Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:23 |
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as usual i asked my friends for some mathemtic help. and as usual they can calculate me all but nothing useful ^^
my problem
i want to know the cas rate of some events in LRB 5.0
claw alone
claw + mighty blow
claw + mighty blow + pilling on
claw + mighty blow + pilling on ONLY for injury roll
claw i got this myself
15/36*1/6
claw + mighty
15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6
the more honourful part i give to your more mathematic genius |
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Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:24 |
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ah pls post the formula so i can learn something ^^ |
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Optihut
Joined: Dec 16, 2004
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:39 |
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"shall vanguard go back to school ? yes its really to easy"
Was that on purpose? |
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Britnoth
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:43 |
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LRB5 Claw + MB + PO, where you only want a casualty (ie rerolling a KO for injury) is 31%
and if you have claw + mb id be rerolling armour every time, so no idea about only on just injury... extimate half way between without PO and always using it? |
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f0rd
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:45 |
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claw + mighty blow + pilling on : 21/36 * (15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 ) + 15/36 * (1-(26/36*26/36)) could be right |
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Sleep
Joined: Feb 09, 2005
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 18:55 |
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1+2=57 |
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nin
Joined: May 27, 2005
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 19:00 |
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do you really want to know? |
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Enar
Joined: Mar 05, 2004
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  Posted:
Dec 17, 2006 - 19:20 |
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Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:02 |
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damn you all
i had to calculate it myself ... and the result is scary... really scary
so i show you the result and let you test it
claw + mighty + pilling
i splitt it in 3 parts
first event: no armor break roll 2-6, so pilling on
15/36*15/36*10/36+1/6*1/6 = 7.6 %
second event: armor roll 7, so mighty blow use
1/6*1/6+1/6*1/6 = 5.56 %
third event: armor roll 8, so pilling + mighty on inj
15/36*10/36+15/36*10/36 = 23.15 %
total scary 36.30 % not to mention kos ^^ |
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SnakeSanders
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:27 |
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fen wrote: | hunter wrote: | Britnoth wrote: | 5. Claw mb PO all on 3 normal skill rolls. Claw in vault is BETTER than LRB claw on av9, as you can now stack claw + mighty blow on the armour roll. these 3 skills on av9 give 31% chance to cas per knockdown, thats plain sick. |
Please show how you calculated this.
Thanks,
~hunter |
Laffin_Loon @ Specialist Games wrote: |
On a discussion about chaos and mutations I calculated the probablilities of injury in various circumstances. With piling on I assumed that KOs were rerolled (I'm a real chaos player).
Here you go (copy/paste job).....
Old claw+2 and RSC+2 (2 abilities) will cause a casualty at the following percentages of successful blocks...
AV7: 30.0% .......... AV8: 24.3% .......... AV9: 17.4%
New Claw with MB and POn (3 abilities) assuming that you re-roll knocked outs...
AV7: 31.0% ........... AV8: 31.0% ......... AV9: 31.0%
A bog standard player - for those who don't know - has probabilities of..
AV7: 6.9% ......... AV8: 4.6% ............ AV9: 2.7%
And that human MB POn blitzer (2 skills)...
AV7: 31.0% ......... AV8: 21.0% ............ AV9: 16.0% |
That's where 31% comes from. If you sit down and work out the %s (Including rerolling KOs or lower for PO) then it'll come out like those.
Remember that the general on pitch bloodiness has been turned up somewhat because aging has been removed. This is why the Apoth is weaker and there is the ability for certain players to become killing machines. Of course, they jury is still out where Claw/PO/MB is concerned. It might possibly destroy the ability for Orcs/Dwarfs and other High AV teams to function against Chaos/Nurgle/Chaos Dwarf. Resulting in them avoiding those match ups in open leagues...
Edit: You'll also notice that the Human MB/PO Blitzer is nearly as lethal as the LRB4.0 Claw/RSC player. |
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Emphasy
Joined: Jun 14, 2004
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:30 |
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All this sounds good, but since the random dice generator sucks here you cant really count on math etc as you know you'll get F-ed over when trying to do so:) |
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Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:42 |
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i think the Loon miss the av 7 roll + mighty blow and so he has 5 % lower than me
and cheer ... at 2 trait ww will be such a pain ... really annoying, and you dont have a good dp to remove him -.- |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:45 |
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I think I did some calculation somewhere else either. 31% cas rate is too low. That sucks. A 9 players DP foul is a 41.6% cas chances... And they did worser...So much for more bloodiness. |
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pac
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 17:52 |
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sk8bcn wrote: | I think I did some calculation somewhere else either. 31% cas rate is too low. That sucks. A 9 players DP foul is a 41.6% cas chances... And they did worser...So much for more bloodiness. |
But how many 9-player DP fouls do you get to make per game? Without Get the Ref, or Bribe the Ref, or lots and lots of DPs against a weaker team, probably just 2 or 3?
You can make an MB/PO/(Claw) blitz every turn (and maybe some blocks too), with no fears of being sent off - until your opponent runs out of players, of course! |
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Vanguard
Joined: Nov 01, 2003
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  Posted:
Dec 18, 2006 - 18:03 |
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a player 9 foul has a 27% chance to make a cas .... and if you compare it to the 36 % of a block and you compare the risk then its a joke -.-
no rr of the inj roll .... |
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