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2009-01-24 20:21:32
35 votes, rating 4.5
35 votes, rating 4.5
Ok now this is just getting ridiculous
In my last blog entry I was rather excited about my first +ST +ST player a goblin named Weakling. While it took 326 games in ranked to get my first +ST +ST player it took only 13 more to get my second. This time it was an ogre on the very same team! The team now has two +ST +ST players and another +ST +MA (6,4 not 5,5) player in just 16 skill rolls.
Obviously this is extremely lucky but it left me wondering is it winning the lottery lucky or just making the drive home from work without having to stop for a red light lucky? Fortunately, some quick math will tell us the answer.
The chance of a player getting +ST on first two skill rolls is 0.0007716.
The average number of +ST rolls in 16 rolls is 0.444444.
The chance of getting exactly 0 +ST rolls is 0.6371603.
The chance of getting exactly 1 +ST roll is 0.2912733.
The chance of getting exactly 2 +ST rolls is 0.0624157.
The chance of getting exactly 3 +ST rolls is 0.0083221.
The chance of getting exactly 4 +ST rolls is 0.0007728.
The chance of getting exactly 5 +ST rolls is 0.0000530.
The chance of getting 5 or more +ST rolls is 0.0000559.
Five or more +ST rolls is 0.000559% or one in 17,895. So it still isn't quite like winning a huge lottery but still is quite special.
Now hopefully I can turn this good fortune into some wins. Despite this run of luck the team is a mere 6/1/5 in their first 12 games. Admittedly, most of the +ST rolls have come in the past three games and they are Ogres after all but it still seems even a not great coach like myself should have a bit better record. The team's goal is to win the Ogre XFL and if they can find enough matches to hire a few more ogres and purchase some much needed rerolls they will at least be a force to be reckoned with.
Obviously this is extremely lucky but it left me wondering is it winning the lottery lucky or just making the drive home from work without having to stop for a red light lucky? Fortunately, some quick math will tell us the answer.
The chance of a player getting +ST on first two skill rolls is 0.0007716.
The average number of +ST rolls in 16 rolls is 0.444444.
The chance of getting exactly 0 +ST rolls is 0.6371603.
The chance of getting exactly 1 +ST roll is 0.2912733.
The chance of getting exactly 2 +ST rolls is 0.0624157.
The chance of getting exactly 3 +ST rolls is 0.0083221.
The chance of getting exactly 4 +ST rolls is 0.0007728.
The chance of getting exactly 5 +ST rolls is 0.0000530.
The chance of getting 5 or more +ST rolls is 0.0000559.
Five or more +ST rolls is 0.000559% or one in 17,895. So it still isn't quite like winning a huge lottery but still is quite special.
Now hopefully I can turn this good fortune into some wins. Despite this run of luck the team is a mere 6/1/5 in their first 12 games. Admittedly, most of the +ST rolls have come in the past three games and they are Ogres after all but it still seems even a not great coach like myself should have a bit better record. The team's goal is to win the Ogre XFL and if they can find enough matches to hire a few more ogres and purchase some much needed rerolls they will at least be a force to be reckoned with.
Comments
Posted by JanMattys on 2009-01-24 20:28:03
I never had a +st+st player in my 5 years long fumbbl career.
I hate you with the intensity of a thousand suns.
^_^
I hate you with the intensity of a thousand suns.
^_^
Posted by Zombie69 on 2009-01-24 20:29:19
Keep this up, and this will be the first ogre team with more TS than TR! ;-p
Posted by MixX on 2009-01-24 20:47:22
What's even better is that Weakling the ST4 goblin has gotten it through 3 MVPs and a COMP... nothing to suggest strength at all :D
Posted by PainState on 2009-01-24 20:49:11
Well Jan you will one day get your +ST +ST blitzer on the Hellfishes and he will age fail for Niggle test your dump all players with any injury policy.
Brew_Town: You lucky, Lucky Bastard. :} Well have fun with those guys and may they die a glorious death under the boots of some DP's. Of course after they themselves but some opponeets on Boot hill and rise to the ranks of Legend. Ok maybe getting a little ahead of myself with that last comment.
Brew_Town: You lucky, Lucky Bastard. :} Well have fun with those guys and may they die a glorious death under the boots of some DP's. Of course after they themselves but some opponeets on Boot hill and rise to the ranks of Legend. Ok maybe getting a little ahead of myself with that last comment.
Posted by Rijssiej on 2009-01-25 01:42:31
Jan, I didn't get one either and I played 850 games more than you. ;)
Posted by Wreckage on 2009-01-25 11:47:47
did you calculate the chance how to get to this point without aging aswell ? ;D
Posted by brew_town on 2009-01-25 15:00:09
No I didn't add in the aging. That would make things a little more difficult but probably something like one in 20,000 not one in a million.
Posted by Russo on 2009-01-25 19:18:13
Hahh I have a +STR +STR human lino Jan, do you want to do a transfer deal to the Hellfishes for 1,000,000 and three hot cheerleaders?
Btw Brew_town enjoy it whilst you come, you may have calculated the odds of gaining so many STR increases, but get ready to calculate the odds of getting 11 deaths in a row on your team :-D
Nuffle is fickle my friend :D
Btw Brew_town enjoy it whilst you come, you may have calculated the odds of gaining so many STR increases, but get ready to calculate the odds of getting 11 deaths in a row on your team :-D
Nuffle is fickle my friend :D