smeborg
Joined: Jan 04, 2019
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 Posted:
May 21, 2024 - 06:57 |
 
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If Blaise Pascal had been a Blood Bowl player, the whole theory of probability would be different. |
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tussock
Joined: May 29, 2011
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May 21, 2024 - 08:21 |
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Only weird thing about blood bowl dice that makes them feel off, is how games with less dice rolled have a higher variance, combined with how lots of failures or lots of cas (which are the interesting parts of high variance) make for less dice being rolled.
Also gives you where games with a whole lot of block dice have proportionately few armour breaks and weak injury rolls, or at least a lot of pushes, otherwise you can't roll that many block dice in the first place. Outside of a lot of Regen or something.
So when someone says, "I rolled 80 blocks and only got 1 late cas!", it's, well, yeah. |
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Zelmor
Joined: Sep 29, 2022
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May 21, 2024 - 16:22 |
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I always shake a pair of taxidermy rat skulls in a dice cup before doing the 2+ TD rush without reroll. It chases the bad spirits away. |
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razmus
Joined: Jun 23, 2017
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May 21, 2024 - 19:57 |
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| Zelmor wrote: | | I always shake a pair of taxidermy rat skulls in a dice cup before doing the 2+ TD rush without reroll. It chases the bad spirits away. |
Maybe that's what I've been doing wrong. I've been using serpentes skulls. Do you think that would make a difference? |
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SeriliKirico
Joined: Sep 13, 2017
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May 21, 2024 - 20:12 |
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The guy you talked to fed you misleading information. Indeed, in Cyanide game there was a client-side seed... in BB1  And there was a guy (well-known in BB community) who wrote a POC tool that showed you the next roll (which was of very limited usability in real-world scenarios). Starting BB2, Cyanide games also use server-side RNG. But there is a certain group of tin-foils that still tries to unravel conspiracy behind Cyanide's RNG implementation.
Personally, I would say they are mental if they truly believe RNG is out to get them. However, when it comes to Cyanide game, which is developed by.. people of questionable skills (what they've proved again and again in the last year), I reluctantly agree with thoughts certain streamer shared before - even if RNG is itself solid, they could still implement the actual usage of it in the game client and/or server badly. Like, one possible scenario is that when client fails to pull a fresh generated value (for example, due to server being unable to handle a spike in traffic), it could just re-use the previous one (would explain occasionally getting too much of snake eyes in one game in different kinds of rolls). It even could be done intentionally by them, to cut costs, if they don't want to pay extras for faster servers to accommodate more users at peak hours. This hypothesis in case of Cyanide looks quite believable. |
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SeriliKirico
Joined: Sep 13, 2017
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May 21, 2024 - 20:32 |
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So, yes, you can predict full sequence of numbers generated by algorithm if you have the seed. But both in Cyanide's game and here you don't have one, so if somebody indeed tries to guess future rolls by the current ones, what they do is no different from these guys who try to "out-smart" slot machines in casino by searching for certain patterns which precede winning combos. It was extremely rare in the past to truly find such glitch (almost impossible now as the tech got more complex and easy to patch against such issues now), and these people are just gambling addicts with minds poisoned by survivorship bias.
Also, if a certain RNG sequence coming from some seed is shared across several simultaneous games, it's even harder to predict, as even if you know the seed, you don't know which of the values it produces will be sent to your client. |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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The RNG used by FFB is a semi-true RNG, where actual real entropy is collected from players playing the game (mouse movements). This entropy is multiplied by being used to regularly generate new keys used in an AES cipher running in counter mode.
If someone managed to get hold of, or be able to calculate, the server-side state of the RNG, this information would only be usable for a limited amount of time before the next rekeying.
The same RNG instance is used across all players in every game on the site so you're effectively sharing dice with everyone.
The dice being rolled are effectively independent of each-other, so there's no "card counting" you can do to affect the statistical variance of the dice being rolled. If someone was able to do that, it would mean that the AES cipher would be leaking information, which is something that would be a pretty big deal in the security industry.
The dice on FUMBBL are higher quality than at least 99% of the dice people are using in TT games. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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May 21, 2024 - 20:49 |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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May 21, 2024 - 21:12 |
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Physical dice rolls are worse than RNG's dice rolls because:
1) even flawless physical dice over time are affected by the rolling wear and tear (this is why Casinos replace often their physical dice);
2) even assuming flawless physical professional Casino dice (those made of transparent plastic) being rolled in tabletop games, they could not always be rolled properly (either due to lack of space on the table or people not shaking them long and well enough).
Casino dice are quite big for a tabletop game, though, so I don't think many people use them.
The GW ones are smaller than Casino dice so even a little flaw could affect their rolls. Sometimes they don't have the same plastic density all over the 6 sides due to small bubbles when they were made.
When you roll lots of them, like in WHFB, the flaws are not going to be very influent, but when one or two D6s are rolled (AV rolls or single rolls such as pick ups, dodges, passes etc.) a flawed dice could make a difference. |
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Jopotzuki
Joined: Oct 07, 2011
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May 21, 2024 - 21:45 |
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Edit: double post.... |
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| Kam wrote: | | My Flings also disappear when they're blocked... I knew that was a bug! |
| ThierryM wrote: | | CR... The synonym of E-Penis right ? |
Last edited by Jopotzuki on %b %21, %2024 - %21:%May; edited 2 times in total |
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Jopotzuki
Joined: Oct 07, 2011
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May 21, 2024 - 21:46 |
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Meanwhile in Christer's basement... |
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| Kam wrote: | | My Flings also disappear when they're blocked... I knew that was a bug! |
| ThierryM wrote: | | CR... The synonym of E-Penis right ? |
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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May 21, 2024 - 21:51 |
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| Christer wrote: | The RNG used by FFB is a semi-true RNG, where actual real entropy is collected from players playing the game (mouse movements). This entropy is multiplied by being used to regularly generate new keys used in an AES cipher running in counter mode.
If someone managed to get hold of, or be able to calculate, the server-side state of the RNG, this information would only be usable for a limited amount of time before the next rekeying.
The same RNG instance is used across all players in every game on the site so you're effectively sharing dice with everyone.
The dice being rolled are effectively independent of each-other, so there's no "card counting" you can do to affect the statistical variance of the dice being rolled. If someone was able to do that, it would mean that the AES cipher would be leaking information, which is something that would be a pretty big deal in the security industry.
The dice on FUMBBL are higher quality than at least 99% of the dice people are using in TT games. |
standing ovation |
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To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac |
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SeriliKirico
Joined: Sep 13, 2017
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May 21, 2024 - 21:58 |
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Malmir
Joined: May 20, 2008
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May 21, 2024 - 22:48 |
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| Christer wrote: | The RNG used by FFB is a semi-true RNG, where actual real entropy is collected from players playing the game (mouse movements). This entropy is multiplied by being used to regularly generate new keys used in an AES cipher running in counter mode.
If someone managed to get hold of, or be able to calculate, the server-side state of the RNG, this information would only be usable for a limited amount of time before the next rekeying.
The same RNG instance is used across all players in every game on the site so you're effectively sharing dice with everyone.
The dice being rolled are effectively independent of each-other, so there's no "card counting" you can do to affect the statistical variance of the dice being rolled. If someone was able to do that, it would mean that the AES cipher would be leaking information, which is something that would be a pretty big deal in the security industry.
The dice on FUMBBL are higher quality than at least 99% of the dice people are using in TT games. |
But you programmed in a bit where I'm not allowed to make a vital gfi with rr yes? Yes? Just tell me you did and I can sleep easier...
Cos there's no way on God's green earth that I double fail only 1/36 of my gfi with rr. I avoid them like the plague and I'm pleasantly surprised when I actually make one. |
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Igvy
Joined: Apr 29, 2007
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May 22, 2024 - 01:58 |
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There are some games like dota2 which use peusdo-rng. There are games (like this one) that use real rng.
In games with peusdo-rng failing an action makes it more likely to succeed next time.
Also true that success drops the chance of success. The rng change isnt usually based on a roll but an outcome. (In dota crit chance increases when you fail to crit, but this is tracked separately per attack type. Read up on phantom assassin to learn more.)
That said as fumbbl is a dice based game. It doesnt use peusdo-rng. This game has the best real rng simulation ive heard of. If you think you can game this rng system - im sorry but you cant. Just fooling yourself. IMO |
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