Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 09:13:42

I'm a bit surprised it sais on a kick in the middle I still have a 5% touch back chance. I don't think I can recall an instance with no particular kick-off event (could only be bad weather i think) where this ever happened to me.

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 09:15:06

I'm not 100% sure but I think it's missing a square in the lenght...

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 09:20:52

I'm not sure whether the big white line represents the line of scrimmage or the TD-line but maybe it just counts probabilities past the line as touch backs...

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 09:26:10

Nah the line is ok... I think it is accounting for bad whether tho... otherwise some of these predicitions are merely impossible.. ...But 5 % touchbacks I dunno... still seems like an awfull lot.

Posted by Overhamsteren on 2014-09-21 09:53:37

Not bad weather, perfect weather :P

But yeah if you kick in the middle and choose 'kick skill always leave 1 sqaure to the sideline' it has a 0.3% chance of touchback so must account for perfect weather too.

Not sure about the 5% touchback but when I don't have kick I always kick in the middle and I definitely give away touchbacks now and then.

Posted by MonkeyMan576 on 2014-09-21 09:57:07

Is it just me or does the 6 come up more often than the other results on fumbbl during kickoffs?

Posted by MonkeyMan576 on 2014-09-21 09:57:07

Is it just me or does the 6 come up more often than the other results on fumbbl during kickoffs?

Posted by Overhamsteren on 2014-09-21 10:00:13

Just you ;)

Although I believe there is a correlation between how close a player with kick off return gets to the ball and the occurrence of the High Kick - kick off result. :P

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 15:59:44

I made a quick estimate based on the numbers the chart gives out. The touchback chance without weather should be around 3.6%, six squares from of where it can bounce out in 3 squares each with a 0.2% chance.

The remaining 1.7% can be explained with weather. Should be ~13.9% for the event to occur and a number of scenarios to bounce out in all directions.

I guess the frontline estimates are a bit problematic because they will always heavily scewerd by players standing there. In case of the middle square on the line it is almost certain that it will be occupied, with the squares next to it occupied too there is an increased chance to bounce out, on the other hand may there be multiple catch chances to prevent the bounce.
Considering the overall percentage these scenarios may be too significant to neglect in considerations.

Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2014-09-21 16:00:35

The line is the endzone. 5% is fine, do the maths.

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 16:04:01

With regard to what the statistics say about getting out of bounds, I'm right now uncertain whether I only get to use the kick skill before the kick-off event is rolled for. Iirc the ball is placed before the event, but the execution comes after. Then it should be possible no react to a bad weather event, no?

Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2014-09-21 16:09:48

4.6875% without weather. Don't know how u got 3.6

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 16:19:33

Going based on the numbers the calculator provides, it should be a 0.2% chance on 18 squares to bounce out... but I suppose an exact calculation would be 1/6*6/8*3/8... but who could calculate that?

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 16:28:16

No offense Jimmeh if you wrote that thing but besides being wrong I'll continue to articulate my discontent with this thing... it's poor programming.. you see how it bases its numbers on actual kick-off attempts and statistical outcome rather than probabilties? it's a huge waste of ressources... don't forget to click stop..

Posted by uuni on 2014-09-21 16:38:42

Simulator says 5.3%, 1/6*6/8*3/8 is indeed 0.046875 as Jimmy says. I guess it runs some kickoff table simulation also or something?

For me touchback has happened often with a sixer even from middle.

Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2014-09-21 16:40:06

No idea who made it. It is kind of cool though.

Posted by Rabe on 2014-09-21 17:22:07

I like it. Especially since it confirmed that I'm kicking rather well and could sometimes even be a bit more daring. :-)

Posted by Wreckage on 2014-09-21 20:26:05

What do you do to kick well?

Posted by Mr_Foulscumm on 2014-09-22 05:15:52

Kick off simulator: Blitz

Posted by the_Sage on 2014-09-22 10:48:12

Reading the title at first I did think it would be a kick-off event sim, rather than a kick landing and bounce sim. =)

Posted by Roland on 2014-09-22 12:46:25

ooh, I'm kicking pretty good it seems :)

Posted by Rabe on 2014-09-22 13:28:59

@Wreckage:
I instinctively never kicked closer to a sideline than 4 squares, which makes a huge difference. It's pretty safe to aim there, even without Kick.

Posted by Overhamsteren on 2014-09-22 17:35:26

> it's poor programming.. you see how it bases its numbers
>on actual kick-off attempts and statistical outcome rather
>than probabilties? it's a huge waste of ressources...
>don't forget to click stop..

So you are saying that 1 million samples per second is not pretty much identical to calculated probabilities?

My guess is that coding 3 moves (scatter, weather, bounce) is a lot faster than calculating probabilities for God knows how many squares. Would even go as far and say this programming is a lot more clever than what you would do.

As for wasting resources it's probably extremely negligible to produce those samples compared to any other stuff that a computer is running all the time. Just a guess though.

Posted by Nightbird on 2014-09-23 02:16:50

All these numbers, maths & probabilities make me maaaaaad...
Just play!