albinv
Joined: Sep 15, 2012
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  Posted:
Aug 10, 2015 - 14:40 |
 
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Great summary gjopie - thanks. |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Aug 18, 2015 - 11:29 |
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Time for the next two sets of end of season analysis! We'll start with the more confusing picture of the Albion Conference, where the top eight teams are all hoping for a Cup spot...
Albion Conference
In pole position are Castle Drachenfels. They win the conference if they win their final game. A draw is unlikely to be enough, due to their relatively weak tie-breaker score, but it would guarantee them a spot in the Challenge Cup. If the lose, they could easily fall out of the Cup places.
Their opponents are the second-placed Diseased Wasters. If they win, they are favourites for their second conference championship due to their slightly better tie-breaker score, but there are so many teams on 5 points that it is in no way guaranteed. A draw would not be enough for them to definitely secure a place in the Cup: they would also need a lot of teams below them to draw. The only thing that is guaranteed is that a loss would mean they miss out.
The same is largely true for the next two teams, the Remnants of Kriegfeld and the Barak Varr Goldlords. They could both win the conference if they win their game, plus the game between the top two ends in a draw or a win for the Wasters (and a relative improvement in their tie-breaker scores). A draw would put them both in a precarious position, where they could easily be leap-frogged by one of the teams below them, but it would likely benefit the Remnants slightly more due to their superior tie-breaker score. Like the Wasters, a loss means they are out of the running.
The final 5-point team is the Gotland Gorers. They have a poor tie-breaker score, meaning the conference championship is probably out of their reach. A win in their final games guarantees them a spot in the Cup, while a draw would only be enough if the Wasters lose, the Remnants and Goldlords don't draw, and the teams below them on 4 points do. A loss definitely wouldn't be good enough.
Their opponents are the Turov's Infected. Although they can't win the conference, they could still claw their way into a Cup place by winning their match and hoping other results go their way: they would want Drachenfels to win, either of the Remnants or Goldlords to win (not a draw), and a tie between the other two 4-point teams. A draw is not enough for them, but it would mean safety: a big loss could see them slip into the relegation playoffs, if the Elves of Albion win or draw their final game.
The other two 4-point teams are playing each other: Frostheim United against the Elves of Albion. They are both in a similar position to the Infected: a big win could mean an unlikely Cup place, and a big loss could mean the relegation playoffs. Frostheim have a decent tie-breaker score, so are in a slightly better spot, but they would both need to win, and hope for the following: Drachenfels to win, either the Remnants or the Goldlords to win, and the Gorers to tie or lose (it would have to be a loss in the Elves' case). For both of them, a draw keeps them safe, but a loss could see them slip into the relegation playoffs - this is far more of a risk for the Elves than United, whose tie-breaker score is probably enough to keep them safe.
Lahmia Undead United can't make it into the Cup, but they are facing the absentee Foul Peak Crawlers, and we are expecting it to end in a forfeit. If it does, they will be hoping that the Elves of Albion or the Infected lose their games, so that they can take their place in the Inter-Conference Shield instead of the relegation playoffs. If the Crawlers do resurface, a draw would be enough to avoid automatic relegation for United, while a loss of more than one TD would mean the two teams swap places.
Bretonnian Conference analysis following shortly... |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Aug 18, 2015 - 11:49 |
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Here we go: the final Conference analysis for Season X.
Bretonnia Conference
Favourites to win the conference for the second time in a row are Athel Loren BBoDT, who are the only team to already be guaranteed a place in the Challenge Cup. They just need a draw to win the Conference, and even a loss might be ok if the 2nd and 3rd placed teams draw.
Those two teams are the Serpents Coast Scavengers and the Scalded Delta Dogz, who can both win the Conference by winning this game and hoping BBoDT lose theirs. Even if it doesn't win them the Conference, a win does guarantee a spot in the Cup; a draw might be enough to hold on due to their better tie-breaker scores (especially the Scavengers), particularly if BBoDT win their game. Either team losing makes it likely they won't be in the Challenge Cup this season.
Facing BBoDT are Palinam Diadochi, the first of a bunch of teams on 4 points (none of whom can win the Conference). If they win, not only will they break the BBoDT's unbeaten league streak, they have a decent chance at a Cup spot if either the Scavengers or the Dogz win. An improvement in their tie-breaker score would help, though, particularly if the Icedragons don't return. A draw is very unlikely to be enough for them; and although it is equally unlikely, a big loss could technically still see them drop into the relegation playoffs (from 4th!).
Two of the other teams on 4 points are the Western Oblast Raiders Emsk and the Nidhoggstad Icedragons, who are scheduled against each other. The Icedragons have been missing for a while, though - if they don't return, the Raiders have a decent chance to sneak into the Cup. They'd need the BBoDT to win, as well as one of the Scavengers or the Delta Dogz, and the Swamp-Risers drawing or losing would help too. Meanwhile, a forfeit loss would leave the Icedragons vulnerable to the relegation playoffs, if both the Vagabonds and Magpies can manage at least a draw.
The Doom Glade Swamp-Risers are the final team on 4 points. They probably can't make it into the Challenge Cup (although a big win and lots of other results going their way could technically do it), but they will be more concerned with staying up. A draw is enough to confirm it, but a loss, combined with a Magpies win or draw, could mean the relegation playoffs for them.
Their opponents are the Wasteland Vagabonds, who officially can't make the Challenge Cup this season. They need to win to guarantee they won't be involved in the relegation picture. If they draw, and the Magpies win, they'll be in the relegation playoffs. If they lose, they could be in the relegation playoffs no matter what happens to the Magpies. Automatic relegation is unlikely, though.
The Marienburg Magpies have a decent chance of escaping from their current spot in the playoffs. A win would probably be enough, as long as everyone above them didn't draw. A draw would only be enough if the Vagabonds lose, or if the Icedragons don't reappear. A loss in their final game could mean automatic relegation, but it would have to be by a few touchdowns.
Their opponents, currently in last place, are the Arkhan Faraohs. They need to win their final game to escape automatic relegation, and they need to do it by scoring big. They can do it though: winning by 3 touchdowns, or by 2 and a heap of casualties, would be enough. |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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Aug 18, 2015 - 23:26 |
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nice one gjopie, that's what is so great about this league - everyone has something to play for right up to the very last match. |
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Meanandugl
Joined: Feb 05, 2013
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Aug 19, 2015 - 00:09 |
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| uzkulak wrote: | | nice one gjopie, that's what is so great about this league - everyone has something to play for right up to the very last match. |
Exactly. Add Gjopie's write-ups, statistics and efforts to keep the league going (incl. search for replacement) and some committed coaches (still sad that we seem to have lost Smeat) and you know why I still come back to face certain damn dorfs again and again  |
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Meanandugl
Joined: Feb 05, 2013
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Aug 19, 2015 - 22:30 |
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Athel Loren BBoDT vs Palinam Diadochi 4:0.
To a large extent the result can be attributed to very, very bad dice for the Diadochi. Almost everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Remarkable however is the way Cyrus-Havoc took it: in good style, without any whining. Pretty sure that I would have been in a sour mood if I had been in his shoes. So, Kudos to you, Cyrus-Havoc, and thanks for the game. |
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Wotfudboy
Joined: Feb 17, 2004
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Aug 19, 2015 - 23:12 |
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| Meanandugl wrote: | | uzkulak wrote: | | nice one gjopie, that's what is so great about this league - everyone has something to play for right up to the very last match. |
Exactly. Add Gjopie's write-ups, statistics and efforts to keep the league going (incl. search for replacement) and some committed coaches (still sad that we seem to have lost Smeat) and you know why I still come back to face certain damn dorfs again and again |
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gibby33
Joined: Jan 04, 2010
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Aug 20, 2015 - 00:09 |
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The Elves of Albion managed to squeeze out a win in a game that saw the ball kept in Chaos dwarfs hands for the majority of the game, but the last ditch defending prevented them from getting a equaliser & the game finished 1-0 \o/  |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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Aug 21, 2015 - 00:31 |
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Well, after being in 9th place after round 2, the Goldlords have fought their way into contention again, just hoping for a tie in Drachenfels-Wasters game for an unlikely - and entirely undeserved - conference steal. |
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The_Great_Gobbo
Joined: Aug 04, 2014
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Aug 21, 2015 - 00:48 |
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Dat fool easilyamused drew, endin der Yoof Sekshuns chances o promoshun. We woant ferget dis! |
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Meanandugl
Joined: Feb 05, 2013
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Aug 21, 2015 - 00:57 |
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| uzkulak wrote: | | Well, after being in 9th place after round 2, the Goldlords have fought their way into contention again, just hoping for a tie in Drachenfels-Wasters game for an unlikely - and entirely undeserved - conference steal. |
So they made it again. Well done, Uzkulak.
This season once more confirms rule 1 for those who want to bet on OWCC teams: As long as the Goldlords can make it to the Challenge Cup you better bet that they will make it. |
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Wotfudboy
Joined: Feb 17, 2004
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Aug 24, 2015 - 23:26 |
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Thanks to finster5 for a very friendly game, especially in the face of the complete dicing he got.
Durmix the Decayed II got killed... well, after 24 matches and ZERO SPP's, frankly, he needed to go!
Have we won Albion?... The Gotland Gorers need to make up +18 bonus points difference... Nuffle makes anything possible... |
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See my blog: https://wotfudboy.blogspot.com/.
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Aug 24, 2015 - 23:59 |
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| Wotfudboy wrote: | | Have we won Albion?... The Gotland Gorers need to make up +18 bonus points difference... Nuffle makes anything possible... |
I'm afraid we only need to make up 10 bonus point difference, as the CAS points should be halved. However, against other nurgle side, I doubt our tie-breaker will get better! |
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uzkulak
Joined: Mar 30, 2004
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Aug 25, 2015 - 21:51 |
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Then, with all due respect to the Gorers, gratz to the Wasters on their blood drenched march to victory! |
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gjopie
Joined: Oct 27, 2009
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Aug 27, 2015 - 10:48 |
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| uzkulak wrote: | | Then, with all due respect to the Gorers, gratz to the Wasters on their blood drenched march to victory! |
Indeed, congratulations to the Wasters.
With a lucky 2-0 win (helped along by a very useful wizard), the Gorers managed to sneak a spot in this season's Cup. Although we might not have been the best team overall this season, we had the best defence in the Albion Conference, conceding only 3 touchdowns in 5 matches. |
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