| Poll |
| Who will win the Ulthuan Invitational IV? |
| Shadow Adepts |
|
8% |
[ 6 ] |
| Böse Böse |
|
21% |
[ 16 ] |
| Ratzingerz Todezfeinde |
|
12% |
[ 9 ] |
| Ravens All-Stars |
|
4% |
[ 3 ] |
| Your Mother's Orcs |
|
24% |
[ 18 ] |
| Faction goes ranked |
|
6% |
[ 5 ] |
| Cripples Unite |
|
5% |
[ 4 ] |
| Myranor Wanders |
|
4% |
[ 3 ] |
| Bandylag |
|
6% |
[ 5 ] |
| Sworn to Vengeance |
|
6% |
[ 5 ] |
|
| Total Votes : 74 |
|
Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
|
 Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 04:46 |
 
|
As every year Ulthuan Invitational is the most disreputable tournament in the world of Blood Bowl, because the soft teams (and not those of the light side) can get their ticket to the finals without having to fight against Orcs, Chaos or Dwarves.
However, it is still a Major, so a detailled analysis is required.
Pleae don't feel offended, if criticism of a team or of your coaching abilities does not match your own estimation, I just try to write a very subje err objective article.
Note: The team with the higher odds of a pairing is also my estimated winner of it.
Let's go, here is the first draw:
Shadow Adepts
The Adepts experienced tough games quite often, as a view on their stats reveals. This is important, because their first round opponent are the pretty overestimated Böse Böse.
At first, they look like perfectly prepared for whatever may come, but they aren't. And they will struggle against the Chaos and against any other basher, given that they lack Guard a bit and mainly Dodge.
Nevertheless these Dark Elves did fairly well against Chaos or Orcs in the past, but especially against Chaos, they seem to had an overall Team Strength advantage. That must be new to them, having to play against a considerably stronger Chaos team.
Strengths:
3x +ST
3x DP
A freaky Blitzer - played against them with my Chaos in the short past, and he was responsible for their win
Weaknesses:
Only 1 Witch Elf
Lack of Dodge
Empty treasury
Chance to win the finals: 16%
VERSUS
Böse Böse
An uber team and a standard coach. Having played against Lewdgrip sometimes and spectated some of his games, I truly believe, that he trips himself up sometimes by unnecessary actions, false set-ups, etc.
Anyway he is in the finals and not with a 08/15 team but with THE basher in UI IV and probably the second best team among all finalists.
He had it quite easy to get through the qualifiers by a 1st round forfeit and therefore, Böse Böse deserve an extra portion of anitpathy in their 1st round game.
His last game was the qualifiers final. He suffered a mng and guess what... he didn't play a recovery game in the meantime. Found no opponent? :p
Not only to get this beastman recovered for the UI, he could need a bit more gold. 85k reaches for 1 game. With TR 301+, he can't reckon enough winnings, to get at least a Wizard every game.
Strengths:
Elf nightmare - Tackle on almost every player
Elf & Orc nightmare - Guard on EVERY player except the Dirty Players
4x Claw MB combination, his blocks may hurt every round, because the opponent won't be able to hunt them all down fast
Block on Troll (gets important against strong teams)
Weaknesses:
No ball handler
Compared to that Team Rating, lack of real good Blitzers (+MA, +AG)
Low treasury
Boo factor - will get booed out in every turn
Chance to win the finals: 12%
Second draw:
Soylent Greener
This draw is rather unspectacular, not because of the races, they promise an entertaining game, but because of the roster quality.
Optihut with his very first tournament success (won the UI IV qualifiers) could be overstrained with this tournament. You know, the nerves, thousands of blustering fans, all the medial attention...
Optihut brings in solid Lizardmen... and in case of Lizardmen, solid isn't enough. Until now, Lizardmen in Blood Bowl failed to show, that they can reach for glory.
I doubt, that any kind of further success in this tournament is possible for them.
Strengths:
+ST +AG Skink - we've seen it all in the second UI IV game, where a soley Skink of this kind shocked PeteW...
Mobile Sauri
Showed ability to beat much stronger teams
Weaknesses:
Miss totally hurting skills
Wasted Stand Firm - against Skaven, SF is unnecessary, against Dark Elves or Chaos (2nd round), it can be seen as an advantage
Weak Skinks - they get injured fast, that is why you need good replacements for your Side Step Diving Tackle stunties... he hasn't
Low Fan Factor
Chance to win the finals: 4%
VERSUS
Ratzingerz Todezfeinde
Skaven.  There are always some masochists, who seem to enjoy the fun of AG3 & AV7
AoP-Vimes is another coach, who hasn't experienced much tournament atmosphere.
Luckily Skaven possess a One-Turner, so they can luck out the one or the other game.
It may be, that AoP-Vimes takes his UI games not very seriously, therefore and because of the racial factor, I see no potential winner in this tournament.
Strengths:
One-Turner
Block Big Guy (against Lizardmen always useful)
Enough Tackle to blitz every skink wanted
Weaknesses:
Only 14 players in the roster
No Gutter Runner blitzers, in defense, a Leap Dauntless or Horns GR can cause real trouble
1x MB, 1x Claw, that's too less
Chance to win the finals: 6%
Semi-final:
Ravens All-Stars
High Elf with an easy-cheesy qualifiers.
This team advanced now to the semi-finals to my surprise! I thought, that Linfalass' Cintras would win. I didn't spectate the game, has it been an unlucky defeat for them?
Ravens All-stars suffered some damage_ -AG in the 1st game and 1 killed player. I was wondering, that it was only one killed Elf, because during the game, two dead Elves were lying in the R.I.P box... ?!
However almost every team with multiple +ST increases has to be seen as strong. So it is for the All-Stars. They are well equipped for a tournament, where different races participate. Enough Blodge to annoy basher and enough Tackle to get a suitable Blitz in every round. Unfortunately the tragedy of their tournament record in the first two games will probably stop them from winning the whole thing.
Strengths:
3x +ST
Massive amount of Blodge
Side Step for good defense
High Fan Factor
Weaknesses:
Only 12 players
Bad record against semi-final races Dark Elf or Chaos (9/4/9; 2/3/2)
Chance to win the final: 14%
VERSUS
Unknown yet
Second round:
Your Mother's Orcs
This team is solid, solid as a rock! And I found out why: http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team&op=pastplayers&team_id=435240 ... after 37 games only 5 players were retired!
Luck is all along with this team and PeteW, so why try and work out strengths and weaknesses, if they will win the tournament anyway? The reason is, that Nuffle is a capricious god.
Strengths:
Enough Guard to make it a blockfest for the Orcs
Paralysing Thrower - will he foul, will he pass? (catches concentration 
3x Dirty Player
Enough money even after the fourth Blitzer is bought
Weaknesses:
Only 2x Tackle
Low Fan Factor
5 Re-rolls, for Orcs not the best situation during a tournament
No Tackle on Black Orc Blockers
Very inexperienced coach
Chance to win the final: 12%
VERSUS
Dark Elf or Lizardmen (more likely)
Sixth draw:
Faction goes ranked
With playing against Dark Elfs in the 1st round and being lucky in the 2nd round, everything would be possible.
Why?
Strengths:
Three potential one turners or two potential one turners and a potent thrower (AG4 MA9 Skink).. what is needed for a standard one turn score with Lizardmen? 2+ 3+ for Pick Up and Pass, 3+ 3+ 3+ 3+ 2+ 2+ , if the chainpushes work too, then one or two GFI's can be spared
Block and Dirty Player on Skinks
Weaknesses:
Only 14 players, I strongly recommend, to spend 60k before the 1st game for another Skink
2x Guard - I've seen little amount on Guard in Lizardmen being a problem against Orcs/Chaos (and this race waits for them in 2nd round)
Questionable coaching skills
8326 Blodge Side Step Stunty Skink... too less agile to dodge, too fragile to bash but still increasing Team Rating by 14 points
Chance to win the final: 11%
VERSUS
Cripples Unite
A Dark Elf team with a casuality difference of 164 in just 80 games... hm?
Brute play expected!
Strengths:
Tackle en masse against Lizardmen, yes, actually even against Amazon
4x +AG
Good defense skills (Side Step, Jump Up, Shadowing)
Weaknesses:
Unexperienced against Lizardmen
12 players
Chance to win the final: 5%
Second round:
Myranor Wanderers
A sympathic team. It is due to teams like the Myranor Wanderers, that we ugly coaches with even more uglier races (Orcs, Khemri, Chaos) get from time to time a cross game.
Oventa succeeded in a very tough qualifiers. A shame, that he didn't improve his team in the one week pause.
This, and the lack of any outstanding players, except the treeman, makes it very hard for the Wood Elves to win the Ulthuan Invitational IV.
Strengths:
PrimeWood - a Treeman of the wildest dreams of Wood Elf coaches became reality
Lots of Dodge
Extremely experienced in coaching Wood Elves (permanent user with WE in DBL league 1)
Weaknesses:
Vulnerable with 13 players and 55.000 Gold in treasury and two niggling players
Probably Chaos Dwarves in round 2 --> struggling in round 3 against Orcs or One Turners Lizardmen
Chance to win the final: 8%
VERSUS
Unkown yet
Eighth draw:
Bandylag
BooAhl, the warhorse, is trying to win a major with Chaos Dwarves this time. Skaven: Failed, Lizardmen: Failed, Chaos Dwarf: ?
Even if Chaos Dwarves belong to the bashy and feared races, it is nice to see them in a Major. It's been long ago, since the last Chaos Dwarf won one.
Strengths:
Versatile Bull Centaurs... it is always nice, if the heart of a team (in this case BCs) are the bright side of it
3x Dirty Player on Hobgoblins - no need to fear an ejection on a fouling action of a Chaos Dwarf
Weaknesses:
A bit too less Guard and Mighty Blow - like when having to blitz, which will be done with Bull Centaurs usually, the Blitz will hit without Mighty Blow :/
MNG for a rookie Chaos Dwarf, that means three Hobogoblins during the drive which can result in being outbashed quite soon, especially in combination with the lack in Guard and Mighty Blow - luckily the first round opponent is a snack only
Chance to win the final: 11%
VERSUS
Sworn to Vengeance
Yes, you're the snack!
No Dirty Player, three average Black Orc Blockers only, 16 Fan Factor and the first big tournament you're playing in, what can be the expectance of your participation in this tournament? Well, maybe this is the only positive aspect: Underestimation... lazy offense and Zack! their wizard turns the game in favor for them.
Strengths:
2 handicaps against the first round opponent
8x Guard
Block on Big Guy
7 Re-rolls (bad in ranked, good in tournaments)
Used to play up in TR/TS
Weaknesses:
No Dirty Player for the first game
Only three Black Orc lockers
Low Fan Factor
Not much tournament experience
Chance to win the final: 1% (biggest underdog)
Official bet: If Sworn to Vengeance wins (no coin toss) the 1st round, I promise to play in the very next Speed Freaks Challenge Legend I know of!
If I win the bet, I don't have to play a SFC logically but am still allowed to mock teams like this in Majors...
Summary:
My strength rating:
Shadow Adepts>Ravens All-Stars>Your Mother's Orcs>Böse Böse>Bandylag>Faction goes ranked>Myranor Wanderers>Ratzingerz Todezfeinde>Cripples Unite>Soylent Greener>Sworn to Vengeance
PS: I started to write the analysis, when no games were played. |
|
|
Mateuszzzzzz
Joined: Feb 26, 2006
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 04:59 |
|
Bit late, but still enjolable read. We need more of those.
Ps: Yes, tekoda was lucky in match vs linfalass (who was also unlucky to add). He was also lucky in match vs Randomoracle. Can Petew stop him? |
|
|
PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 13:01 |
|
I <3 u Dominik...  |
_________________
"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
|
Rijssiej
Joined: Jan 04, 2005
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 13:37 |
|
|
BiggieB
Joined: Feb 19, 2005
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 13:50 |
|
| PeteW wrote: |
I <3 u Dominik... |
found ya soulmate eh? |
|
|
Optihut
Joined: Dec 16, 2004
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 13:53 |
|
| PeteW wrote: |
I <3 u Dominik... |
Hehe, yeah I thought it was funny. Smiled at that one. I guess it's only fair after that freebooter of yours when the superheroes were facing the Turniermumien. |
|
|
PeteW
Joined: Aug 05, 2005
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 14:29 |
|
| Optihut wrote: | | PeteW wrote: |
I <3 u Dominik... |
Hehe, yeah I thought it was funny. Smiled at that one. I guess it's only fair after that freebooter of yours when the superheroes were facing the Turniermumien. |
Hehehehehe - well remembered! |
_________________
"Jesus loves me this I know, 'cos my Bible tells me so." MrMojo - where did you go? |
|
Texan
Joined: Dec 14, 2005
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 15:52 |
|
That is great work Dominik--keep it coming.
The only problem is that you forgot to list "ultimate noob" under pete's qualities. |
_________________
Pie--cherry. |
|
Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 22:31 |
|
Shadow Adepts didn't make it... my whole analysis is now put into question. |
|
|
Cloggy
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 22:34 |
|
It may not be totally correct Dominik, but it's very nice work anyway.
Quite an effort too, you could have played..... well....... 0.5 games of Bloodbowl in the time this must have taken |
_________________
Proud owner of three completed Ranked grids, sadly lacking in having a life. |
|
lobocamaleon
Joined: Jul 07, 2006
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 22:40 |
|
Nice going Dom. These kind of posts add a lot of value to my fumbbl experience! |
|
|
Qaz
Joined: Apr 28, 2004
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 23:14 |
|
Great work Dominik this stuff really adds to all the fluff and fanstuff around majors. That said I am sad that you did not post it before Lone Star played. |
_________________
Superstition brings bad luck.
"he who has relied least on fortune is established
the strongest"
Niccolo Machiavelli |
|
Dominik
Joined: Oct 29, 2004
|
| Posted:
Apr 20, 2008 - 23:24 |
|
Unexperienced real life troubles stopped me from finishing and releasing it in time. 
Do your Lone Stars compete in the GLT? |
|
|
shadow46x2
Joined: Nov 22, 2003
|
| Posted:
Apr 21, 2008 - 00:17 |
|
the sad part is, i can actually see it being lewdgrip & pete in the finals...
pete deserves to be there...for obvious reasons...
lewdgrip?....he doesn't succeed in this tourney because of skll, because he has little...he's proven on numerous occasions that his "skill" is his ability to cherrypick and boost himself by preying on the weak and ignorant....i just see his team advancing due to sheer birthday boosting douchebaggery...
i can only pray that lewd's ability to undermine himself anytime he comes across any real competition kicks in...
on another entirely different note...i think i should have at least ranked above the rats *cry*...then again, i'm shocked i even qualified in the first place
--j
ps...i'm even more shocked that someone actually voted me to win the whole thing...what the hell were you thinking? |
_________________
| origami wrote: | | There is no god but Nuffle, and Shadow is his prophet. |
  |
|
Reisender
Joined: Sep 29, 2007
|
| Posted:
Apr 21, 2008 - 00:33 |
|
as a proud member of lewdgrip´s blacklist i hope everybody follows my example - T16 foul the cherrypickers! (not that it would help, but at least it makes them angry...) |
|
|
|
|
| |
Gnomes are trash
Search
