Jokaero
Joined: Dec 24, 2004
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 10:43 |
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I noticed that a 1 on a GFI/rush exceptionally often rerolls into another 1.
To be clear, the first roll seems completely evenly distributed, i.e. on average every 6th GFI ends in a 1. But if this 1 is rerolled using a RR or the Sure Feet skill it seems very likely that it ends up in another 1 (like every 3rd time or so).
I observe this not only on my turns but also in my opponents'.
I was just wondering if others feel the same way? Do you think there is a way to get some statistics? |
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Azur
Joined: Nov 13, 2020
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 11:03 |
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I'm a GFI-abuser.
I use this mechanic VERY often.
I know, Father. It's a deadly sin.
And... no, I don't feel the same way. After something like 1000 games, I think my GFIs rolls appear to be evenly distributed.
But I have to admit I have no statistic to prove it! |
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HimalayaP1C7
Joined: Feb 03, 2021
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 11:52 |
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No, I’ve never thought that. Isn’t this just a case of dramatic results being more memorable than mundane ones. |
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Happy_Amateur
Joined: Jan 14, 2019
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 12:13 |
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Pretty certain that doing the maths... and I am professor of applied mathematics at *mumblemumble* university...... that the probability of rolling a second one after a failed gfi is... precisely... 100% |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 12:37 |
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Jokaero wrote: | I noticed that a 1 on a GFI/rush exceptionally often rerolls into another 1.
To be clear, the first roll seems completely evenly distributed, i.e. on average every 6th GFI ends in a 1. But if this 1 is rerolled using a RR or the Sure Feet skill it seems very likely that it ends up in another 1 (like every 3rd time or so).
I observe this not only on my turns but also in my opponents'.
I was just wondering if others feel the same way? Do you think there is a way to get some statistics? |
Yes there is. Every time you try a gfi, take note on a piece of paper. Same with your opponent. After around 10 games or so you're probably getting there. After 50 games, even more so. After 100 games you can probably contact christer if you're too off from the average. |
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Rbthma
Joined: Jan 14, 2009
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 15:34 |
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I'd assume it's a case of focusing on the roll - usually the gfi are important rolls to score, etc. so you might just notice it more. This is assuming Jokaero isn't a rushaholic (I'd assume not given his BB experience) Maybe just a bad run of RNG for gfi RR specifically?
If the RR of a 1 on a gfi was somehow compromised I'd think it has something to do with the RNG and I can't see how it would deviate so much... but that's a code side answer |
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flashman1234
Joined: May 29, 2016
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 15:51 |
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It's like intercepting a bomb. I'm sure that those intercept rolls are a 4-6 rather than normal d6 |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 16:30 |
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Jokaero
Joined: Dec 24, 2004
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 20:32 |
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As I said, I don't really feel disadvantaged by it as I felt it's the same for my opponents.
I recently played a lot of Chaos Dwarfs. I usually try some GFIs with my bull centaurs until the 1st 1 is rolled. However, it felt like in 50% of the cases when there is a 1 Sure Feet rolls into another one.
I can't imagine there is an issue with the RNG, but I think I will keep an eye on it and take some notes in the next few games. It will hopefully prove me wrong.
Quote: | It's like intercepting a bomb. I'm sure that those intercept rolls are a 4-6 rather than normal d6 |
+1 |
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wintergreen13
Joined: Apr 10, 2011
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  Posted:
Apr 14, 2022 - 21:31 |
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I audited your most recent game (wow were there a lot of rushes! I counted 14 in a single turn by your opponent), specifically for instances where a rush rolled a 1. Your CDs had 4 rushes where a 1 was rolled; 3 were successfully RRed and one failed (i.e. you rolled snakes). Your opponent's Amazons had 6 rushes where a 1 was rolled; 5 were successful and one failed. So in that match where a rush was a 1 and a reroll was applied, 2/10 were snakes. It's not really much of a sample size, but that seems to be pretty close to the odds. However, both of your snakes happened within a turn of each other and were the last two 1s rolled on rushes of the match, so it probably stood out (all 8 previous rushes where a 1 was rolled before those two snakes were successfully RRed). |
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Jokaero
Joined: Dec 24, 2004
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  Posted:
Apr 15, 2022 - 00:36 |
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wintergreen13 wrote: | I audited your most recent game (wow were there a lot of rushes! I counted 14 in a single turn by your opponent), specifically for instances where a rush rolled a 1. Your CDs had 4 rushes where a 1 was rolled; 3 were successfully RRed and one failed (i.e. you rolled snakes). Your opponent's Amazons had 6 rushes where a 1 was rolled; 5 were successful and one failed. So in that match where a rush was a 1 and a reroll was applied, 2/10 were snakes. It's not really much of a sample size, but that seems to be pretty close to the odds. However, both of your snakes happened within a turn of each other and were the last two 1s rolled on rushes of the match, so it probably stood out (all 8 previous rushes where a 1 was rolled before those two snakes were successfully RRed). |
Thanks for the effort. Yep that sounds almost average. The last game I didn't have the feeling in particularly. But it's a good idea to analyse past games. I will look through some more of my recent games. Maybe even pick some random games from random other coaches. Don't wanna make this an about me thing. |
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Amon242
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 15, 2022 - 01:21 |
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20 years of dice rolling stats probably would be a great case study on the effectiveness of computer generated random numbers. It would interesting to see longest streaks, oddities, ect.. would be a data miners dream. Tie it to changes in hardware, software and you would really get a picture of what happens. Probably a very boring straight line 1/6, but still a picture. |
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