Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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 Posted:
Aug 01, 2004 - 16:00 |
 
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You have 2 re-rolls, 2 turns left in second half and 1 TD to tie the game and you know if you score this turn the elf team has a great chance of scoring again winning the game.
Currently he has no chance of getting the ball and you have 2 players who could level with a completed pass and touch down.
So you move into position and decide in not waiting to score the TD and trust in your defense to stop a 2 turn TD. You pass (2), re-roll (1). Ball falls into the end zone.
The elf team with two rolls of 6 makes it to the ball picking it up in 2 TZ but misses his dodge out dropping the ball 1 square from the end zone. Easy pick up on a 3+ with a re-roll right?
First roll (2), Second roll (1).
This dice generator sure doesn't follow the law of averages.
I've seen enough 1s in a game I'd be rich if this dice generator were being used for a craps table. |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:05 |
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It happens. The rolls are as random as they can get. Which is more random than a plastic thing with six sides rolled to create a random number. You wouldn't be complaining if they were rolls of 5 and 6, and I can guarantee you that they happen just as often.
How many times must this come up? There's psychology involved in this game as well. You notice ones. You don't notice anything else. |
_________________
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Aug 01, 2004 - 16:14 |
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| Mezir wrote: | It happens. The rolls are as random as they can get. Which is more random than a plastic thing with six sides rolled to create a random number. You wouldn't be complaining if they were rolls of 5 and 6, and I can guarantee you that they happen just as often.
How many times must this come up? There's psychology involved in this game as well. You notice ones. You don't notice anything else. |
Mezir you are wrong.
The probability of 1,1 is 1/36, .. 1,2 is 2/36 and so on. You have a better chance with this dice generator of rolling double 1s or double 6s then you do a total of 7 which is a probability of 6/36.
Unless you're gonna tell me casino's who make billions a year off the odds are some how wrong. 
I've paid close attention to the high end and low end rolls of this game and it just doesn't appear to average out. |
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marcusbay
Joined: May 21, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:14 |
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but there are just some games that your luck is a joke, 4 turns of pushbacks n double skulls... and 1's...
but then, games where nothing goes wrong... all seems a little wrong to me tho.. hardly any games where its in the middle  |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:17 |
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| marcusbay wrote: | but there are just some games that your luck is a joke, 4 turns of pushbacks n double skulls... and 1's...
but then, games where nothing goes wrong... all seems a little wrong to me tho.. hardly any games where its in the middle |
Exactly.. In more then 200 games I've yet to play an average game. Always really lucky or really unlucky. |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:24 |
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DaBoss. Take the program. Roll the dice 1000000 times. See how much you rolled everything. Once you've done that you can complain the dice do not comply to the law of averages. I will not accept "I have watched closely." I want to see hard numbers. |
_________________
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:28 |
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Mezir
I understand you wanting to defend a game you like.. I like it to, matter of fact I love it.
But I don't like the feeling that some games are stacked against me and my opponent some how is getting some computer generated handicap behind the scenes and LIKEWISE I've played games where I felt I had this same handicap and no matter how foolish I got I was gonna win this game.
Case in point I was playing a game where I felt I just couldn't lose even if I made mistakes; so a winning touch down by my opponent if he did two GFI WITH A RE-ROLL made me think well lets let him have it and see if the game does so I pulled off my blitz and set my players up for picking up the ball if he failed. He rolled double 1s on his go for it and I proceed to pick up the ball 3+, throw a long bomb 5+, hand off the ball 3+, and two go for its to score the touch down.
After that game even though I won I almost quit playing. |
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Jinxed
Joined: Jul 04, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:32 |
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Consider yourself lucky.
At least you do have some succes..
I know one thing for sure; my dice will betray me when it matters.
For I am Jinxed. And my poor dice are legendary even in hell. |
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G_u_s
Joined: Jun 16, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:34 |
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stop giving us picked examples of your choice, and do what mezir told you. roll the dice 100 000 and if the repartition is REALLY messed up, then we MIGHT begin to think that something's wrong.
as a sidenote: SkiJunkie didn't create the random numbers generator, he uses Sun Java's one. which is used in all the programs which use the Java plaform.
yeah, sure, Sun cannot program a decent random generator...
i'm with mezir on this one, HOW LONG will we have to cope with people that don't know the _meaning_ of RANDOMNESS...? |
_________________
There's 10 different kinds of people on Earth: those who can understand binary, and those who cannot. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:35 |
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Gus..
lol.. I'm gonna look for an article I read 5 years ago that said computers can't generate true randomness. |
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Zweiblumen
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:35 |
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marcusbay
Joined: May 21, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:36 |
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if you have 100 really unlucky games and 100 really lucky games it evens out... dont it? doesnt mean it seems to be handicapped either way all the matches..
some games i just POW POW the whole match, then next match double skulls for life!
not saying its a bug, or fixxed or anything just pointing out what ive noticed.. |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:42 |
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A great and tested read on computers and random generating numbers.
http://home1.gte.net/deleyd/random/introduction.htm
From how stuff works..
http://www.howstuffworks.com/question697.htm
| Quote: | | You can create a formula that generates a pseudo-random number. When designing the formula, the idea is for it to produce a string of numbers that would look random to anyone who did not know what the formula is. Characteristics of a good formula include: |
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Last edited by Renno on %b %01, %2004 - %16:%Aug; edited 1 time in total |
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G_u_s
Joined: Jun 16, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:45 |
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man, nothing can generate true randomness... a dice is random only because we don't have the capacities needed to predict on which side it will land. but if we had, by measuring its speed, angle, rotation, etc, we could predict it.
computer randomness is the same. the numbers are not literally random because they're pregenrated, but since there's no mean for you to know the list, they are random.
EDIT: great and tested ? great by which standards ? tested by who ? |
_________________
There's 10 different kinds of people on Earth: those who can understand binary, and those who cannot.
Last edited by G_u_s on %b %01, %2004 - %16:%Aug; edited 1 time in total |
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thecoyote
Joined: Jul 06, 2004
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Aug 01, 2004 - 16:45 |
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The problem is in defining a "random" number within a computer. Computers do NOT "roll" a random number. In order to create a randomness in picking a number, a computer uses a mathematical algorithm. In defining that computers use mathmatics (and therefore, some kind of formula or system to generate random numbers), it cancels the possibility of being truly "random". Yes, you may see numbers that average out, but believe that you cannot truly generate a random number in a computer. This is why you see strings of 1s, and also strings of 2 dice skulls. This happens with any random number generator, not just those in the game.
To really create a random number, you have to realize exactly what goes on when you roll dice. This means taking into account things such as the relative gravity of the area, the imperfections in the surface of the dice and also the surface of the place where rolled, the physics of the rolling itself, and many other minute factors.
Is there luck involved too? Imperically, no, but I happen to believe in luck in actually rolling dice. In the game, however, I think luck is defined in getting/ not getting the strings of bad numbers that we see from time to time (whether for us or against us). I can tell you that twice I have seen two positional players on my teams (both of the same positions) get RIPped in the same game. If you want to talk about probabilities and functions, figure out what the probability of that would be. Don't forget to factor in that on one team, the players killed were dwarves with 9 armor, and on another, the players killed were werewolves with 8 armor. If you do the math, the probability of these events happening is astronomical, and this has happened to not only my teams, but others as well.
However, I don't let these things get me down. After all, the game is BLOOD bowl, and players are expected to die. So what do you do? You relax, have fun, and take a laugh in the fact that your two star dwarf blitzers just got creamed. Retire the team. Make another one. Pick softer targets. Enjoy the craziness of the game.
thecoyote |
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