Shepherd
Joined: Oct 28, 2004
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 Posted:
Dec 02, 2004 - 17:54 |
 
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I share HollowOne's power and can confidently accurately predict failed Really Stupid, Bone Head and Wild Animal Blitz/Block rolls approximately 16.7% of the time.
You should see me at the track! |
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A super-hero that always fails his Bonehead roll: MAN-MAN, the averagest hero alive!
Buy Dead Eyes Open, starting July 2005 from Slave Labor Graphics! |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Dec 02, 2004 - 18:06 |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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Dec 02, 2004 - 20:22 |
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horrible, no wait? Horrific? Or was it terrific? You guys speak better english than me... |
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My post count
Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so. |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Dec 03, 2004 - 12:00 |
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Noooooooo, BMM, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who's gonna answer to those Mikes out there, now????
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annachie
Joined: Jul 27, 2004
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| Posted:
Dec 03, 2004 - 12:17 |
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| Shepherd wrote: | I share HollowOne's power and can confidently accurately predict failed Really Stupid, Bone Head and Wild Animal Blitz/Block rolls approximately 16.7% of the time.
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After 4 games, my Ogre team is running somewhere around 18.5% fail rate on Bone Head. |
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ddyjak
Joined: Jan 27, 2004
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Dec 11, 2004 - 23:22 |
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@Shivan
Since he got it the first time getting it the second is 1/11th
That a player gets MVP twice in a row is 1/11th (given is that a player gets it first time 100% chance. That player then need to get it the second time making it 1/11th)
That a specific player choosen before the roll then it is 1/121 (since it have to be that one both the first and the second time)
Chance of getting 2 MVPs in 3 matches on any player is:
Given is that a player will get it the first time. 100%
Second time you fulfill the goal if that one player gets it aka 1 in 11
Alternatively someone else get it 10 in 11.
Third time you need to MISS those two.....and since they are alike it will be 9 in 11 for you missing and 2 in 11 for you getting it.
So it will be 1/11th + 10/11*2/11 = 31/121 ~ 1/4 or 25%
Forgot......also the requirement that another player gets it the last time is needed.....so 1/11*10/11......since on the last he will get it all 3 times.
Anyway doesnt do much difference besides that it is 30/121 for 2 and 1/121 for 3. |
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Glomp
Joined: Jan 04, 2004
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Dec 11, 2004 - 23:30 |
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/me stabs a steak through the thread zombie's rotten heart
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Forum terrorist. |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Dec 12, 2004 - 00:04 |
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lol @ inquisitorpustus
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Mith
Joined: Jan 17, 2005
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Feb 05, 2005 - 09:46 |
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| Shivan wrote: | the chance of a player getting a MVP on a 11 player is not 1/11 the second time.
Its like if you roll an 11 sided die, the chance of rolling 11 two times in a row is (1/11)*(1/11) |
Ok heres where you are wrong
The chance to roll any Single number after first rolling on a d11 a 7
Is always going to be 1 in 11
Its the truth ask any professor who deals with statistics.
Likely hoods and mathamatical facts are not the same thing |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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Feb 05, 2005 - 10:02 |
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Mith is correct. If you know that you rolled 7 then the chances to roll it again is 1/11 (from independance of rolls).
if you don't know the result, chances to roll twice a 7: 1/11 * 1/11 |
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Laviak
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
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Feb 05, 2005 - 10:07 |
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except, if you roll the die ... and it lands in a puddle of sticky red cordial, there is an increased probability of getting the same number again, as the sticky side is more likely to attach itself to the table (or whatever you are rollong the dice on). |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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Feb 05, 2005 - 10:12 |
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mmmmm right. Good that it is dice generator then
ohhhh I forgot it's broken. It's( the rule) something alike:
For 90% of whiners, the MVP will go to THE guy they don't want it to go (the dead, the niggler...etc...) |
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moltenllama
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
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Mar 17, 2005 - 05:44 |
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| Shivan wrote: | the chance of a player getting a MVP on a 11 player is not 1/11 the second time.
Its like if you roll an 11 sided die, the chance of rolling 11 two times in a row is (1/11)*(1/11) |
But the first roll isn't significant. Thus, the first MVP is a 1 chance; it goes to SOMEBODY. The chance of that same somebody getting it a second time is now 1/11. Hey, now he's a star, he really is somebody. The third MVP is again 1/11. Remember, statistics are descriptive, not predictive. If you roll a Skull 30 times in a row, you've got precisely a 1 in 6 chance of rolling another Skull.
But anyhow, I really like the random MVP awarding. I like to think that when the guy who never showed up gets it, it's because he was in the commentator's booth fetching beers and telling dirty jokes. |
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Tinkywinky
Joined: Aug 25, 2003
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Mar 17, 2005 - 07:21 |
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Did you just resurrect an old thread to repeat the thing written four posts up?  |
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moltenllama
Joined: Feb 04, 2005
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Mar 17, 2005 - 07:35 |
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| Tinkywinky wrote: | | Did you just resurrect an old thread to repeat the thing written four posts up? |
Came from conversing with someone in person about it. Also wanted to talk about the MVP going to the non-player.
'Sides it was the top new thread for me for some reason, though looking at the last posted date I wonder why? |
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