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Poll
Have you had enough yet?
Yes. I just retired all my elf teams.
22%
 22%  [ 11 ]
I might play a match here and there.
10%
 10%  [ 5 ]
NEVER!!! I'm ready for 69 more seasons!
20%
 20%  [ 10 ]
I've had about enough of these forum threads.
14%
 14%  [ 7 ]
Stepping on the scale tells me, "that's enough pie."
20%
 20%  [ 10 ]
There's never enough poll options...
14%
 14%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 50


pizzamogul



Joined: Jun 13, 2005

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 15:48 Reply with quote Back to top

He won playing 16 matches!

Here's the list:

Lab Rats From Sector 13.75 Skaven 2730k 29 4/0/1 80k 3 - 1 1700k 16 1/1/0 50k 35000
Stinkfist's All-Stars Nurgle 2680k 20 2/0/0 70k 3 - 0 2180k 14 3/0/0 30k 37000
~Overpowered~ Dark Elf 2820k 22 1/2/0 80k 2 - 1 2030k 16 5/0/0 30k 35000
Beat em or Beat em Ogre 2840k 24 3/1/0 50k 3 - 0 2900k 11 1/2/0 50k 29000
Pooplers Chaos Chosen 2570k 13 0/0/0 50k 2 - 0 2430k 11 1/1/0 30k 35000
Tutor Elf Mistico Elven Union 2410k 18 3/1/0 50k 2 - 0 2870k 14 2/0/1 70k 41000
Grin Bay Soul Snackers Vampire 2730k 16 0/0/0 70k 2 - 1 2680k 11 0/0/1 20k 44000
BigDogs4 Chaos Chosen 2710k 19 2/0/0 70k 3 - 0 2000k 8 0/1/0 10k 34000
Be Why You High Elf 2590k 23 3/0/1 60k 3 - 0 1910k 10 0/1/0 10k 35000
Tutor Elf Mistico Elven Union 2600k 17 4/2/1 70k 1 - 3 3050k 22 2/1/0 60k 40000
Krug's Krushers Chaos Dwarf 2620k 17 1/0/0 40k 3 - 0 2010k 9 1/0/1 40k 29000
Tutor Elf Mistico Elven Union 2800k 19 5/0/0 60k 2 - 1 2870k 13 1/0/0 40k 38000
Sins And Punishment Dark Elf 2820k 31 2/1/0 50k 4 - 0 1880k 8 1/0/1 60k 29000
Splatsmashers of Gunk Chaos Renegades 2750k 17 1/4/0 70k 1 - 0 2280k 13 3/1/0 50k 37000
Morena Skaven 2600k 11 3/0/0 30k 0 - 2 2370k 19 2/1/1 60k 45000
Cacalotes de Tulum Dwarf 2680k 16 2/0/1 70k 2 - 0 1990k 7 1/0/0 20k 36000

If you click on a team there's a "Show Matches" option underneath the Bio. You can scroll to the bottom where the newest matches are located as they are in chronological order and, by clicking on the Match Result, find the first one played during the season's date range and explore from there.

Page looks like this: https://fumbbl.com/p/team?op=view&showmatches=1&team_id=652495

_________________
"Don't expect mercy."
-Woodstock
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 16:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Thanks pizzamogul!
Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 17:50 Reply with quote Back to top

Nelphine wrote:
Oh that's awesome. Although I prefer to keep track of number of failures and number of success compared to the expected, because number of 1's or pows is too small a portion, but no matter.

How many games did you play in the last cycle may I ask?


POW ratio and 8+ gives information on your attrition.
1s on d6 gives information on how many times you were destined to fail something.
Overall dice gives team potential.

the goal is to see which of these parameters best correlates to outcome.

thanks Pizza for answering his other question. I would have had to hunt quite a bit to find game total.

_________________
Hail to Tail Gunner! The latest charioteer to DIE for bloodbowl! - Slain, by Knuckle Grinders
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 18:35 Reply with quote Back to top

Right but pow total and 1s gives the same result whether your players are blogging elves, or unskilled khemri. That means those two teams look like they have the same level of 'bad' dice, whereas in reality the khemri may have actually had a great game..

For instance, your Blodger elf tries to pick up the ball 4 times, and fails 3 times (1,1,1,6).

Your elf is quite unlucky - only 1/216 games will he fail the first 3 tries.

Your khemri skeleton rolls the same dice, and while unlucky, you can expect that same result to happen 1 out of 8 games. Because results matter, not the actual dice rolls.

The Elf is far unluckier than the skeleton.

Similarly, watching pows only gives accurate results when a non tackle, non wrestle player (may even need non strip ball) hits a blodger. But against a rookie skeleton (and the attacker has block) the block could have succeeded on a both down or a pow/push as well. I can absolutely be far luckier than my opponent if he rolls 30% pows and I roll 0 pows.
Arktoris



Joined: Feb 16, 2004

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 18:45 Reply with quote Back to top

while there are certain tasks and certain teams need higher than a 2+ to succeed...a 1 is always a fail.

I'm looking at how often the RNG "destined" your team and your opponent's team to fail, no matter the odds during that particular game.

Yes, this will not show perfect linearity between win/loss ratio to d6 success, but hopefully a trend over many games...or not. In which case, you've determined that is not the dominating parameter of the equation.

Doing it your way would require a very complicated spreadsheet that would also require reviewing the play back of every game. I'm too lazy for that Very Happy

_________________
Hail to Tail Gunner! The latest charioteer to DIE for bloodbowl! - Slain, by Knuckle Grinders
Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: Jan 03, 2020 - 18:51 Reply with quote Back to top

I know... *Sadface* I did it for a few games a while back though. I think if I could automate the final 'luck score' I'd probably do it more (meaning, if I fail 9 3+ checks out of 30, how lucky or unlucky am I?) but I haven't sat down to figure that out yet.

If I did, I'd make a more complete version of candlejacks spread, and just punch in '15 4+ attempted, 3 fail' and have my spreadsheet tell me the luck for that. Then have a final luck calculator at the bottom that accounts for all categories.
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