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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 07:05 Reply with quote Back to top

Was thinking about the new client and some of the changes and I just cant get Dirty Players out of my mind and the Gits.

Here is what Iam thinking.

If you have a git there is no reason to back it up with dirty player.

1) If you foul with enough assists to auto break armor you inessence cancel git. If you want to auto break that wardancers armor do it with the DP instead.

Plus the point of the git is to foul but not get sent off IF you do not break armor.

SO here is my big thought.

The ground blitzer!!! every turn your git is assigned only one job. Foul any down player...EVERY TURN. Do not worry about assists and all that, in fact you dont want to many assists. The point of this player is to get a free blitz move on any down player, I here by call it the ground blitz or harken back to 2ED rules and call it a block a down player. Also if your opponeet knows that you are doing this he will...
1)Come after your git with every thing he has.
2)Probally a little less likely to pile on with no cares.
3)and drive your opponeet insane...which is a great advantage for you.

That was my big thought of the day....and of course as I was thinking about this I was looking around and found this great post in another thread....worth reading and understanding the numbers.

*************

(this is what Carnis had to say on the subject)
Never question someone who spouts off stats like this guy!


Actually, I did the numbers 2 years ago when LRB6 beta came out.

Sneaky git is not a horrible pick at all, but to take sneaky git to get DP later is a horrible strategy.

Take guard or dodge. Personally I prefer guard, then block him up later. Then wrestle up the non-double thralls.

What the spamming of numbers below tells us is, that of the skills DP & Sneaky.. DP is the more important one. But if you have both, your optimal opponent armor is 6, not 1. So you need to reduce opponents armor to 6, then foul. This way your foul will go through the armor 25/36 times and cause you to be sent off 8/36 times. Your opponent will be knocked or worse 2.08 times more often, than you will be ejected. At av6 (optimal target) your chance to cause KO or worse is 39%, your chance to cause a casualty is 18% and your chance to get ejected is 18,5%. If you got even one bribe you will almost certainly cause more casualties fouling this way, than get players sent off the pitch. Even without a bribe, you will likely break even, but win cause you cause more KOs than your opponent sends your foulers off.

If you roll double-3s you choose not to use dirty player and stay on the pitch. The 2nd local maximum for Sn/Dp is at AV2, where rolling double 1's you are at better odds than DP alone.

The other benefit of sneaky git is the target player will always be marked, or at least stunned.. So the catastrophe of your fouler being sent off and your target being unharmed is always avoided.

For those interested in the statistics:
LRB6 fouling wrote:

When optimally fouling with no skill, sneaky git, dirty player or sneaky git+dirty player. AV=the armor of the opponent after adding assists. The numbers = chance of said end event (ejection, opponent getting knocked out, opponent becoming a casualty)

abs chance ejected
Av no skill sneaky dirty dirty+sneaky
10 0,1782 0,0370 0,1898 0,0462
09 0,1898 0,0740 0,2052 0,0925
08 0,2052 0,0925 0,2245 0,1111
07 0,2245 0,1388 0,2476 0,1666
06 0,2476 0,1666 0,2669 0,1851
05 0,2669 0,2129 0,2824 0,2314
04 0,2824 0,2457 0,2939 0,2549
03 0,2939 0,2685 0,3016 0,2777
02 0,3016 0,2777 0,3055 0,2777
01 0,3055 0,3055 0,3055 0,3055

abs chance KO (=O)/CAS)(=C)
Av no skill O/C sneaky O/C dirty O/C dirty+sneaky O/C
10 0,034/0,013 0,034/0,014 0,083/0,037 0,072/0,033
09 0,069/0,028 0,069/0,028 0,144/0,065 0,144/0,065
08 0,116/0,046 0,116/0,046 0,220/0,100 0,208/0,096
07 0,174/0,069 0,174/0,069 0,313/0,144 0,313/0,144
06 0,243/0,097 0,243/0,097 0,398/0,185 0,387/0,181
05 0,301/0,120 0,301/0,120 0,468/0,219 0,468/0,219
04 0,347/0,139 0,347/0,139 0,521/0,245 0,509/0,241
03 0,382/0,153 0,382/0,153 0,558/0,264 0,558/0,264
02 0,405/0,162 0,405/0,162 0,579/0,275 0,567/0,270
01 0,417/0,167 0,417/0,167 0,583/0,278 0,583/0,278

Relative chance KO+ vs ejection
Av no skill sneaky dirty dirty+sneaky O/E
10 0,1948 0,9375 0,4390 1,5500
09 0,3659 0,9375 0,6992 1,5500
08 0,5639 1,2500 0,9794 1,8750
07 0,7732 1,2500 1,2617 1,8750
06 0,9813 1,4583 1,4913 2,0880
05 1,1272 1,4130 1,6557 2,0200
04 1,2295 1,4130 1,7717 1,9972
03 1,2992 1,4224 1,8491 2,0083
02 1,3427 1,4583 1,8939 2,0416
01 1,3636 1,3636 1,9091 1,9090

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freak_in_a_frock



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 07:53 Reply with quote Back to top

If the DP +1 is optional then it combines very well with SG. For example if you were fouling an AV8 player on your own and rolled a double 4 for armour break you would then choose not to use DP, so that you wouldn't be sent off, but if you rolled a 5 and a 3 you would choose to use it.
PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 08:53 Reply with quote Back to top

Iam sure that in the new client the +1 for DP is not optional and is allways in effect....otherwise every time you fouled you would get a pop up that says do you wish to use +1 on the armor break......that would be very very annoying. Although technically correct.

On table top it would allways be assumed you are using the +1 inless stated, just like it would be assumed you never use pile on unless stated. The one advantage of table top VS computer, regardless of client used.

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PainState



Joined: Apr 04, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 09:04 Reply with quote Back to top

I fully expect this thread to go on for 10 pages and have around 5,000 views...Just because it is not a thread about B and R and merges, future of Fumbbl with the FFB client, have anything to do with grandfathering of teams, who is more pure, who is better looking and gets us back to just the basics...FOULING!!! we might like or dislike the boot but we all have an oppinon on it.

**This is in regard's to the numerous coaches who "pined" for a good old fashion fouling thread again, even though the original post is serious in nature **

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On1



Joined: Jul 12, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 09:28 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
Iam sure that in the new client the +1 for DP is not optional and is allways in effect....otherwise every time you fouled you would get a pop up that says do you wish to use +1 on the armor break......that would be very very annoying. Although technically correct.

On table top it would allways be assumed you are using the +1 inless stated, just like it would be assumed you never use pile on unless stated. The one advantage of table top VS computer, regardless of client used.


One might argue it would not pop up that much.

If you foul an AV 9 target.. it should only pop up if you roll 9. right? If you roll 8 there would be no point in asking if you wanted to add dp +1...

Easy to implement, and would not disturb the game too much.
Louky



Joined: Dec 29, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 09, 2010 - 10:15 Reply with quote Back to top

Actually with DP alone, the popup would not be visible at all.
The dice rolled,you're either doomed or golden, so you might as well use DP.
No need to ask you for anything.

The popup would only come into play when fouling with a player both Dirty AND Sneaky
AND you happen to hit EXACLTY your opponent real AV which happens to be an even number (including modifiers).
For example : on AV9 or 7 no assist, the popup would never been seen. On AV8 it should pop only for one armor roll : 4/4

This would mean a popup for 1 in 36 fouls for a DP/SG guy. I could definitely live with that.
RedDevilCG



Joined: Jan 09, 2010

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 03:49 Reply with quote Back to top

Or even better, it would only come up on a DOUBLE (not just an even number) + assists that = armour where +1 DP would break armour , and you have sneaky git.

It could be worded as "Do you want to break armour but get sent off?"
On1



Joined: Jul 12, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 06:40 Reply with quote Back to top

RedDevilCG wrote:
Or even better, it would only come up on a DOUBLE (not just an even number) + assists that = armour where +1 DP would break armour , and you have sneaky git.

It could be worded as "Do you want to break armour but get sent off?"


The sum of a double is always an even number Wink

edit: hehe i misread it a bit i think.. But yes you are right, use of dp should only pop up on doubles that totals the AV of the target.


Last edited by On1 on Aug 10, 2010 - 16:43; edited 1 time in total
RedDevilCG



Joined: Jan 09, 2010

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 06:58 Reply with quote Back to top

Correct, however not all even numbers are doubles on two dice, or where you trying to say something else? Wink
Grumbledook



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 14:12 Reply with quote Back to top

PainState wrote:
On table top it would allways be assumed you are using the +1 inless stated, just like it would be assumed you never use pile on unless stated. The one advantage of table top VS computer, regardless of client used.


not quite true, BOTOCS you can select in the options to if you want a pop up coming up if you want to use a skill or not

I have it set for dodge on blocks as well if I want to elect to not use my dodge skill when the opponent picks pushback/pow

so those who think it is annoying can turn it off and have to put up with not having a choice, or those who want the choice can turn it on and have the pop ups, I prefer the latter

no reason this can't be implemented in the new client
JimmyFantastic



Joined: Feb 06, 2007

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 14:20 Reply with quote Back to top

In response to Louky, there is a need because you can get sent off if the injury is a double.
So there would be occasions where say you equal armour after assists but may choose to not use the dp on armour as you would rather not face the 1/6 chance of ejection without +1 to the injury.

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SeraphimRed



Joined: Feb 01, 2004

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 14:31 Reply with quote Back to top

We almost had a fouling thread... but try as you might, you can't escape the pull of the LRB5 client. Wink

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freak_in_a_frock



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 14:37 Reply with quote Back to top

If you wouldn't want to risk to 1 in 6 chance of being sent off on the injury roll, then way bother fouling in the first place? Seems strange you would only carry it through if you got that +1 to injury.

The real point worth making is now that there is no +1 to ff roll for getting 2 casualties, are T16 fouls even more evil, or does the nerf to dp make it more acceptable to foul on T16? Twisted Evil

/me hopes there is a biter
zakatan



Joined: May 17, 2008

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 14:48 Reply with quote Back to top

i made the tables prettier. it's just hard to understand anything in that sea of numbers:

ejection prob
Image

damage prob
Image

eject vs damage
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Rijssiej



Joined: Jan 04, 2005

Post   Posted: Aug 10, 2010 - 15:25 Reply with quote Back to top

What I would like to see added to the tables:
DP not using it on armor unless we rolled a double on armour.
DP+SG never use DP on armour.
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