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2011-02-19 14:59:39
30 votes, rating 5.3
30 votes, rating 5.3
Probability of ...
Hi,
after i've noticed, that some of you are quite interested in numbers, i would like to point out at TheBot. This poor little guy is available in many IRC channels here on fumbbl and has a function build in to calculate the probability of dice events.
I'll make some examples. Let's say you have to dodge (no Dodge skill) with AG3 three times and then throw a pass on 4+. For all this you have the team reroll left.
bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6
(= 37% success)
(as the prob for a dodge is 4 out of 6 and pass is accurate on 3 out of 6). You can use 4/6 or 2/3, that doesn't matter. The team reroll is activated by default.
For not using the team reroll, you insert a "trr=0", so that the example from above would become
bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6,trr=0
(= 14,8% success)
If you have rerolls, which are given through skills, you could use them, too.
Let's say a WE catcher with Sure Feet makes 2 dodges and 3 gfi and has no team reroll left, then the formula would be:
bb wsk 5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR2,5/6RR2,trr=0
5/6RR1 = The GFI with Sure Feet as RR1
5/6RR2 = The dodge with Dodge as RR2
The reroll of a certain skill can only be used once as well as the team reroll.
Btw, the probability of the last result is about 80,3% and with a team reroll left it increases to 86,5%.
Good luck testing ;-)
gan
after i've noticed, that some of you are quite interested in numbers, i would like to point out at TheBot. This poor little guy is available in many IRC channels here on fumbbl and has a function build in to calculate the probability of dice events.
I'll make some examples. Let's say you have to dodge (no Dodge skill) with AG3 three times and then throw a pass on 4+. For all this you have the team reroll left.
bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6
(= 37% success)
(as the prob for a dodge is 4 out of 6 and pass is accurate on 3 out of 6). You can use 4/6 or 2/3, that doesn't matter. The team reroll is activated by default.
For not using the team reroll, you insert a "trr=0", so that the example from above would become
bb wsk 4/6,4/6,4/6,3/6,trr=0
(= 14,8% success)
If you have rerolls, which are given through skills, you could use them, too.
Let's say a WE catcher with Sure Feet makes 2 dodges and 3 gfi and has no team reroll left, then the formula would be:
bb wsk 5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR1,5/6RR2,5/6RR2,trr=0
5/6RR1 = The GFI with Sure Feet as RR1
5/6RR2 = The dodge with Dodge as RR2
The reroll of a certain skill can only be used once as well as the team reroll.
Btw, the probability of the last result is about 80,3% and with a team reroll left it increases to 86,5%.
Good luck testing ;-)
gan
Comments
Posted by PurpleChest on 2011-02-19 15:08:43
a fantastic resource. Impressive in many ways.
But i will never use it, and would never advise others to.
The game is so much more than the numbers, and knowing them, or worrying about them, foten stifles creativity.
But i will never use it, and would never advise others to.
The game is so much more than the numbers, and knowing them, or worrying about them, foten stifles creativity.
Posted by Rabe on 2011-02-19 18:13:24
Awesome! I'd probably use it after a spectacular failure, just to be sure I really had bad luck there... :-)
Posted by spiro on 2011-02-20 00:43:32
yhm, those 3 dodges with ag 3 is this in 1 TZ ? I thought, that dodge with ag3 to clear sguare it's a 3+
Btw i saw in box the last hope actions, can't even count mathematics probability and even won't, but those ninja actions are just ridiculous and there isn't even a bit logic.
Btw i saw in box the last hope actions, can't even count mathematics probability and even won't, but those ninja actions are just ridiculous and there isn't even a bit logic.
Posted by Gran on 2011-02-20 01:15:26
Nice. Could be a good resource for spec-discussions.
@ spiro: You give the bot the success-rate, not the dice-roll needed. A 3+ dodge succeeds 4 times out of 6 => 4/6.
I won't even comment on the "can't even count mathematics probability"-thing...
@ spiro: You give the bot the success-rate, not the dice-roll needed. A 3+ dodge succeeds 4 times out of 6 => 4/6.
I won't even comment on the "can't even count mathematics probability"-thing...
Posted by spiro on 2011-02-20 18:26:07
Nope, gran, i mean, nope, that i can't because i don't know how, but i can't because it's have not sense for me.
Posted by gandresch on 2011-02-20 18:59:11
There is an easy way, if you limit the possible rolls to those, who have only one d6 in it (like dodges, gfi, passes...) and don't regard such things like AV-rolls and so on.
If a roll works on a 3+, it actually works on 3,4,5 and 6 and doesn't work on 1 and 2. So you count those results, that would have succeeded. In this case you have 4 results out of 6, that would work. So your probability is 4/6.
Because a 1 is always a failure, the probability of a result can't be greater than 5/6 (the 1 is always missing).
But a 6 is always a successful roll no matter the target. So your probability is never lower than 1/6.
BloodBowl relies a lot on intuition. The bot's function is therefor no advice for anyone, but could help people to get such an intuition for certain situations. In my case, i do not calculate before every move, but i know how i could do it and it helps me in certain situations to decide, what action is promising.
Taking the example from above: I would have never imagined, that a WE catcher, who does everything on 2+ and has 2 RR for 5 rolls can increase the probability from 80% to 86% (6% increase!), when he has the team reroll left, so he could use more RR on his move. That is quite astonishing! ;-)
If a roll works on a 3+, it actually works on 3,4,5 and 6 and doesn't work on 1 and 2. So you count those results, that would have succeeded. In this case you have 4 results out of 6, that would work. So your probability is 4/6.
Because a 1 is always a failure, the probability of a result can't be greater than 5/6 (the 1 is always missing).
But a 6 is always a successful roll no matter the target. So your probability is never lower than 1/6.
BloodBowl relies a lot on intuition. The bot's function is therefor no advice for anyone, but could help people to get such an intuition for certain situations. In my case, i do not calculate before every move, but i know how i could do it and it helps me in certain situations to decide, what action is promising.
Taking the example from above: I would have never imagined, that a WE catcher, who does everything on 2+ and has 2 RR for 5 rolls can increase the probability from 80% to 86% (6% increase!), when he has the team reroll left, so he could use more RR on his move. That is quite astonishing! ;-)
Posted by vicius on 2011-02-20 20:54:15
thats fantastic
But dont understand something
Why rr with dodge is rr2 and no rr1 like the surefeet one?
But dont understand something
Why rr with dodge is rr2 and no rr1 like the surefeet one?
Posted by gandresch on 2011-02-20 21:37:53
Hi,
the numbers on the rerolls are there to represent the skill the player has for the action. Because players can have different skills, that give rerolls (Pass, Dodge, Sure Feet, e.g.) you can give them single numbers, so that a player can use a skill several time during his action theoretically.
Example:
A player dodges on 4+ (3/6) two times with the Dodge skill (and without Tackle). After that the player is going to GFI without Sure Feet (5/6) and afterwards Pass on 5+ (2/6) with the Pass skill.
bb wsk 3/6RR1,3/6RR1,5/6,2/5RR2
RR1 represents the Dodge skill, that the player can use on the first and the second roll (if he hasn't used it on the first one). After that the gfi is without any rerolls and the 5+ pass at the end uses a reroll from Pass if the roll fails on the first roll. I didn't use trr=0, so the player has the team reroll, too, for his action. RR1 and RR2 are just substitutions for the real skills behind the reroll. You could RR7 or RR5 instead and it won't matter. If the player uses RR1 during the first Dodge in theory, he can only use the team reroll if the second dodge fails.
This way you are able to use several different skills during your calculation. I hope that helped somehow :-)
the numbers on the rerolls are there to represent the skill the player has for the action. Because players can have different skills, that give rerolls (Pass, Dodge, Sure Feet, e.g.) you can give them single numbers, so that a player can use a skill several time during his action theoretically.
Example:
A player dodges on 4+ (3/6) two times with the Dodge skill (and without Tackle). After that the player is going to GFI without Sure Feet (5/6) and afterwards Pass on 5+ (2/6) with the Pass skill.
bb wsk 3/6RR1,3/6RR1,5/6,2/5RR2
RR1 represents the Dodge skill, that the player can use on the first and the second roll (if he hasn't used it on the first one). After that the gfi is without any rerolls and the 5+ pass at the end uses a reroll from Pass if the roll fails on the first roll. I didn't use trr=0, so the player has the team reroll, too, for his action. RR1 and RR2 are just substitutions for the real skills behind the reroll. You could RR7 or RR5 instead and it won't matter. If the player uses RR1 during the first Dodge in theory, he can only use the team reroll if the second dodge fails.
This way you are able to use several different skills during your calculation. I hope that helped somehow :-)
Posted by vicius on 2011-02-21 15:01:40
thx,
it helps so much, to know wots better 3+3+ or 4+
Or with 4 or 5 rolls in the same turn, u just could use it in irc to know wich is the best option.
Thx much, awesome stuff
it helps so much, to know wots better 3+3+ or 4+
Or with 4 or 5 rolls in the same turn, u just could use it in irc to know wich is the best option.
Thx much, awesome stuff
Posted by the_Sage on 2011-11-02 12:08:48
Pro?