JB
Joined: Jul 05, 2004
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 Posted:
Jan 16, 2008 - 15:48 |
 
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its unlikely to get 90k in the first game though - so two games without the count would naturally also result in more dead/injured permanent team members .... both teams are good but I'd prefer the count
and regarding PeteW Chaos: yes they are in good shape especially for a chaos team at this TR but - no tackle, only one CW and 12 players ... Pete might play well but his team is definitly not a favorite to me.
I didnt take a closer look at the other teams yet, but one thing I am sure about is that seeding will be important because of the diversity of races |
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Anthalas
Joined: Sep 14, 2005
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Jan 16, 2008 - 16:02 |
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Assuming ff 9+ for both teams the winner will get (1D6+5)x10K for the first round (including the 20k for round 1) So getting 90K+ is 50/50. Is that defined as unlikely? |
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Flix
Joined: Oct 26, 2003
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Jan 16, 2008 - 16:16 |
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specialy without the cap of 150Tr for each game, some teams get very very strong |
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JB
Joined: Jul 05, 2004
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Jan 16, 2008 - 16:33 |
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| Anthalas wrote: | | Assuming ff 9+ for both teams the winner will get (1D6+5)x10K for the first round (including the 20k for round 1) So getting 90K+ is 50/50. Is that defined as unlikely? |
yes since you calculation is a bit wrong:
combined FF 18 - average gate (3,5 per FF) = 63k
at TR 150 this is 1 D6 +2 (+1 for winning the game otherwise the whole discussion is useless in the first place) ... 6,5 k winning average
and note: next gate braket is at 59k or 60k ... so a bit below average FF rolling and you just lost 10k in your example
but even in the above example you would need a 6 and win the game to get 90k ... so yes unlikely imho, since I dont like relying on rolling a 6  |
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Anthalas
Joined: Sep 14, 2005
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Jan 16, 2008 - 16:56 |
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I included the 20k for winning first round of the tour |
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Flix
Joined: Oct 26, 2003
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Jan 16, 2008 - 20:30 |
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Fumbbl Tour will end in a Star massaker |
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PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
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Jan 16, 2008 - 21:00 |
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| JB wrote: | its unlikely to get 90k in the first game though - so two games without the count would naturally also result in more dead/injured permanent team members .... both teams are good but I'd prefer the count
and regarding PeteW Chaos: yes they are in good shape especially for a chaos team at this TR but - no tackle, only one CW and 12 players ... Pete might play well but his team is definitly not a favorite to me.
I didnt take a closer look at the other teams yet, but one thing I am sure about is that seeding will be important because of the diversity of races |
hehehehe. I entered my chaos for fun. JB is right - I won;t win. One of the pimped dwarf or undead teams will win it.
pigstar-69's team is good, and he has the skills to match. |
_________________
"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
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Arcon
Joined: Mar 01, 2004
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Jan 16, 2008 - 21:09 |
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With all these nice prepared teams in it I get the feeling I should have tried to prepare a team myself instead of just applying with the one that happened to have TR150.
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vanGorn
Joined: Feb 24, 2004
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Jan 16, 2008 - 22:48 |
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Hedge Fond Locusts will win. They have the highest total speed of all commited undead teams. %) |
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Gimme a pint of fungus beer!
Then we will climb the ladder.
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JoseBagg
Joined: Sep 10, 2004
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Jan 16, 2008 - 23:17 |
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I built my team specific for the Tour. I am not a good coach, so I don't expect to win the tourney, but I do expect to win a game or two. |
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SillySod
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
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Jan 16, 2008 - 23:36 |
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Ok, heres my take on the kind of team I expect to win a tour.
5 rounds from 6 rounds changes things a bit, it starts to favour teams that have early initial cash quite a bit more than it might. However my original conclusion still holds:
- almost all the high cash teams will get through the first round.
- the teams which will easily be strongest in 5 rounds time will be those that started with a solid teambuild and hopefully a good distribution of skills.
- any team with no money could easily find itself in trouble with a bad draw, if it faces money it'll be done for (probably)
- equally with a good draw the stronger teambuilds will gain enough cash quickly enough to field a few stars, all the time their squad will be growing stronger than the starstruck teams
- a tough teambuild with a bit of initial cash probably has the highest chance of doing very well but is sub-optimal for actually claiming the title, an all or nothing route is likely to win, I'd guess the tough team with no cash but a good draw.
- all this becomes irrelevant when Hogshine is playing PeteW.
Based on personal preference I chose the middle ground. I think the high cash teams will burn out by round 3 or 4 but will power through 1 and 2.
Hat Haters
PS I expect the winners to be in the elite/legend borderline by the end. |
_________________
Putting the "eh?" back into Sexeh.
"There are those to whom knowledge is a shield. There are those to whom it is a weapon. Neither view is balanced." |
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Arctaeus
Joined: Dec 04, 2007
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Jan 18, 2008 - 09:29 |
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Looks like I need to prepare my team a little better before a tour.
I mean.. a team rating 150 team after 14 games? Takes a good team buider to do that.
I played 6. Lol.
Next time i'll meta game a proper team. I will. |
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Arcon
Joined: Mar 01, 2004
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Jan 28, 2008 - 22:35 |
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Melmoth
Joined: May 05, 2004
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Jan 28, 2008 - 22:55 |
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| Arcon wrote: | Woha!
I am still in!
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we could meet...Only if I win next match though |
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Arcon
Joined: Mar 01, 2004
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| Posted:
Jan 28, 2008 - 23:03 |
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| Melmoth wrote: | | Arcon wrote: | Woha!
I am still in!
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we could meet...Only if I win next match though |
Yeah, maybe.
Be sure I will have a wizard and Zara with her stakes with me..
But, will that be enough??  |
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