Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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 Posted:
Jan 30, 2023 - 00:33 |
 
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Jan 31, 2023 - 22:16 |
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The door at a back alley pub opens up and two drunk patrons stagger into the alley, talking, laughing and having a good time. They come across a guy laying in the gutter. 2 empty steins of bugmans next to him. He has a long beard and the look of a drunkard. He notices the two approaching and staggers out of his slumber.
"can I offer you my picks for the WO, i guarantee these betting picks are winners. Just 1GC for the sheet."
The two men laugh at him and walk by. One of them stops and looks over his shoulder. "Milford? is that you?". His friend looks around and grabs his friend by the shoulder, concerned about the dark alleys. "No way that was Milford, he is set up in some penthouse suite right now watching the games and making his predictions on Cabalvision (tm)."
The "sheet" of the best 13 picks of the qualifiers just lays in the gutter, the piss and watter slowly consume the parchment until it looks like a used piece of toilet paper. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Feb 01, 2023 - 06:41 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Feb 04, 2023 - 00:26 |
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With round 1 pretty much in the books it's time for a quick look at star players and overdogging in the WO!
So far, of the 38 played first round games we have seen 14 games (37%) where no star player appeared (this does include 3 matches where Bomber was induced by both sides and thus did not show up at all). If only one team induced a star player, they won 8 times (21%) while the team without the star won 11 times (29%). When both teams had stars, they had the same number 4 times, while the team with more stars won once.
On to overdog spending! While the rules have changed since the FUMBBL Cup with respect to this facet of the game, I've kept on tracking a few things. In round 1 the overdog (team with higher TV) spent from their own treasury 11 times (29%); a staggering 8 times this was to induce or not have to face Bomber. Otherwise, we had one instance of a keg being induced, one bribe, and one wizard. Of those 8 times Bomber was induced by the overdog, the team who induced him won 4 times, lost once, and Bomber failed to materialize 3 times. In general, the larger team won 20 times, or 53% of the time.
On to individual star records! These are not specific to round 1, but rather represent star performance for all matches played through today.
Bomber: 8 wins 6 losses
Morg: 4 wins 2 losses
Wilhelm Chaney: 4 losses
Griff: 2 wins 2 losses
Fungus: 1 win 3 losses
Cindy Piewhistle: 2 wins 2 losses
Hakflem: 1 win 2 losses
Helmut: 1 win 1 loss
Varag: 2 wins
Glart: 1 win
Ripper: 1 win
Frank: 1 loss
Eldril: 1 loss
Bryce: 1 loss
Rumbelow: 1 loss |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Feb 11, 2023 - 18:49 |
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Round 2 has passed us by! However, with only 25 games played it seems silly to try to extrapolate anything of meaning from such small numbers, so I'll plan to post a big overview once all round 3 games are played. However, I did want to do an update on star performance to date since that is cumulative rather than by round.
Bomber: 13/0/10
Morg: 5/0/4
Fungus: 2/0/5
Wilhelm: 2/0/4
Cindy: 3/0/2
Griff: 2/0/2
Hakflem: 1/0/3
Ripper: 1/0/3
Helmut: 2/0/1
Varag: 3/0/0
Glart: 1/0/2
Frank: 0/0/2
Bryce: 0/0/2
Eldril: 0/0/1
Rumbelow: 0/0/1 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Feb 15, 2023 - 20:38 |
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Final wrap-up for the Warpstone Open time! Here's how things shook out for star player presence and team-value comparisons over the 75 glorious games played in the tournament:
No star players appeared in exactly 1/3 of the games played (25 times), while star players played for both sides 11 times. Of those 11, 6 times the same number of stars played for both sides, while once the side with more stars won and twice the side with fewer stars won. In the majority of matches, a star played for one side only, and of those the side with a star player won 18 times (24% overall) and the side with no star player won 23 times (31% overall).
In the spirit of data fun, I thought it would be interesting to compare star player win % between the FUMBBL Cup and WO, so here you go!
No star played: FC = 20% / WO = 33%
Side with a star won: FC = 31% / WO = 24%
Side with no star won: FC = 34% / WO = 31%
Both had same # of stars: FC = 8% / WO = 8%
Both had stars more stars won: FC = 2% / WO = 1%
Both had stars fewer stars won: FC = 5% / WO = 3%
Back to the WO, the overdog team spent their own treasury in 29% of matches, and claimed a 57% win rate overall. When spending treasury, the larger team won 55% of the time, though if they spent that treasury to induce Bomber that % went up to 65%, and since 77% of the time the overdog spent treasury to induce that little rascal you could be pretty sure you'd see him at some point in your run. In total, Bomber was induced 17 times via overdog spending, with 6 of those being instances where he was induced by both teams.
On to the stars themselves! Let's see how they stack up at the end of the qualifier phase.
Bomber: 14/0/10
Morg: 6/0/4
Fungus: 2/0/5
Wilhelm: 2/0/4
Cindy: 3/0/2
Griff: 2/0/2
Hakflem: 1/0/3
Ripper: 1/0/3
Helmut: 2/0/1
Varag: 3/0/0
Glart: 1/0/2
Frank: 0/0/2
Bryce: 0/0/2
Eldril: 0/0/1
Rumbelow: 0/0/1 |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 15, 2023 - 20:54 |
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Is the up shot of all this is to imply that if you know for a fact that your foe is going to hire bomber and you can also hire bomber you should hire him also? |
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BeanBelly
Joined: Nov 14, 2019
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Feb 15, 2023 - 21:28 |
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Yup that is what I did re. Bomber. Lost though! So take with a pinch of salt.
Still faced Morg & Wiz. Got proper frogged ^^ |
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Painting myself into a corner |
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Garion26
Joined: Nov 28, 2021
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Feb 15, 2023 - 21:50 |
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I'm curious about the team (or teams) that induced Varag. What were they?
I think in the last major we had a team that consistently induced Zug and did well.
I don't think either star is 'broken' so to speak despite a single good run in one tournament. |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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Feb 15, 2023 - 22:07 |
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| Garion26 wrote: | | I'm curious about the team (or teams) that induced Varag. What were they? |
2 of the Varag wins came from Strawberry_Stomper's Centerblock run, so quite similar to tussock's run with Zug in the FC. Both coaches had perfect records with their chosen star but lost in the match when they couldn't/didn't take them. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 15, 2023 - 22:11 |
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Next major Iam going to induce Squirrel for the Buccaneers just so he does not feel left out of all this fun. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 15, 2023 - 22:14 |
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| BeanBelly wrote: | Yup that is what I did re. Bomber. Lost though! So take with a pinch of salt.
Still faced Morg & Wiz. Got proper frogged ^^ |
The interesting thing is if you are the overdog and go first on the pre-match selection. It is almost to the point now YOU DO INDUCE BOMBER. Just to put the underdog in this weird bind of: Does he match bomber to remove him from the game or accept it and go another direction.
Just a thought. |
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Garion26
Joined: Nov 28, 2021
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Feb 15, 2023 - 22:48 |
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| wintergreen13 wrote: | | Garion26 wrote: | | I'm curious about the team (or teams) that induced Varag. What were they? |
2 of the Varag wins came from Strawberry_Stomper's Centerblock run, so quite similar to tussock's run with Zug in the FC. Both coaches had perfect records with their chosen star but lost in the match when they couldn't/didn't take them. |
Interesting run for the team went in as a rookie team relying on inducements.
Their loss was when they took Ripper AND Morg instead of Varag against a very big team.
https://fumbbl.com/p/team?op=view&showmatches=1&team_id=1108544 |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 22, 2023 - 02:58 |
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The door to the ugly mermaid opens up. The stench of humanity comes billowing out. The stranger takes a step back and contemplates if he should even enter. He needs this really bad though. His family is on the brink of starvation, no jobs to be had in the city and not enough money can be made burning charcoal in the forest, not to mention the beastmen. He enters the bar and scans the room.
It is packed with all kinds of vagrants and lesser nobles. A few mercenary looking dudes hang out in the corner talking to each other. Then he sees who he came to find. In the back corner with a throng of people around him Milford is drinking it up and laughing with the patrons. 4 really large dudes and a Ogre stand around him like body guards. He approaches Milford with haste. He wants to get this over with before he gets killed in this den of thieves and killers but he needs that "sheet".
He works his way through the throng of followers and approaches Milford and calls for attention.
"Ah, good sir, I see you are eager to see the final sheet of the Warpstone open. All winners I assure you. Just 25 GC and a stein of ale is the cost."
"I will take the sheet and add a gold crown for you to buy your own ale Milford."
the man reaches into his pouch and counts out 26GC in various pennies and odd coins. No gold to be scene in this mans pouch. Milford waits with patience as his customer counts out the cash. He is curious of this stranger, he must be in bad straights. He does not look like a gambler, some one from out of town. He is on his last chance and betting it all on the "sheet". Milford is confident that at least on person will get a honest pay out and he can make a difference for his man.
"Here you go Milford. I hope the luck of Sigmar has blessed this "sheet"."
Milford waves to one of his guards and he takes the money and produces the sheet. Milford sees the guard pocket 2GC for his "services". He is confident though he will win all that money back from him later tonight at cards, that guy has no clue how to play.
"Good Sir, I assure you that Sigmar on high does not have to bless my picks. These picks are from 2 decades of watching majors, of sizing up teams. I know my stuff. Have confidence and boldly wager. By the way how much do you have left to wager?"
"I have 127GC and a book who will give me 7-1 if all your picks hit."
"Well, I can see you are in dire situation and gambling all on the Warpstone open. I understand your situation totally. Let me help you out as a fellow dire straights gambler."
Milford reaches in his pocket and hands him 100GC. One of the guards sees this and raises an eyebrow at Milford for no paying his dues.
"take that and add it to your pool of money. Bet with confidence and I would suggest at least 12 pints before you place the bet. Enjoy your winnings."
Milford is distracted by two other patrons wanting a "sheet". The desperate man turns and walks out of the bar. He is confident, he feels bold and he fells he cant lose. He comes out onto the main road and sits down on a set of stairs and scans the winning picks.
QT finals
Celebration OVER Tail Gazers
Hoofing OVER Pro Elves
Massif OVER some Physiotherapy Winner
Challenger OVER Flash
SEMIS
Hoofing OVER Celebration
Massif OVER Challengers
GRAND CHAMPION OF THE WARPSTONE OPEN
Massif |
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Comish of the:
Last edited by PainState on Feb 23, 2023; edited 1 time in total |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Feb 23, 2023 - 20:47 |
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Milford leaves the Press box of the "pit" the main arena deep in the heart of Skavenblight. A smile crosses his face as Massif take those Physiotherpist behind the wood shed and beats them up big time. Massif does not do Physiotherapy, in fact it makes them very mad
Milford is met at the door by his "man" and is handed a hefty bag of coin. Cat calls and insults are hurled at Milford as he leaves. Milford just smiles as these suckers have no clue over the sport they are covering. |
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Comish of the: |
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