licker
Joined: Jul 10, 2009
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 Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 19:51 |
 
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| MattDakka wrote: | | C3I2 wrote: | | Note also, any game where you roll a LOT of dice, is per definition less random then one were you roll few dice, but more then any where you do not roll dice (or flip coins etc). Its the law of large numbers... |
One little remark: even if you roll a lot of dice, some dice rolls are more important than others.
Not all d6 you roll affect a match in the same way.
Let's assume coach A snakes while trying to GFI to score (game changing bad luck), while coach B (who is winning 1-0) rolls 1,1 when passing the ball trying to farm 1 SPP for a completion (i.e. irrelevant bad luck) on turn 16th.
Even rolling a large amount of dice can't make you safe from the gamebreaking dice at the wrong moment.
It's not just a problem of dice distribution, but of bad dice during a critical turn or action.
Not all dice rolls have the same value in a match. |
Exactly, and this is where 'better' coaches try to make the small differences add up.
We all understand that it's important to not 'waste' actions, so you always take your safest actions 1st (with the usual exceptions), moves require no dice, they don't even factor in. 3dbs, 2dbs with block, 2dbs, dodges/gfis to make 1dbs into 2 dbs...
Sometimes it's not worth the extra dice, sometimes it's necessary to roll the extra dice. Better positioning either reduces the dice you have to roll and/or increases the dice your opponent has to roll, but ultimately, it's down to what the rolls actually are, and when you manage to POW the blodger (or fail to on 6 dice...) or when you snake the simple dodge to close your cage.
Clearly snaking something on turn 8/16 which costs you a TD is key. But even the simply accumulation of 'mediocre' dice can add up of the course of an otherwise well played game to where you wind up in those same positions that now you need 'good' (and sometimes exceptional) dice to recover. Better coaches mitigate this, but that was my earlier point, sometimes you can do everything right, take all the right rolls, and all the right risks, and not even fail anything, but just fail to accomplish anything along the way. Then the opponent rolls one good set of block dice and sometimes just getting a stun is more than enough to flip the game on its head. |
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bghandras
Joined: Feb 06, 2011
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Apr 29, 2015 - 19:57 |
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I agree that not all dice rolls are same. But you have a huge effect how many dice rolls fall into that "very important" category.
Team composition, good tactic, good execution all can limit the number of critical dice rolls. So if both you and your opponent made the same amount, then you were at similar level during that match (with that particular team, your strategy, etc), and yes, in those cases luck decides the outcome.
But if you have 10 critical rolls, while the opponent has 3, then you need much more luck than above. |
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C3I2
Joined: Feb 08, 2005
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Apr 29, 2015 - 20:00 |
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Clearly this game needs an over-run mechanic, where st7 vs. st1 means autowin, and auto break armour wo rolling dice!
Also for you Roleplayers there, if every action you need to take in life is a D100 roll with fumbles on 1s or 1-2s; you just wont live long. At least not with rolemaster crticials. |
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mrt1212
Joined: Feb 26, 2013
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Apr 29, 2015 - 20:04 |
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But I like when the Snotling shows the Fanatic who is boss. |
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licker
Joined: Jul 10, 2009
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| Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 20:06 |
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Right, and limiting those rolls is coaching ability and match up dependent. So the only thing that changes is how much the dice have to skew for the better coach/team to wind up disadvantaged.
My DE play really well when they get 'average' dice because I understand this and don't try and do silly elf things just because they are built to do silly elf things. Yes, sometimes I have to do those things, but most of the time (again, with 'average' dice) I can work a better situation where now the opponent is the one who has to leave their comfort zone and winds up with multiple 3+ rolls to pass/catch/dodge.
If they make them they make them, if they don't I haven't even had to roll anything crazy (because I have AG6/sure hands who makes crazy rolls average rolls...). Of course sometimes your average dice get trumped by an opponents brilliant dice, or you just have crap dice and it doesn't matter what you do because everything is failing anyway.
There's still strategy and tactics though, you may have a terrible 1st half and be down 1-0 and even not be receiving, but if your CAS rate wasn't terrible you should still have a shot for the tie, or sometimes even a win. Still in situations like that, especially if you need to win rather than just tie, you now need that little bit of extra help only nuffle can provide  |
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Smeat
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
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| Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 20:29 |
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| JimmyFantastic wrote: | | Grod wrote: | | Is wizard better than 3 dirty tricks? After all, lightning bolts fizzle on a 1... |
Yes. |
No, not always.
The obvious problem with Cards is that they ~can be~ situational, some not so much, but some extremely so - if you have "Illegal Substitution" but take early Casualties and have no one left on your bench (or just start w/ 11 players), it's 100% useless, complete waste. Same w/ many of the others - if the right situation never arises, the card never gets played, the Inducements were "wasted" (altho' they may make some coaches nervous).
So the first thing is to look at the Deck ( https://fumbbl.com/help:Card+list ) and think about how useful each card probably is. (If you don't want to be throwing bombs at -AG and then lose a player to Secret Weapon, Exploding Runes is no good to you, and so on.) If there are a lot of cards that you can't make use of - then maybe stick to the Wiz. But if the odds are heavily in your favor, quite possibly 3 DT > Wiz.
Meanwhile, a Wizard, altho' only good 83% of the time, can always be used. And if used on Defense, a Wiz can be worth 2 scores - stopping the opposition from getting one, and giving that one to you instead. (So, for instance, the half-time score is 2-0 instead of 1-1 - you're leading by 2 instead of tied, +2 scores diff.)
But anything less and a Wiz is only worth 1 score (either stopping theirs or allowing yours), and it would not be hard to get that out of 3 Dirty Tricks cards - or ~83% of the time, at least.
So the reason that 3 cards ~might~ be better is that the full usefulness of a Wiz is situational too.
To get the most out of a Wiz, you want...o To use it on Defense,
...and...
o To have the players (and time) to capitalize on the loose ball, to both scoop and score.
And that last means not only the manpower, but the position. You can use a Wizard to blast any ballcarrier into next week, but unless you have someone nearby who can recover the ball, AND others to screen him (or to receive a pass or whatever), it's pretty much wasted. The opposition picks up the ball with another player while you wish you were closer to the ball, and they score anyway - seen it lots, ver' sad.
To make the most out of that starting 83%, you want...o A reliable ballhandler - Ag 4(+), Sure Hands, Dodge (or Leap), etc - someone who can get TO the loose ball and RECOVER it, and then get the ball to safety (either by moving or passing/etc.)
o Not be completely out of position with both Ballhandler AND support - if 10 of your players are on the other side of the field, you then have a lone ballcarrier facing the wrath of the opposition with no support - and that's generally not going to last long, nor change much in the long run.
o Time to score - so you can't (usually) use the Wiz T8 and still get that +2 score differential. So, if your opponent is stalling with ease, if they own the position, if you've already lost half your team, if you can't get TO a loose ball, if you can get to it but then don't have the manpower to protect your ballcarrier - all you're doing with the Wiz is slowing them down a Turn, maybe more, but maybe not even that much. And you should be able to achieve at least that much w/ 3 DT Cards - and most cards don't have a 2+ activation roll.
So, if you don't think you can achieve that simple checklist - Ballhandler nearby, Defensive Position, and (hopefully) Time - then 3 Dirty Tricks Cards ~may~ be the better bet. Pit Trap, Chop Block, Custard Pie, Blatant Foul (minimum guaranteed "Stun") - all money in the right situation, and some single cards ~can~ be as good as a Wiz if the position lines up just right. Use them to either 1) Score, 2) Stop a Score, or 3) (best) - steal the ball and (hopefully) score yourself.
And GL!
(sorry, didn't mean to derail the OT discussion...) |
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Let's go A.P.E.!
(...and what exactly do you think they do with all those dead players?...) |
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the_Sage
Joined: Jan 13, 2011
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| Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 20:41 |
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| mrt1212 wrote: | | But I like when the Snotling shows the Fanatic who is boss. |
Ooh, chop block is just the thing for that! =D
| Harad wrote: | Yes but that is still part of your team composition, just because you made those choices when initiating the team rather than through their development does not make it any less a part of the team's composition.
I understand why other people will choose to view them differently but, to me, it's the same. |
Yes, I can see that. Like this game. He plays orcs, and everyone except the troll has tackle. This seems like a good thing against my high elves, except my high elves only have 3 dodge. (both teams are pretty weird) |
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Kam
Joined: Nov 06, 2012
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| Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 22:35 |
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| MattDakka wrote: | (...)
One little remark: even if you roll a lot of dice, some dice rolls are more important than others.
Not all d6 you roll affect a match in the same way.
(...) |
Aye. And both coaches don't roll the same number of dice. In a game where most failed rolls end your turn, it's kinda huge. One of the less talked about strategy consists precisely in trying to make your opponent roll as many dice as possible, while playing as safely as you can. That alone won't make you win games, but it sure helps.
More on that in the next issue of the GLN (yes, that's shameless teaser  ). |
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GLN 17 is out!
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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| Posted:
Apr 29, 2015 - 22:50 |
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seanh1986
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
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Apr 29, 2015 - 23:01 |
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Coach skill is generally a dominant factor between extreme cases, but when it's similar... I would say team make-up and luck factor can be the most significant. The better coaches put themselves in positions more often to have an unlucky roll (or a couple) not automatically lose them the game... Whereas a less skilled coach may succeed on a 2+ roll, but a 1 may pretty much guarantee their loss... Whereas a more skilled coach might have a reliable back-up plan before rolling any dice.
With regards to wizards, I find them to be a huge risk but often they are worth a 1 TD swing... I generally will not use mine unless it can almost guarantee stopping a TD or giving me a TD that I cannot get any other way... To me, using it in any other situation almost defeats the purpose... I tend to use the lightning bolt, which succeeds ~5/6 times.
That being said, I've had someone fireball my cage before, and with his great wizard dice rolling, it decimated me and allowed him to walk in and get an easy TD on defence.
The biggest thing is to use the wizard appropriately, and generally, not too early... Often the threat of the wizard affects how people play... If I know you have a wizard, I may score T6 instead of T8 and/or I will make sure to have multiple players near the ball carrier / end zone so that if you do zap him, someone else can scoop it up and score, etc. |
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