licker
Joined: Jul 10, 2009
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 Posted:
Apr 28, 2015 - 18:46 |
 
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| JanMattys wrote: | | licker wrote: | | Not to rain on your parade, but assuming that the coaching levels are roughly the same (which means the team compositions are also going to be 'strong' or 'normal') then you're left with 3 and 5 mattering almost exclusively. |
That's the broadest generalization I ever read. And as such it holds no real value. I have won my fair share of games against CR <175 coaches, and not thanks to dice alone.
I have also lost to CR >140 coaches, and not just because they rolled 6 sixes in a row. |
Which means exactly nothing. As others have pointed out CR is not the same as CS.
However, the broader point is that yes, sometimes someone will make a mistake, but just how often is that 'mistake' a pure boner vs. being forced into an ever worsening position because your dice are not rolling as well as the opponent?
With very good coaches this doesn't even require weird armor breaks or terrific CAS dice, it can be as much as simply failing to roll knock downs over the course of a couple turns which turns the blocking battle against you, as you were left with pushes and both downs, meanwhile the opponent rolls a 'fair' share of POWs/DS and even while your armor isn't breaking you're left standing up instead of being able to reposition or push your blocking advantage.
It's all team and matchup dependent though, which is why I said that #3 feeds directly into #5 as to the extent which 'uneven' dice will upset the balance in favor of one side over the other.
You can play 'perfectly' and get a normal distribution of dice, but if you opponent also plays 'perfectly' and has his normal distribution than the winner is probably the player who got his 'good' roll at the key time, or had his opponent get his bad roll as the key time. This kind of luck isn't as obvious as just snaking your dodges every turn, or rolling skulls a lot. But it's the effect that I see turning what are otherwise 'even' games in terms of coach play and general dice.
Did you roll double skulls and wind up using your RR, then failed a gfi because the rr was gone? Was that a mistake? Of course it can be if the block was unnecessary to scoring, so on turn 8 (or any turn where you just need to score) it was a mistake. If it happens on turn 4 in the middle of jockying for position, and you double skull into push/push, and thus wind up needing a gfi to close your cage which you then fail was that bad luck? Bad play?
That's not a 'OMG CPOMB ALL MENZ!!!' kind of game. That's a routine kind of play we see all the time from good coaches. My point though is that some teams can recover better from that depending on the matchup. So the dwarves failed their gfi and left a corner off the cage, but the zons are all marked, or will have to make a dodge through tackle to take advantage. As opposed to some elfs who might have more speed, and who do have better AG to make the dodge(s) easier. Or even compared to vs. Orcs who then proceed to block open a path, or whatever.
Some cases the matchup covers up poor dice, the flip side is that it can also exacerbate it in the other direction, and thus 'coach skill' becomes less important than does match up and dice.
I'm not sure what any of that has to do with wizards directly, but the use of the wizard is reliant on both coach skill (timing) and dice (oops, you rolled a one on your lightning bolt, oh well). So it's not totally irrelevant. You would want to maximize the effect of the wizard, while controlling (as much as it's possible to) for the effect that a failed wizard has. Hard to do for a lightning bolt, a bit different calculus for a FB depending on how many players you can hit, and what % of them would need to go down to allow you to follow up successfully. |
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JimmyFantastic
Joined: Feb 06, 2007
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Apr 28, 2015 - 22:35 |
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The ever worsening position is usually the result of bad decisions rather than bad dice.
Teams are a massive factor and coach ability/play matters far far more than luck.
If you get two great coaches who play a game with only relatively minor mistakes (no-one has ever played a perfect game) and well matched teams then luck is going to be more of a factor of course. |
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Pull down the veil - actively bad for the hobby! |
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cdassak
Joined: Oct 23, 2013
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Apr 28, 2015 - 22:39 |
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hmmmm I thought this topic was about the Wizard gambit |
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JimmyFantastic
Joined: Feb 06, 2007
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Apr 28, 2015 - 22:47 |
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Well that's pretty boring isn't it. |
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Pull down the veil - actively bad for the hobby! |
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cdassak
Joined: Oct 23, 2013
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Apr 28, 2015 - 23:08 |
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Lets talk chicks then  |
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C3I2
Joined: Feb 08, 2005
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Apr 28, 2015 - 23:11 |
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Actually, since a gambit is a sacrifice (of a piece) a wizards gambit means you sacrifice the wizard so either you forgo the wiz and buy something else (apo+babe; is something I buy frequently) or a wizard gambit is that you intentionally give your opponent 150+ K gold to play with, sacrificing a wizard to him. |
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licker
Joined: Jul 10, 2009
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Apr 28, 2015 - 23:18 |
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| JimmyFantastic wrote: | The ever worsening position is usually the result of bad decisions rather than bad dice.
Teams are a massive factor and coach ability/play matters far far more than luck.
If you get two great coaches who play a game with only relatively minor mistakes (no-one has ever played a perfect game) and well matched teams then luck is going to be more of a factor of course. |
So what was the bad play when you made your 2d blocks and didn't get a single knock down?
It's a mix of both in my opinion, but when both coaches are playing 'well' then it shifts to being about who gets the worse (or better) dice when. I'm sure you've experienced this in bash vs. AG matchups where the bash simply cannot remove any of the other team from the pitch, and eventually your position is compromised because they simply have too many bodies left for you to make a safe scoring attempt.
Now you can blame that on bad coaching or positional mistakes, and certainly that could be a part of it, yet it's also true that the bash game plan is typically to cause at least some attrition to the other side to make their drives easier. So was it a failure of tactics or a failure of dice?
But really my point is not that coaching or matchup doesn't matter. It's that coaching and matchup matter in how skewed the dice have to become to affect the outcome.
I had a recent game where coaching was probably a push, but matchup was heavily in my favor. Yet I lost 1-0. There was one mistake towards the end I made which likely would have resulted in a 1-1 tie, but my failure to score on my 1st drive was due to the following sequence of rolls on my last 4 turns of the half.
1,1 on a dodge to make a screen after positioning the ball in scoring range. Opponent then got a 2d POW with a stun and the ball bounced directly to his blitzer (else i had AG6 in range to recover the position).
1,1 on another dodge to blitz the ball free with my strip ball player (the ball was in the Counts hands, so ST5...) Opponent manages to reposition a bit.
I am able to set up a 2 assist block for a 1d on the ball, again with strip, and the dice come skull/Both down (sure, i don't have wrestle on that player, but that's not a team build failure, the player in question is a legend who took strip as his last skill and was never going to be a sacker anyway) Opponent manages to screen up pretty well.
I am able to set up a -2d on the ball, with reroll. Sure, longer odds, considering no wrestle, but still not hopeless. Dice come skull/push rerolled to push/BD.
On the last turn of the half I even sent a blitz to knock down his only scoring threat who lacked block. Of course I rolled a skull, and then he made his pass/catch/gfi to score.
*shrug*
That doesn't really prove anything, but it highlights just how 'bad' dice stack up to create an impossible situation. I could have played differently at different points, but once the position was reached on turn 4 where I decided my best option was to get the ball in scoring range because I was starting to loose the line of scrimmage area, my die was cast. And what did it take for me to lose all hope and even wind up conceding a TD back? Back to back sets of snakes on dodges (with dodge, and no tackle even), followed by a 1/9 on my block and then the 5/9 chance which also fails.
Follow that up to the 2nd half where I finally do manage to steal the ball, but make a gratuitous block that results in push/push, leaving him a st4 zombie who needs a dodge and gfi to get a 2d on a blodger.
Of course he makes all the rolls. Still, I have my AG6 with sure hands who can reach the ball and pass it to an elf in the endzone (no rrs at this point), and what happens? Snakes his dodge.
Oh well, that was bad dice to be sure, compounded by my unneeded 2d on that zombie when I could have dodged out to rescreen him. I figured knocking him down (which was 75%) would make it impossible for him to stop the score, and even just a push would leave the situation as it was. Dodging out on a 1/36 to block him off was the 'safer' play.
Again, that's anecdotal evidence, but it does support the contention that when you have 2 coaches who are both playing 'well' or at least making the same number of misplays, then it's the dice on the key moments which will decide things. That's not really news to anyone though, but it seems to get left aside far too often when people start talking about whatever tactic or strategy they want to talk about.
Thing is you need to play well enough to leave yourself in the right position to take advantage of your good dice or your opponents bad dice, that's where the 'coach edge' comes in. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Apr 28, 2015 - 23:34 |
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I have always felt, and commented way back in the day, that Blood Bowl matches always come down to 5 key roll of the dice, 5 "plays" or "moments" in the match that determines the winner.
Coach skill allows you to be in position to make one of those key plays, Team make up allows you to have the right skill set/ +STAT to make the play a good % play.
That is when NUFFLE shows up. Can you make the rolls?
It is very possible that the key 5 plays could happen in the first 2 or 3 turns of a match. Which is usually what happens when a good coach plays a rookie coach. The rookie coach blows it big time early in the match and just gets rolled because of lack of skill. |
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cdassak
Joined: Oct 23, 2013
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Apr 29, 2015 - 00:10 |
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| C3I2 wrote: | | Actually, since a gambit is a sacrifice (of a piece) a wizards gambit means you sacrifice the wizard so either you forgo the wiz and buy something else (apo+babe; is something I buy frequently) or a wizard gambit is that you intentionally give your opponent 150+ K gold to play with, sacrificing a wizard to him. |
Actually a gambit is:
An act or remark that is calculated to gain an advantage, especially at the outset of a situation (oxford dictionary)
In chess it is a sacrifice of material indeed. |
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C3I2
Joined: Feb 08, 2005
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Apr 29, 2015 - 00:25 |
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cdassak
Joined: Oct 23, 2013
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Apr 29, 2015 - 00:27 |
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Cunning  |
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Leilond
Joined: Jan 02, 2012
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Apr 29, 2015 - 10:25 |
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The bigger issue, IMHO, is that this game wasn't created to be THIS competetive (THIS mean like here on FUMBBL)
When a team roll something like 100 dices in a single match (more or less), the random factor is HUGE. And in EVERY match played NOT BAD (with not great mistakes), there are always a couple of "key rolls" for each team, and the result of these key rolls make the winner. When both the coaches fail or succeds in these key rolls, the match is made in som turns. If you start the match with 1 cas, 1 ko and 2 stunned players on the LOS + Blitz, it's not your skill that made you dominate the drive. If you roll 3 push/push on the los against woodies, you know immediately that this drive is going to be a nightmare, unless you start rolling some cas in the 1 blitz for turn you're going to have from there on.
I'm talking about a match where both coaches play a decent game, with no "farm spp" reroll wasting plays and the like. In these matches, the game is always decided by dices
And to add randomness to randomness, there is the KO recovery rolls and the Kick-Off table. Things like "throw rock" or "pitch invasion" or "Exaustion" or "Pouring rain", can change the match, without talking about PD and Blitz
This is more a dice game than a skill game. Unless one coach is MUCH MORE experienced than another. If I play 10 matches with a guy that learned this match yesterday, I'm probably going to win 6-7 of these matches. But if I play against a coach with my same experience, the dices will say who will win.
And finally there is FLUFF. I play a dark elf team with 2 runners in the box. I know that this is going to make me lose some matches because of the TV bloat (I like seeing dump off), but again, this game isn't intended to be played like we play in the box. The rules are created for scheduled leagues, where your opponent won't be different if you change your TV. In the game as it's intended, if you wast 40 TV because you like a lot to give NervesOfSteel and Extra arms to your Maraurder "catcher", you're going to give or lose 50k inducement and you're not going to face 2 more MB on opponent team. Again, it's not "skill". |
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bghandras
Joined: Feb 06, 2011
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Apr 29, 2015 - 10:34 |
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Ok, let me clarify how I meant the Wizard gambit. There are exceptions, but in most cases (my guess would be at least 80%) wizard is by far the best inducement, and is actually at high TV better than anything you could get on your roster.
Upon these assumptions you can decide what TV your team will represent. This decision is a gambit, see the following cases in comparison to the potential wizard. (For the sake of simplicity lets assume no petty cash on either side.)
Case No1: Down by 150k. Perfect, you get the wizard, and no waste
Case No2: Down by 140k. Very bas scenario.
Case No3: Down by a lot (like 500k) Your team is probably undermanned for the task wizard nonetheless.
(and there are the mirror image scenarios.)
Case No4: Up by 150k. Not good, opponent get the wizard.
Case No5: Up by 140k. You are in very good shape.
Case No6: Up by a lot (like 500k) Your team is superior.
So when you shoot for your optimal tournament team, you should have a TV in mind, which maximize your chance to get the better part of the wizard gambit. But it is extremely difficult to manage, as you don't know the opponents exact TV, and the function of the wizard gambit is not "nice" (continuous, monoton). |
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C3I2
Joined: Feb 08, 2005
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Apr 29, 2015 - 12:08 |
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Gee one more reason to manage the money... |
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C3I2
Joined: Feb 08, 2005
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Apr 29, 2015 - 12:09 |
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Note also, any game where you roll a LOT of dice, is per definition less random then one were you roll few dice, but more then any where you do not roll dice (or flip coins etc). Its the law of large numbers... |
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