King_Ghidra
Joined: Sep 14, 2009
|
 Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 17:54 |
 
|
first we had coaches bending over backwards to tell us they played a range of teams in the box and not just the bashers
now we have coaches suggesting we simply remove the bashiest teams from the stats
what will be the next move designed to make the box story something other than it is?
add the above to the number of people saying "box is fine, we just need more players" and this thread is turning into a verbose version of "come in the van, we have candy" |
|
|
Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 17:54 |
|
| DukeTyrion wrote: | | koadah wrote: | | Loew wrote: | would it be easily possible to exclude the n most-played teams from these graphs?
I guess n=2 for nurgle would eliminate SlimeBarons and the Griefers, maybe that would be enough to make the nurgle part in the Box look less freakish |
Why would you do that? You still have to play those teams.
If we were talking about win/loss records it would be worth looking at. As we're talking about total games it probably isn't. Unless you are deciding who to ban.  |
I would certainly be interested in seeing the chart without the Barons & WMD's, especially as the Barons may well be taking a break in 87 games time. |
I just tried (again with Koadah's great scripts) to count only the first 200 games of all teams. Anything above that was cut off. I did it roughly now - so haven't uploaded the chart - but I'm sorry to disappoint you that it looked the same shape as before, except Nurgle was (to my surprise) even more prevalent at high TV than before (now it really looked freakish, but I'm not quite sure the reason for this). Also the Humans took a big plunge, as many of the die-hard human teams also were cut off.
But I'm not sure what you guys wanted to learn from this... If the same Nurgle or Chaos team activates 7 times, or if 7 different nurgle/chaos teams activate 1 team each, doesn't really matter for the opponent coaches, if you get what I mean. |
_________________
Join the SWL
Get your team bios here!
Putting the romantic in necromantic since 2010
Last edited by Balle2000 on %b %20, %2014 - %18:%Oct; edited 2 times in total |
|
xnoelx
Joined: Jun 05, 2012
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 17:59 |
|
| King_Ghidra wrote: | first we had coaches bending over backwards to tell us they played a range of teams in the box and not just the bashers
now we have coaches suggesting we simply remove the bashiest teams from the stats
what will be the next move designed to make the box story something other than it is?
add the above to the number of people saying "box is fine, we just need more players" and this thread is turning into a verbose version of "come in the van, we have candy" |
There's candy now? |
_________________
 Nerf Ball 2014 |
|
Tarabaralla
Joined: Jul 24, 2010
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 18:21 |
|
| Balle2000 wrote: | | DukeTyrion wrote: | | koadah wrote: | | Loew wrote: | would it be easily possible to exclude the n most-played teams from these graphs?
I guess n=2 for nurgle would eliminate SlimeBarons and the Griefers, maybe that would be enough to make the nurgle part in the Box look less freakish |
Why would you do that? You still have to play those teams.
If we were talking about win/loss records it would be worth looking at. As we're talking about total games it probably isn't. Unless you are deciding who to ban. |
I would certainly be interested in seeing the chart without the Barons & WMD's, especially as the Barons may well be taking a break in 87 games time. |
I just tried (again with Koadah's great scripts) to count only the first 200 games of all teams. Anything above that was cut off. I did it roughly now - so haven't uploaded the chart - but I'm sorry to disappoint you that it looked the same shape as before, except Nurgle was (to my surprise) even more prevalent at high TV than before (now it really looked freakish). Also the Humans took a big plunge, as many of the die-hard human teams also were cut off.
But I'm not sure what you guys wanted to learn from this... If the same Nurgle or Chaos team activates 7 times, or if 7 different nurgle/chaos teams activate 1 team each, doesn't really matter for the opponent coaches, if you get what I mean. |
+1 for Balle
Some teams play more than most coaches do in their whole career. So, it doesn't really matter if it's just one coach pestering the box or it's a big group of them, the outcome is the same: you get to play that boring race over and over... which gets even worse in case the playing coach is not a funny one and you meet him over and over again.. |
|
|
Loew
Joined: Feb 02, 2005
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 18:39 |
|
| King_Ghidra wrote: | first we had coaches bending over backwards to tell us they played a range of teams in the box and not just the bashers
now we have coaches suggesting we simply remove the bashiest teams from the stats
what will be the next move designed to make the box story something other than it is?
add the above to the number of people saying "box is fine, we just need more players" and this thread is turning into a verbose version of "come in the van, we have candy" |
Ahem.... I'm really not a pro BashBox person!
I'm just interested in patterns - It is known that there are a few teams in the box that get a lot of games, and we see thanks to to Balle2000's graphs that especially Nurgle teams have a huge increase in percentage of games played at higher TV. I'm just curious how big the influence of these flagship teams is.
----
personal tangent: I only play blackbox when I don't get other games, when I play blackbox I often only activate my lower TV team or the regenerate teams these days. For me, my biggest grief with the CPoMb teams is that the games can become one sided very early, a kickoff gone bad and you are left with an hour of watching your team getting pummeled without much chance to fight back. (and yes, constantly rebuilding Lizards is not that fun, too.). In theory I like the blackbox idea, in praxis BashBox (at high TV at least) is too one sided for my taste.
Oh, and another aspect why I wouldn't play blackbox exclusively even if it were more diverse: there are few (only very few, honestly) coaches I really don't like to play against due to...how to put it... conflicting humor / personality issues. |
|
|
DukeTyrion
Joined: Feb 18, 2004
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 19:02 |
|
| Balle2000 wrote: |
But I'm not sure what you guys wanted to learn from this... If the same Nurgle or Chaos team activates 7 times, or if 7 different nurgle/chaos teams activate 1 team each, doesn't really matter for the opponent coaches, if you get what I mean. |
Wasn't really trying to learn anything, just wanted to know how much if anything I personally skewed the stats.
Wasn't my intention to brow beat anyone with the results, just interested, but don't know how to analyse the data myself. |
|
|
Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 19:04 |
|
| Loew wrote: | | I'm just interested in patterns - It is known that there are a few teams in the box that get a lot of games, and we see thanks to to Balle2000's graphs that especially Nurgle teams have a huge increase in percentage of games played at higher TV. I'm just curious how big the influence of these flagship teams is. |
Well, there is a twofold answer to your question. Obviously any team playing several hundreds of games will have a consequently big impact on a division which is dwindling in numbers. The other bit I touched on above answering your question last page: they don't really skew the statistics much (as Bill put it some page back). Remember that these old teams also contribute a lot of games at lower TVs as well (Nurgle to the least extent).
As to why Nurgle, it is only a theory, but I think the combination of regenerate on 9 players, FA, the obvious strength advantage, makes Nurgle the best equipped to deal with the massive onslaught that comes from playing game after game vs. hight tv cpomb, thus keeping healthy at higher TVs for longer. Unfortunately they are not only the most durable, but also the most violent. |
_________________
Join the SWL
Get your team bios here!
Putting the romantic in necromantic since 2010
Last edited by Balle2000 on %b %20, %2014 - %19:%Oct; edited 2 times in total |
|
happygrue
Joined: Oct 15, 2010
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 19:15 |
|
| JimmyFantastic wrote: | | It's certainly not easy for Cpomb to maintain high TV either you know. |
Awww, poor clawpomb. They have to face too much clawpomb to maintain all their clawpombers. 
More seriously, great graphs Balle2000! They are quite interesting. I would guess that the ranked graph which looks like much better diversity is somewhat polluted by elf teams that only play other elf teams and chaos and nurgle that can't find many elf teams to play, so it is probably not quite as nice as it looks in terms of overall matchup diversity. Still, it is far and away better than the appalling box graph. 
Having played Slann at 2000 and over, they just do not last up there more than a game or two. The box problem is compounded by the fact that even if you try to play at high TV you get bashed back down so fast that all that are left up there are the killer teams which then perpetuates the problem... I doubt that any solution short of nerfing clawpomb (or some other major incentive not to play such teams) will ever produce box diversity at higher TV levels in the box.
Of all the ideas so far, I do like encouraging the killer teams to play more against each other via some scheduler mechanic. Let's take folks at their word when they say that people want to play clawpomb and let them play each other, the way Jimmy likes it. Aww yea. Bill all menz! |
_________________
Come join us in #metabox, the Discord channel for HLP, ARR, and E.L.F. in the box!
 |
|
garyt1
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 19:49 |
|
Old scheduler had a max of 15% TV difference in the matching,so this one wouldn't have been scheduled. If there were 2 matches scheduled previously there may have been none. |
_________________
“A wise man can learn more from a foolish question than a fool can learn from a wise answer.” |
|
JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 19:57 |
|
Using Balle2000's stats:
Ranked-Box % Differential
Chaos, Nurgle: -5
Chaos Dwarf: -4
Dwarf: -2
Human, Khemri, Necromantic: -1
Chaos Pact, Lizardmen, Undead, Ogre, Underworld: 0
Amazon, Elf, Halfling, Orc, Slann, Vampire: +1
Goblin, High Elf, Norse, Skaven: +2
Wood Elf +3
Dark Elf +4
Ranked Frequency Tiers
Dark Elf, Orc: 7%
Chaos, Human, Skaven, Wood Elf: 6%
Lizardmen, Norse, Necromantic, Undead: 5%
Chaos Dwarf, Chaos Pact, Dwarf, High Elf: 4%
Amazon, Elf, Goblin, Khemri, Nurgle, Slann, Vampire: 3%
Halfling, Ogre, Underworld: 2%
Chaotic 3 (Chaos, CD, Nurgle): 13%
Other Claw teams (CP, Necro, Norse, Skaven, Underworld): 22%
Elves and Skaven: 26%
Box Frequency Tiers
Chaos: 11 %
Chaos Dwarf, Nurgle: 8%
Human: 7%
Dwarf, Orc, Necromantic: 6%
Undead, Lizardmen: 5%
Skaven, Chaos Pact, Khemri 4%
Dark Elf, Norse, Wood Elf: 3 %
High Elf, Underworld, Ogre , Amazon, Vampire, Elf, Slann: 2%
Goblin, Halfling: 1%
Chaotic 3 (Chaos, CD, Nurgle): 27%
Other Claw teams (CP, Necro, Norse, Skaven, Underworld): 17%
Elves and Skaven: 14%
So there's double the Claw in Box, and double the AG4 in Ranked (maybe a little less than double on both counts). |
_________________
Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
|
Dunenzed
Joined: Oct 28, 2011
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 20:18 |
|
| happygrue wrote: | More seriously, great graphs Balle2000! They are quite interesting. I would guess that the ranked graph which looks like much better diversity is somewhat polluted by elf teams that only play other elf teams and chaos and nurgle that can't find many elf teams to play, so it is probably not quite as nice as it looks in terms of overall matchup diversity. Still, it is far and away better than the appalling box graph.
|
I also think it's interesting to note that over the last 12 months or so there's been roughly double the number of games in R than in B. This suggests the number of games by the box big three is approximately the same as the total number of games their races play in R. |
|
|
the_Sage
Joined: Jan 13, 2011
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 20:35 |
|
| Balle2000 wrote: |
|
I like how high elves pick up at just the TV where wood elves start to drop off. A bit odd too, from the 'high TV == claw point of view'. |
|
|
DukeTyrion
Joined: Feb 18, 2004
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 20:35 |
|
| Dunenzed wrote: |
I also think it's interesting to note that over the last 12 months or so there's been roughly double the number of games in R than in B. This suggests the number of games by the box big three is approximately the same as the total number of games their races play in R. |
by which logic, if the Elves are oversubscribed in [R], then since most games are played in [R], that would mean Elves are heavily subscribed on the site overall.
Good job we have [B] to balance the books in favour of Rock teams  |
|
|
JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 20:55 |
|
| DukeTyrion wrote: | by which logic, if the Elves are oversubscribed in [R], then since most games are played in [R], that would mean Elves are heavily subscribed on the site overall.
Good job we have [B] to balance the books in favour of Rock teams |
Elves in Ranked are barely over-represented if at all. Dark Elves and Wood Elves are in the top tier, High Elves around the middle, Pro Elves around the bottom, in terms of games played (and for most of us, it feels like less than that 'cause elves like to play with each other). Chaos isn't under-represented either: Chaos is in the top tier, CD and CP around the middle, Nurgle near the bottom. Undead and heavy bash put in a strong showing too. It's not like Ranked doesn't get bashy.
If you figure the Stunty teams are 10% of all games played, the other 20 teams account for 90% of all games, or an average of about 4.5% each. Perfectly average representation for the Box big 3 would be 13.5%, much as it is in Ranked (13%, not considering fractions). For the 4 elves plus Skaven, that would be 22.5%. |
_________________
Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor.
Last edited by JackassRampant on %b %20, %2014 - %20:%Oct; edited 1 time in total |
|
mrt1212
Joined: Feb 26, 2013
|
| Posted:
Oct 20, 2014 - 20:56 |
|
| the_Sage wrote: |
I like how high elves pick up at just the TV where wood elves start to drop off. A bit odd too, from the 'high TV == claw point of view'. |
You're rarely facing 4+ claw and giving up 4+ blocks per turn if you can help it. With AV8 failed dodges and gfis arent as likely to be an armor break and for that matter, you stand up to other non clawpomb teams as well as anyone else in the game with AV8 across the board. Also, unlike WE's the ST3 catchers are actually able to hold their own. |
|
|
|
|
| |
FUMBBL HAIKU'S
Search
