Perox
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 15:01 |
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Coach ranking was included in the match report. But I wonder what are those numbers at the top, for instance:
64 - 36
57 - 43
What does it mean? I have a feeling these are percentages or something. Does anyone know?
Perox. |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Perox
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 17:25 |
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Care to share? |
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MixX
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 17:25 |
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Mully
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 17:43 |
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I could tell ya ........but then I'd have to kill ya. |
_________________ Owner of the REAL Larson
Come join the CCC League |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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It shows the estimated win probabilities as calculated by the ranking formula. There are two rows as I am checking out a potential change in the formula. One of them is the current way, the other is the new way.
It's just temporary, so don't get overly used to it.
Oh, and I wouldn't mind it if you looked over your last few games and let me know which one is more accurate. If you do this, it's best if you look at a variety of matches, high/low str, big/small difference in coach ranking, varying races, etc. |
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AsperonThorn
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 18:57 |
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Ok, I don't understand this match then. According to both those numbers I was expected to win. My str was higher, and my coaches ranking was higher. But it ended up a tie. My coaches ranking went up, as a result, and his went down.
Shouldn't it have been the opposite?
Asperon Thorn |
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Mully
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 19:27 |
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Asperon - yes it should have
My guess is it would have gone down to 152.1. I think I know what the problem is if you are comparing your coach ranking for the game, with the current coach ranking on your home page. But I'll let Christer elaborate if he wishes as I don't want to say anything I shouldn't. |
_________________ Owner of the REAL Larson
Come join the CCC League |
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LordSigmund
Joined: Jan 28, 2004
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 20:22 |
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i like this game then |
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Marley
Joined: Aug 03, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 20:45 |
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Colin
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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  Posted:
Apr 22, 2004 - 21:13 |
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On LordSigmund's post: There seems to be something a bit wrong with the way Ogre teams have Team Str calculated - it seems that the goblins are a bit undervalued for their importance to the team. At least the Ogres are valued higher than regular Big Guy Ogres in other teams, so that looks right. On the stats page, linked below, Ogres do lose most of their 0 dRating games - 26/21/54 (I'm guessing those are almost all rookie team results); this is a similar ratio to the 2nd probablity (21/79) suggested in the game report.
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats&op=results&race=23
On Marley's post: I can't read the report, but the only question is, did the losers have a 7% chance of victory, or a 1%? I'm sure Christer is gathering up data to see which it is. I lean towards 1% (if that) |
_________________ Join The Cult of Tzeentch, mutate randomly! | Hug a newb! Join the Faculty of Academy Instructors! |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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And now the values are not temporary anymore. They're gone. There was no apparent benefit of changing anything.. You could almost think that this Elo guy who came up with the system that's being used virtually everywhere actually knew what he was doing |
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