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silverpie



Joined: Aug 17, 2014

Post   Posted: Aug 31, 2014 - 02:16 Reply with quote Back to top

mikere wrote:
The odds aren't really that hard to calculate. If you have a 12 man team the chance of a particular player getting mvp x times in y games is (1/12^x)* (11/12^y-x) * y!/(y-x)! if I'm not mistaken.


Almost right. Add an x! to the denominator and it's there. That, and it needs different parentheses:

(1/12)^x * (11/12)^(y-x) / {y!/[x!*(y-x)!]}
mikere



Joined: Apr 08, 2010

Post   Posted: Aug 31, 2014 - 20:58 Reply with quote Back to top

And that's what I get for just working it out before coffee and not looking up the combinations formula! Thanks for the correction.
PaddyMick



Joined: Jan 03, 2012

Post   Posted: Aug 31, 2014 - 21:10 Reply with quote Back to top

The chance of anything happening ever to anyone anywhere is 50/50
pythrr



Joined: Mar 07, 2006

Post   Posted: Aug 31, 2014 - 21:26 Reply with quote Back to top

PaddyMick wrote:
The chance of anything happening ever to anyone anywhere is 50/50


Unless it is a million to one chance. Then it is must always succeed due to narrative logic.

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silverpie



Joined: Aug 17, 2014

Post   Posted: Sep 02, 2014 - 00:06 Reply with quote Back to top

Or due to the use of an Infinite Improbability Drive... hmm, is there a way to make a Secret Weapon out of that?
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