CircularLogic
Joined: Aug 22, 2003
|
  Posted:
Jan 28, 2009 - 19:36 |
|
If you have DP, it`s for a cas. And I consider DP a given in competitive fouling :p |
|
|
BooAhl
Joined: Sep 02, 2004
|
  Posted:
Jan 29, 2009 - 17:04 |
|
BooAhl wrote: | CircularLogic wrote: | Actually, as long as you have argue the call and have so many assists, that your AV will always succeed, chances for cas and ejection are the same. |
0%? |
Sorry just realized I mixed up argue the call with GTR. Because when you have GTR there is a 0% chance to get sent off when fouling. |
|
|
Frankenstein
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
  Posted:
Jan 29, 2009 - 17:37 |
|
CircularLogic wrote: | If you have DP, it`s for a cas. And I consider DP a given in competitive fouling :p |
Competitive Fouling will make a very good name for my next khemri side.
Thanks for the inspiration, man! |
|
|
Baki
Joined: Nov 03, 2008
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 07:35 |
|
Do i see this right? When both teams got exact the same strength (s1 and s2 are variables for team strength i think?) than p (winning chance) will be 1(=100%) for both coaches? |
|
|
sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 11:00 |
|
Baki wrote: | Do i see this right? When both teams got exact the same strength (s1 and s2 are variables for team strength i think?) than p (winning chance) will be 1(=100%) for both coaches? |
No:
http://fumbbl.com/help:Ranking
There the racial charts that comes into play too:
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats&op=rankings
So indeed this is only true for same race's matches.
Exemple: two TS 150 teams face each other. Orcs vs Khemri. The probability of orcs winning is 51.29%
As I assume that BR doesn't come into play in the formula, p=1, so P=p^(5^(1-2*0.5129))= hey wait = 1 then.
Am I wrong somewhere?
The racial chart doesn't count in equal TS matchs? That's kinda wrong to me. |
_________________ Join NL Raises from the Ashes |
|
Nemeton
Joined: Dec 13, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 12:03 |
|
So the racial chart is TS and not TR?
BTW, what about the win probabilities when the races arent within the same category? Say a 125 vs a 135 which is two different categories or even 125 vs 155 which is even further removed in the categories - how do you see the win probabilities for those matches? |
|
|
Unstoffe
Joined: Aug 22, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 12:17 |
|
Hmm... I think the problem must be the way the formula comes out with p=1 initially, surely for an exactly equal matchup it should be .5. If so, then for Orcs v Khemri the value for P would be .48552 which seems a bit more reasonable.
I suspect there is a little bit more to the formulae than is given on those pages. For instance, as per Nemeton's question there must be some way of deciding what racial factor values to use if the two teams are in different TS brackets. |
_________________ British or thereabouts? Check out the White Isle League |
|
sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 13:37 |
|
Unstoffe wrote: | Hmm... I think the problem must be the way the formula comes out with p=1 initially, surely for an exactly equal matchup it should be .5. If so, then for Orcs v Khemri the value for P would be .48552 which seems a bit more reasonable.
I suspect there is a little bit more to the formulae than is given on those pages. For instance, as per Nemeton's question there must be some way of deciding what racial factor values to use if the two teams are in different TS brackets. |
oh yes true!
Stupid me, it is 1/(1+1^(dS/70)) which makes 0.5.
Hence, there's an effect |
_________________ Join NL Raises from the Ashes |
|
Unstoffe
Joined: Aug 22, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 14:06 |
|
Actually, I think the correct formula for p (for Ranked) should be:
1/ (1 + 10 ^ ((dR / 40) + (dT / 70)))
This will give a value ranging from .5 (for equal CR and TS), increasing towards 1 as dR and/or dT increase. If it was 1^ rather than 10^ then p would always be .5.
Obviously for BlackBox you remove the '(dR / 40) +' bit.
So, I think a fairly crucial ^ symbol is missing from the help page... not sure I'm quite confident enough to edit it though |
_________________ British or thereabouts? Check out the White Isle League |
|
sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 17:00 |
|
Unstoffe wrote: | Actually, I think the correct formula for p (for Ranked) should be:
1/ (1 + 10 ^ ((dR / 40) + (dT / 70)))
This will give a value ranging from .5 (for equal CR and TS), increasing towards 1 as dR and/or dT increase. If it was 1^ rather than 10^ then p would always be .5.
Obviously for BlackBox you remove the '(dR / 40) +' bit.
So, I think a fairly crucial ^ symbol is missing from the help page... not sure I'm quite confident enough to edit it though |
yeah mistyped this time.
The ^ symbol is useless as the rest of the formula is written at the top (en exposant in french, don't know how to translate) |
_________________ Join NL Raises from the Ashes |
|
westerner
Joined: Jul 02, 2008
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 17:40 |
|
sk8bcn wrote: | (en exposant in french, don't know how to translate) |
exponent |
_________________ \x/es |
|
Unstoffe
Joined: Aug 22, 2004
|
  Posted:
Feb 06, 2009 - 17:51 |
|
Wow, it's been so long since I used pen and paper to do maths, completely forgot that you can use superscript to denote an exponent. So much easier to use ^ when typing. Good thing I didn't start editing the page |
_________________ British or thereabouts? Check out the White Isle League |
|
Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
|
  Posted:
Feb 16, 2009 - 06:38 |
|
Instead of Blackbox being an own league, how about making it an optional tool for all leagues? (especially Ranked and Stunty). |
_________________ Join the SWL
Get your team bios here!
Putting the romantic in necromantic since 2010 |
|
johan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
  Posted:
Feb 27, 2009 - 10:53 |
|
Christer, any plans for when the (ahem) Black Box Testing will be finished, and we'll go to a full roll-out?
Or will it be like Gmail, technically still in its Beta after five years? |
_________________ ”It's very sad
To see the ancient and distinguished game that used to be
A model of decorum and tranquillity
Become like any other sport, a battleground...”
—Benny Andersson & Björn Ulvaeus, Chess |
|
xcver
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
|
  Posted:
Feb 27, 2009 - 11:11 |
|
johan wrote: | Christer, any plans for when the (ahem) Black Box Testing will be finished, and we'll go to a full roll-out?
Or will it be like Gmail, technically still in its Beta after five years? |
hey, Google Earth came finally out of beta phase with version 6!!! |
_________________ "Power without perception is virtually useless and therefore of no true value!" - Ryouken - Master of the Hokuto no Ken Martial Arts |
|
|