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2022-08-29 22:10:23
2 votes, rating 6
2 votes, rating 6
Star Usage Stats from UI XVIII Qualifiers
I wanted to see if Stars were good, so I went and counted each time a Star Player was bought in the Ulthuan Invitational qualifier matches. Here's the data.
Overall 56 stars were taken in Qualifiers.
I counted matches where it went to an OT kick-off as a draw (0.5-0.5).
Each of their records were (and keep in mind, these sample sizes are tiny):
Bomber: 9.5-5.5 (Orcs 0-4, Underworld 3-0, Goblins 2-1, Chorfs 2-0, Ogres 1.5-.5, Black Orcs 1-0. Not included: 1 game where both teams bought him)
Morg: 6.5-8.5 (Zons 1-3, Snots 1.5-2.5, Underworld 2-0, Orcs 1-1, Flings 0-1, Imperials 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Deeproot: 1.5-2.5 (Dorfs 0.5-0.5, Flings 0-1, Humans 0-1, Norse 1-0)
Griff: 3-1 (Ogres 3-0, Imperials 0-1)
Hakflem 1.5-2.5 (Snots 1.5-1.5, Goblins 0-1)
Frank n Stein: 1-1 (Necro 0-1, Undead 1-0)
Karla von Kill: 1-1 (Lizzies 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Akhorne: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Wilhelm Chaney: 1-0 (Undead)
Eldril: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Fungus: 1-0 (Chorfs)
Gloriel: 0-1 (Dark Elves)
Helmut: 0-1 (Khemri)
Varag: 0-1 (Orc)
Kreek 1-0 (Chaos)
Some notes from this data:
Morg and Griff, the two stars who were used in Dark and Light qualifiers, both did better in Dark. Morg was 4.5-3.5 in Dark and 2-5 in Light, while Griff went 3-0 in Dark and 0-1 in Light. Overall, stars were 21.5-15.5 in Dark qualifiers and 4.5-11.5 in Light ones. Again, this is a small sample size, but quite lopsided results. Personally, I'd attribute it to more cheap stars in Dark, and also Snots and UW both being good (and usually inducing a lot of stuff).
There was a lot more treasury-buying of stars in Dark, but it didn't work particularly well, with Bomber going 4.5-3.5 from treasury and Helmut 0-1. Interestingly, nobody did this in Light qualifiers. Light, for real; but also fewer cheap stars. Anecdotally, as someone who overbuys bomber often (although not in this sample), I think it's easy to overvalue him and lose control of the pitch. But he's also definitely OP.
For this blog post I went back and also found the stats on Wizards. Wizards went 12.5-11.5 overall, similar to the 27-27 put up by Stars. My overall conclusion on stars is that Griff and Bomber are really good, Morg is a great way to make up 300k but it's always tough to be a heavy underdog (could say the same for Deeproot), and I'd guess most other stars are worse than wizards.
GGs to all my UI opponents and glhf to everyone in the main tournament.
-astro
Overall 56 stars were taken in Qualifiers.
I counted matches where it went to an OT kick-off as a draw (0.5-0.5).
Each of their records were (and keep in mind, these sample sizes are tiny):
Bomber: 9.5-5.5 (Orcs 0-4, Underworld 3-0, Goblins 2-1, Chorfs 2-0, Ogres 1.5-.5, Black Orcs 1-0. Not included: 1 game where both teams bought him)
Morg: 6.5-8.5 (Zons 1-3, Snots 1.5-2.5, Underworld 2-0, Orcs 1-1, Flings 0-1, Imperials 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Deeproot: 1.5-2.5 (Dorfs 0.5-0.5, Flings 0-1, Humans 0-1, Norse 1-0)
Griff: 3-1 (Ogres 3-0, Imperials 0-1)
Hakflem 1.5-2.5 (Snots 1.5-1.5, Goblins 0-1)
Frank n Stein: 1-1 (Necro 0-1, Undead 1-0)
Karla von Kill: 1-1 (Lizzies 0-1, Woodies 1-0)
Akhorne: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Wilhelm Chaney: 1-0 (Undead)
Eldril: 0-1 (Pro Elves)
Fungus: 1-0 (Chorfs)
Gloriel: 0-1 (Dark Elves)
Helmut: 0-1 (Khemri)
Varag: 0-1 (Orc)
Kreek 1-0 (Chaos)
Some notes from this data:
Morg and Griff, the two stars who were used in Dark and Light qualifiers, both did better in Dark. Morg was 4.5-3.5 in Dark and 2-5 in Light, while Griff went 3-0 in Dark and 0-1 in Light. Overall, stars were 21.5-15.5 in Dark qualifiers and 4.5-11.5 in Light ones. Again, this is a small sample size, but quite lopsided results. Personally, I'd attribute it to more cheap stars in Dark, and also Snots and UW both being good (and usually inducing a lot of stuff).
There was a lot more treasury-buying of stars in Dark, but it didn't work particularly well, with Bomber going 4.5-3.5 from treasury and Helmut 0-1. Interestingly, nobody did this in Light qualifiers. Light, for real; but also fewer cheap stars. Anecdotally, as someone who overbuys bomber often (although not in this sample), I think it's easy to overvalue him and lose control of the pitch. But he's also definitely OP.
For this blog post I went back and also found the stats on Wizards. Wizards went 12.5-11.5 overall, similar to the 27-27 put up by Stars. My overall conclusion on stars is that Griff and Bomber are really good, Morg is a great way to make up 300k but it's always tough to be a heavy underdog (could say the same for Deeproot), and I'd guess most other stars are worse than wizards.
GGs to all my UI opponents and glhf to everyone in the main tournament.
-astro
Comments
Posted by Java on 2022-08-29 22:59:47
Good man! Also went back and looked at wizards, top job!
IMHO stars aren't a huge skewing factor in majors because developed teams can deal with them more easily, but maybe the dataset is still too small. We shall see how the FUMBBL cup pans out.
IMHO stars aren't a huge skewing factor in majors because developed teams can deal with them more easily, but maybe the dataset is still too small. We shall see how the FUMBBL cup pans out.
Posted by Astrolonim on 2022-08-30 01:35:25
I agree, in general: higher tv teams do better vs star-abuse strategies. Also the sample size is definitely too small. I'd love to see better stats: I imagine Griff has the best winrate of all stars, and Bomber the highest usage.
I do think there are 2 strategies that are very strong.
1. As far as I can tell only a few players went for a bomber-planned strategy and we were mostly quite successful (I buy him every game, plus a gob, UW, and black orc player). Obviously this is cherrypicking but the four of us went 8-0, and won all 3 of our qualifiers (an orc player also kinda did this and lost, and I think Nelphine planned to except Strider beat him, so you could say we went 3 for 5, still a great record). I think the thing about bomber is that you can buy him every game, even from ahead. Especially for UW and Gobs who get 50k bribes it's just vicious.
2. Griff and Ogres are just insane. Strider is the one playing the Ogres so maybe it looks worse when other people do it but the synergy there is amazing. A blodger, ag4, reroll, no bonehead ball carrier? No-brainer. It seems like this is a problem in RRRs too.
We miss out on problems with Morg though. I think when you're actually 300 behind, Morg usually makes it up but isn't insane. But a rookie team vs a 700 tv team is not a real difference of 300k. The rookie team's got no skills and is about to get pummeled by s6 block mb+2, and the 700k team just had to give up rerolls or spare players.
I do think there are 2 strategies that are very strong.
1. As far as I can tell only a few players went for a bomber-planned strategy and we were mostly quite successful (I buy him every game, plus a gob, UW, and black orc player). Obviously this is cherrypicking but the four of us went 8-0, and won all 3 of our qualifiers (an orc player also kinda did this and lost, and I think Nelphine planned to except Strider beat him, so you could say we went 3 for 5, still a great record). I think the thing about bomber is that you can buy him every game, even from ahead. Especially for UW and Gobs who get 50k bribes it's just vicious.
2. Griff and Ogres are just insane. Strider is the one playing the Ogres so maybe it looks worse when other people do it but the synergy there is amazing. A blodger, ag4, reroll, no bonehead ball carrier? No-brainer. It seems like this is a problem in RRRs too.
We miss out on problems with Morg though. I think when you're actually 300 behind, Morg usually makes it up but isn't insane. But a rookie team vs a 700 tv team is not a real difference of 300k. The rookie team's got no skills and is about to get pummeled by s6 block mb+2, and the 700k team just had to give up rerolls or spare players.
Posted by Java on 2022-08-31 11:25:09
Morg is definitely less of a problem for a 1.5+ mil team than for a 1 mil team, I didn't even expect him to appear so much TBH, and the record kinda shows the diminishing returns