mrt1212
Joined: Feb 26, 2013
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 Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 03:01 |
 
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mardaed
Joined: Jun 15, 2012
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Apr 30, 2015 - 05:13 |
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Sorry, but I have to say it. Don't play this strategy. You should only foul Piling On players and if you have 2 or 3 assists. Fouling a PO player sets a tone that could make the opposing coach wary of Piling On. This is good. It makes them think. Once people start watching your replays, they'll keep their PO player close to the cage. This is also good. Just back your guys back to the endzone and wait the offense out.
Remember, bash teams WANT to eliminate elf players. Fouling all the time just gives them an extra 1/6 or 11/36 chance of getting rid of your players. You're playing into your opponents' hands.
The name of the game is MINIMIZING BLOCKS. Their first turn they get 3 + a blitz. Well if you're backed up to the endzone, they won't get any blitzes after that. If your guys have been knocked down, keep them down. Now you have a 1/6 / 11/36 chance of having one of their players removed from the pitch if you're fouled.
Just wait, wait, wait... until they get close to the endzone (3-4 turns)... then you strike.
Anyway, if you haven't already, read Garion's Wood Elf playbook. It applies to all elves.
http://www.plasmoids.dk/bbowl/playbooks/Woodelf2.pdf
P.S. If you feel like your coaching skills are superior (or if they don't have a lot of mighty blow), you can play an aggressive typical 2 by 2 defense (read Garion's playbook) near the offensive line. Otherwise, just play back, just outside of their blitz range.
Good luck! |
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mardaed
Joined: Jun 15, 2012
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Apr 30, 2015 - 05:57 |
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Just want to add something.
Based on a 2-1 grind, your opponent should at minimum get 3 LOS blocks plus 8 blitzes for the first half. If you play the 2nd half carefully so that you don't mark anyone, then your opponent will get an additional 8 blitzes.
This is a total of 19 blocks.
Let's look at armor break. At 7AV you're looking at 24.6% for a POMBer to KO your player, and 20.8% chance for the POMBer to CAS your player.
That means for every knockdown there is a 45.4% chance that a POMBer will remove the player from the pitch! (This is why it's imperative you foul these guys!!!!)
Let's just look at Mighty Blow stats, though. KO = 16.9%, CAS = 14.4%
This is a more manageable 31.3%
Source: http://bbtactics.com/armor-break-and-injury-tables/
So let's say you're up against a Block Tackle player and your linemen don't have Block. With 2 block dice, there's a 75% chance of knockdown.
Source: http://bbtactics.com/blocking-statistics-odds-tables/
.75 * .313 Mighty Blow = 23.5% chance of knockdown and removal.
.75 * .454 TPOMBer = 34.05% chance of knockdown and removal.
So in an ideal game where you only let the bash team get 19 blocks, then that means 4.46 elves (19*.235) will be removed from the pitch! If you're up against a TPOMBer, 6.46 elves (19*.3405)!!!!
Or in other words, you can expect an elf to be removed from the pitch between every 3 to 4 blocks! Solution? Don't bang with bashers unless there is a high reward / low risk scenario. |
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pubstar
Joined: Jun 13, 2009
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Apr 30, 2015 - 13:49 |
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| mardaed wrote: | | Sorry, but I have to say it. Don't play this strategy. |
I appreciate the time you spent on your posts, but you're completely missing the point. I did not ask how to play elfs to maximum efficiency, I asked for advice on building a roster that can foul 6 times a game and still have a chance to win.
The strategy itself is, of course, sub-optimal, but it's not wildly insane. Some slightly lazy math:
If I assume I need to roll a 7 to break armor without using the DP bonus, then I need a 7 again to remove the player. This means I have a ~34% chance to remove a player with 2/3 assists and a DP fouler. Assuming armor breaks on every foul, there's a ~31% chance of being tossed out.*
So the tactic is that I am betting my 80k player against your 120k+ player, with slightly favorable odds.
Again, I know it's sub-optimal. Gathering 2 or 3 assists messes with my positioning, and elfs don't strictly need to remove players to win. But, it is what I want to do, for a variety of reasons. I appreciate everybody else's advice on team construction and race choice.
*This seems perhaps conservative to me, since there are results where I use DP on armor and still remove the player, and there are results where I don't break armor, thus reducing the chance of getting tossed. However, it also doesn't account for thick skull, and we are counting a KO as a removal, even though it may come back and my tossed foulers never are. As I said, the math is lazy, but we're just trying to get a ballpark figure. If somebody has done better fouling odds, please let me know so I can take a look. |
_________________
DOTP!
3DB Highlander!
Fill the Box Grid! |
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PaddyMick
Joined: Jan 03, 2012
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Apr 30, 2015 - 14:35 |
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I think Dark Elves would be best at this. Sure you pay 10k more for a lino compared to Pro Elves but you have AV8 which helps loads with attrition. Which is what fouling is all about, right? Plus more basic skills out of the box. More blodge early on despite using some skill ups for DP. |
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mardaed
Joined: Jun 15, 2012
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Apr 30, 2015 - 17:22 |
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| pubstar wrote: |
The strategy itself is, of course, sub-optimal, but it's not wildly insane. Some slightly lazy math:
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The fouling statistics can be gathered from the chart I included in the last post.
http://bbtactics.com/armor-break-and-injury-tables/
Just find your victim's AV, and subtract 1 AV for every assist you're getting. Then look under the first or second colored columns.
For example, let's say you're fouling an AV7 player with 2 assists.
Go to the first column (white) and go to the AV5 row. You will see: KO 18.1%, CAS 12.0%
So... to remove a 120k player from the pitch, you have a 30.1% chance. However, if your armor break is successful, there is 31% chance of being called off.
Those chances of success go up if you have Dirty Player, though. That's the 2nd blue column.
KO = 24.8%, CAS = 21.9%. Total = 46.7%. Now we're talking! So ~1/3 chance for almost a 1/2 chance of removal.
Hope the chart is helpful.
However, if you want to remove players, why not just get frenzy and chain-surf the heck out of people? 
http://bbtactics.com/blood-bowl-challenge-009/
This one is probably my favorite. So awesome and ballsy if you could pull it off in a tournament game.
If you want more chain-surfing practice, look at this play:
http://bbtactics.com/blood-bowl-challenge-006/
Surf 2 elves in 1 turn to win. |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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Apr 30, 2015 - 20:09 |
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Most coaches' idea of a "fouly elf roster" is maybe 12-13 players and 2 DP's. One goes in each half, and you see how things go early - if you are not losing too many players, then start fouling T4 or so (or whenever you think you can afford to lose him banned).
2nd half, same yardstick, but start fouling right out of the gate.
Foul with discretion, aim for high-value targets - a practice of risking your DP for a generic Lino is rarely worth that risk in the long run. |
_________________
Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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