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KenThis
Last seen 9 years ago
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2011-03-01 01:07:42
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Frogs Last 24 and Still to face
There are 24 possible races in the box. All being equal one might expect to face each race once in 24 box games. Instead in their last 24 games they have only faced 10 of the 24 possible races.

6x Dorfs (1/4 of matches)
6x Chaos (1/4 of matches)
(1/2 last 24 matches v Dorfs or Chaos)
3x Nurgle
2x Orcs
2x Norse
1x Necro
1x Chaos Dorf
1x Khemri
1x Undead
1x Chaos Pact

In total my box froggys have played 67 games yet they are still to face 1/4 of the number of possible races.
Amazons
Flings
HighElves
Ogres
Slann
Vamps

They have also played 1/4 of the possible races only once
Elves
Gobbos
Humans
Necros
Underworld
Woodelves

So of my 67 Frog box games 61 matches have been played against only 12 different races.

Who says there's no variety in the box??
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Comments
Posted by Hitonagashi on 2011-03-01 02:02:49
A lot depends on your TV.

In 36 games around 1600-1800 TV, my HE have faced 15 different opponents, with my most faced being Necro, Dark Elves and Nurgle.

I'm finding there's a fair mix of teams until you go over 1800.
Posted by jarvis_pants on 2011-03-01 04:12:45
So lets check how many teams you are playing in the box and what do we find slan, ork and dwarf.

So in the last 24 games you should have played as each of the races once and instead we find that you have at best you have played 1/3 slan 1/3 ork 1/3 dwarf.

Its fun being part of the problem though right.

But as you say who says theres no variety in the box !
Posted by Arktoris on 2011-03-01 08:04:05
what's your point. It's 2011. Everyone knows that box is for dwarves.
Posted by Timlagor on 2011-03-01 10:48:31
It's hardly news that there are more of some teams than others.

I think anyone calling a Slann team "part of the problem" needs their head examined (with sharp objects) but maybe that's just me ;) -most people seem to enjoy playing against them though.

If your games did match the actual distribution of teams then that would be much more strange.
Posted by Garion on 2011-03-01 10:50:13
The box is for high elves and rats :)
Dwarves suck \o/

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team&op=view&team_id=644355

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team&op=view&team_id=644346
Posted by jarvis_pants on 2011-03-01 11:32:55
he wasn't saying he didnt like playing those teams hes talking racial diversity. he complains about it but is just as bad as the rest of us. by only playing with 3 teams.
Posted by KenThis on 2011-03-01 12:41:16
jarvis_pants
i haven't activated my dorfs in quite a while and i haven't had an ork team in the box in well over a year
i haven't checked but i would imagine my last 24 box games have all been with slann, one of the most under used races in the box
at no point in the blog do i ask for a change to the current setup.
i think that everyone should be allowed to play as they wish as long as its within the rules and doesn'y impact upon my enjoyment of the game.
If i didn't enjoy playing in the box i wouldn't. at the moment it suits me to get games when i want, that might change if ranked gets busier
As for having more varied box teams i'd be tempted to have more box teams but unfortunately i have already maxed out my team allocation.

timlagor
i understand this blog post is not groundbreaking my apologies but i did think it worth sharing as i see that this is the reason the box is ultimately doomed as being the only place to play on fumbbl

arktoris
my point is that i believe the inherent lack of variety in the box will eventually push coaches with teams that are able to get games relatively easily back towards ranked.
ranked will also be home to those coaches who decide not to take huge amounts of clawpomb on those races that currently love it
Posted by Calcium on 2011-03-01 12:46:17
Would this be vastly different in Ranked? I don't think so....
Posted by spubbbba on 2011-03-01 13:44:31
Ummm... yes Calcium.

Ken could choose not to play against the races he'd already faced multiple times before and actively look for games against Elves, Gobbos, Humans, Necros, Underworld and Woodelves.

He could try and play all 24 races in alphabetical order like some did under LRB4 or fill the new 576 game grid.
Posted by freak_in_a_frock on 2011-03-01 13:53:51
my ranked necros went over 150 games before they played their first high elf team, who says there is no variety in ranked?
Posted by Calcium on 2011-03-01 13:53:54
Some did indeed Spub. And all power to them if that floats their boat. I can say with confidence Ken wouldn't have. How do I know this? Before Ken & me melted down recently, I would play him with any team/anytime (26 games to date) regardless of the TR/TS/race. The reason? I enjoyed playing against Ken. Much as I would do with Manbush/chewie/Arktoris now. the races are irrelevant, as is the result. Sadly that got me nowhere with Ken, as on more than 1 occasion he turned down more than fair games based on dodging a team that MIGHT dish out some damage.

I like Ken, and we have had a lot of epic games. But what he is trying to achieve here baffles me a bit. What is it with the constant B vs R battle that some coaches have to fight? FUMBBL would be a poorer place without either I am sure. I for one am sick and tired of all this crap surrounding box bash and ranked cherrypicking. Just play where you like, how u like, without trying to poison either B or R.

For the record : http://www.fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=matches&coach=42570&coach2=45978

Posted by freak_in_a_frock on 2011-03-01 13:57:33
in fact my ranked necros have managed only 3 games vs high elves in 293 games, none vs flings and none vs gobbos. Also only 3 vs lizards, 2 vs vamps and 3 vs ogres. draw your own conclusions
Posted by maysrill on 2011-03-01 14:12:38
@Calcium - I also have my list of coaches who I'll make a point of trying to find a game with if I see them on. I don't know Chewie really, but Manbush and Arktoris are certainly on my list.

@freak - I think the point is, if you wanted to play more high elves, you could make a point of it. If you "let nature take its course" Ranked would probably be only slightly different from Box in race breakdown.
Posted by freak_in_a_frock on 2011-03-01 14:40:40
I tried to find a high elf game for a long, long time. As it is i think the other 2 games were cup games, so they were 'forced' to play my tea. It is not like I am a paricularly nasty coach the cas rating for most of my teams is negative. the only way i could have got a high elf team sooner was to have waited for hours, not playing, until someone finally gave in and played me.
Posted by KenThis on 2011-03-01 14:52:19
calcium
it is strange how you criticise my choice in trying to team build and then say that we should all play how we like and where we like.
as for our "meltdown" i feel you make too much of this, we sometimes played, recently you have been on my back about some sort of sleight you feel i've done you. in fact our online friendship faltered after this game.
http://www.fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&op=view&id=2985633
but has been exacerbated by trying to get me to "chat" to you during games even though from past personal experience (and watching you play) you're only happy chatting when you're getting the dice.

i'm also a sore loser but i attempt at being better by not moaning about luck or dice during games just as i try never to gloat over my opponents misfortune. besides i often do other things while playing and don't always have the time.
i try my hardest not to be rude in game chat but sometimes its easier to say nothing than to enter into a futile discussion about some contentious aspect of the game.
besides persoanlly speaking the last thing i want to do is chat with someone who spends their time moaning about the dice or bragging about my misfortune.
yes i am able to see that you rolled snakes for the second turn in a row
yes i am able to see that my star player got killed on a 1 dice block and the apo changed the rip to a rip.
I really don't require you to point these things out to me.
doing so is really you trying to feel better by making your opponent feel worse.
thats sadism and unfortunately with the anonymity of the internet there's a lot of it about.
Posted by nin on 2011-03-01 14:59:05
Not very good maths: in 24 games, even with the same number of teams of each race in the Box and no problems of TV and race distribution it would have been very unlikely for you to play exactly against the 24 races once each.

And that said, while it's true that everyone should play what he wants, if you play 3 (or fewer, as you state) races, it's no wonder that the box has an uneven distribution of races (other people has the same right to choose what they like playing, and the most poppular races are well, more poppular)
Posted by KenThis on 2011-03-01 15:00:10
Freak,
I have at least one of every lrb4 race (and frogs) in ranked.
I will play any of your teams with any of mine as long as
a) they are close enough - i'm not always a huge inducements fan
b) it's not a mirror match - i'm not a big fan of same race pair ups
c) you're not trying to take the pish - i get final say on this
Posted by KenThis on 2011-03-01 15:34:00
nin
what i said
"All being equal one might expect to face each race once in 24 box games."

I actually have a masters degree in applied maths and i do understand that if all was equal in the box then the probability of facing 1 of each race in alphabetical order in 24 games would be the same as facing 24 chaos teams in a row. That is why i qualified the above statement "one might expect"
however it still holds that the probability of playing each race once, all things being equal, would be 1*(23/24)*(22/24)*(21/24)*(20/24)*... etc
this would in fact be a higher probability than that of getting the exact same ordered set of 24 games i have just played i.e (1/24)*(1/24)*(1/24)...etc
I also believe it would be higher (though I can't be bothered to work out the exact probabilities) than getting the spread of 6x dorfs 6x Chaos etc i played above (it would be (6/24)*(5/24)*(4/24)... etc (for dorfs) *(6/24)*(5/24)... etc (for chaos) etc etc.

as for me saying people should not play as they wish.
that is not my intention.
i have not offered any solution to what i perceive to be a problem with the box.
i would not want to force anyone to play any team they didn't want to.
i do not think the apparent lack of variety should be ruled against.
i just believe that this is the main reason why ranked will bounce back.
Posted by Garion on 2011-03-01 16:37:46
I wasnt saying he should face those races, I was just saying that I have just been using elfs and rats etc... and so have other coaches. There are always going to be more Orcs dwarves etc in all divisions but in ranked you can chosen not to play them.

but if you are a glass is half full kind of guy like me then Im happy to play bashy races because it is improving me as a coach. In fact the team i fear more than any other is Pro elves. I really hate those guys.
Posted by Wreckage on 2011-03-01 16:51:38
Being someone who plays all races and activates with all races I have to say that the practical consequence is that I play much more with my orcs, dwarves and CD's then I'd normally do.
Posted by Calcium on 2011-03-01 17:46:58
This bollocks is so subjective isn't it?

We all see things our own way....this whole issue must be up there with banging one's head against a wall repeatedly....
Posted by belshamharoth on 2011-03-01 18:16:00
u forgot lizards this post needs more lizard mentions
Posted by maznaz on 2011-03-01 18:19:11
"I have a masters degree so when I talk nonsense you have to assume I meant something sensible."
Posted by Timlagor on 2011-03-01 19:04:29
Ahh I see. Sorry Ididn't recognise your propaganda ;)
Posted by Arktoris on 2011-03-01 20:42:40
I see your point now Ken.

I also see you have 98 games with a dwarf team in the box.

Gratz on being the source to your supposed problem.
Posted by Hero164 on 2011-03-02 00:07:14
Well I have a team of every race I activate every round but its an investment in slots and discourages team attachment. Unless everyone does this the stats are meaningless.
Posted by fabik on 2011-03-02 11:41:11
There's no vairiety, this is a point. If you don't like this play [R].
I love the box causeI can find a fast match and a different coach, but Yes, no variety and usually bashing match cause ppl know that no one can refuse a bloodbath match.
I don't like this cause I'm an old roleplayer and i don't feel good with the idea of Winning Builds and hardcore bashing, but this is not an RP so i understand that everyone can play as he likes.
When i don't want this approach can play [R].
Anyway ppl, let's admit; [B] is a bashing league and ppl are careless of how the play cause they know that no one can say "no, i don't play with your team".
Posted by Mr_Foulscumm on 2011-03-02 13:17:47
sigh
Posted by Frankenstein on 2011-03-03 01:18:40
Consider yourself lucky, dorfs might soon become a rare sight in the box, on top of that, the BBRC managed to downgrade orcs to tier 2, like humans, so greenskins might become a rare sight as well ;)

With LRB 7, we'll probably see the BBRC granting tier 1 status to non-core races of the Warhammer universe exclusively... ^^

Game design scrubs ftw!
Posted by fabik on 2011-03-03 07:32:24
Agree, claw-MB-PO combination nerfs them a lot, this means we will see some more elves and a lot of Chaos and similar tems.