Alzhaid
Joined: Sep 21, 2007
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 Posted:
Sep 12, 2009 - 14:49 |
 
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Hello,
In the last days I had a match in which my opponent was very angry about his luck, to the point that he or she (let's pick he) wrote how angry he was in the match report. Today, I saw he was complaining about another match in a Blog post, considering it the worse match ever. According to the comments to that post, it seems people don't agree with him.
I must admit that the luck in this game is very important, but it is also important in Poker and anyway I suppose there are champions of the world who consistenly win tornaments (I've just checked wikipedia and I found a guy called Bertrand Grospellier, for example) basing their play on strategy and tactics. The same, I guess, happens in BloodBowl.
Apart from that, sometimes you perceive you have bad luck, like my opponent did, when you in fact you didn't because you forgot about THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS OF YOUR PAST ACTIONS.
As an example, he complained a lot about failing a dodge, when his elves just fail at 1s. "I had an 83% success chance!!" he yelled. But I think probability it's a tricky thing. In that turn, he made several other moves, let's say blocking down my ball carrier without block skill (if I'm not mistaken, only 33% of success chance), me failing catching the ball (66%), he picking up the ball (66%) and dodging (83%). TOGETHER I think that the probability of ALL that actions to happen succesfully it's 83% * 66% * 66% * 33% = 12%
When you dodged, it's very true that the probability of success was 83%, with no influence of the past. However, it's not less true than the probability of success WHEN YOU STARTED THE WHOLE CHAIN OF ACTIONS, and by success meaning smashing my ball carrier, getting the rebounding ball and dodge away with it, was only 12%. Maybe you didn't had bad luck, but you CHOSE to PLAY a whole chain of actions with low probability of success.
May I ask what's your opinion (if there is somebody who reads this)?  |
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Calcium
Joined: Apr 08, 2007
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| Posted:
Sep 12, 2009 - 14:56 |
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Really best not to think about it too much. Reading your post has made my brain ache, and there must be a shed load of old posts on this subject.
Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield. |
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Alzhaid
Joined: Sep 21, 2007
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| Posted:
Sep 12, 2009 - 14:59 |
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It's true, it must be a quite old discussion. I still get mad when somebody complains too much about luck and that's why I started thinking about it, sorry for the head ache  |
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asharak
Joined: Nov 27, 2007
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Sep 12, 2009 - 15:01 |
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Yeah, I've often found people complaining about their luck after a failed action right at the end of a turn where everything else worked.... its somewhat amusing! One of the best ones was someone who failed a 4+ dodge with a reroll and moaned at failing it with 75% chance of success, when they'd just made a 6+ pass & a 6+ catch! Yes, it was slightly unlucky to fail the dodge, but given the stupidly low chance of the whole thing happening it seemed only fair to me
That said, when you fail something easy early in your turn it can get very annoying - I had a game a while ago where i was very low on players as wood elves and had to start my turn with a 2+ dodge with dodge skill, snake eyes. Next turn, exactly the same. Very frustrating! However especially as elves I often make 2+ with reroll dodges so it is inevitable I'll fail some eventually and indeed failing two turns in a row is 1/1296 which sounds low, but given how often I make the action is again inevitable really. |
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Give a man a fire and he will be warm for the rest of the day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life. |
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Dynamix
Joined: Jan 21, 2009
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Sep 12, 2009 - 15:20 |
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One must accept that there is a certain possibilty of failure , ie a '1' when only 2 is needed .
A certain percentage rolls are bound to fail . Its the perception of the statistical possibilty , and the variance from the expected which upsets people sometimes .
Try a string of rolls and at some point the percentages catch up with you .
We have no right to 'expect' the RNG/Dice will obey expectations , but it is Human nature to get a bit miffed if we percieve our ' luck ' varies too much from expected
What we want to achieve in the game is ultimately decided by those Bloody ' Dice '
I am currently going through a 'percieved ' run of poor dice , when AG4 fail Dodge and GFI on first attempts , multi double - skulls , hardly any POWs , few injuries to AV 7 opponents yet more than 6 a game of my AV8+ get put in the box , but opponents AG3 dodge at will and 'never' fail GFI's .
But if my perception is actually true , its only one of those clusters of poor dice that happen and hopefully will balance out with a run of good 'Dice' ( I hope )
The 'Package' we bring to a game consist of:
Our coaching skill
Our team
Our Dice rolls
The dice are like a F1 car , if they are way down on competitive-ness there is poor chance even a great driver / Coach can win |
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Bascrebolder
Joined: Nov 19, 2004
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Sep 12, 2009 - 15:32 |
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Indeed an old discussion but at least an interesting one imho.
And I think the original poster has it right.
Many ppl complaining when there is absolutely no reason to do so. On the other hand sometimes I can understand the complaining very well...
Two matches ago my opponent had a total dice-rape against me while playing very well. This time it was the ref that was to blame as my fouls were never ever caught (even with the eye on me) and were totally devastating. I know I would moan just as much as my opponent did that match...
And I will complain a bit in situations that are really really unlucky. Like getting a double skull - RR double skull on a crucial block... (hapened to me recently)... or the one where it took me four turns to pick up the ball with my elves ( snaked the pick up three turns in a row blowing all my RR's and chance to win).
Btw I like the comparison with races. Indeed it's all about team, coaching skill and luck... |
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Shraaaag
Joined: Feb 15, 2004
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Sep 12, 2009 - 18:46 |
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I have no problem understanding why people whine about 1 single failed roll after succeeding several outrageous ones. You build up blood pressure and excitment, and when it ends in a fail, ofc things boils over. I can also see the frustration in playing an entire game where nothing works (who haven't played games where your opponent starts by injuring your entire LoS, then you fail your first action). But I've never felt compelled to brag about my bad luck in blogs, IRC or on the forum. Luck is like a rollercoaster, it goes up and down, the important thing is that you're having fun. If you feel you've been cheated by nuffle and need to went yourself, take a humourisitc spin on it, and write it in the game report.
PS! Whining in a blog, IRC or on the forum is alot better than throwing your computer out the window, but if you whine too much, people will wish you had |
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Wreckage
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
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Sep 12, 2009 - 23:18 |
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edit: originally I thought about mentioning my blog but after rethinking it I feel like this is advertising blogs what I don't wanna do... so now since I can't delete this message.... my apologies....
and go on guys to wine about the wine! ... and don't get drunk from it too much... |
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Dynamix
Joined: Jan 21, 2009
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| Posted:
Sep 12, 2009 - 23:35 |
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I tell ya , its gets hard to stay objective about this subject during an extended bad run of dice |
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