Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 18:17 |
 
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| Shepherd wrote: |
Can somebody smarter than me figure out a quick way to crunch all the replay data for the overall dice spread? Just curious.
- Matt |
I could do it if the log files saved the order of the dice rolls. It currently only gives you the amount of times each number was rolled. The data so far shows that the much vaunted "Law of Averages" applies to the dice generator. However people often complain about streaks of numbers. I wrote down elsewhere the method I would use to check if the amount of streaks was out of the ordinary. But with the log as it is I can't double-check.
So barring that we'll just have to put up with people putting their freak occurences up on the forums. |
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HoboJed
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 18:46 |
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Heh.. I just took a look at the replay and "13 ones in a row" is an over exageration to say the least... yes, there were a lot of 1s and skulls on "important" dice rolls, but the client doesn't distinguish between types of dice rolls... it doesn't have one generator for blocks, another for armour, and another for agility rolls. So basicaly you were just unlucky to have your "important" rolls land on 1s and skulls... but still, there wasn't even an unbroken string of 5 1s/skulls on "important" rolls, let alone 13. And a row of 4 1s and skulls is hardly a freak occurance...  |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 19:00 |
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I would like a real RANDOM generator. A RANDOM generator that rolls 1, then 2, then 3,4,5,6,then1,2,3,4,5,6. At least every score would occur and this would be a very cool RANDOM generator. |
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MorbidDeath
Joined: Mar 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 19:01 |
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Well folks. Many people have had their say about a long term topic which has pooped up in various forms throughout the fourm pages.
So I will add my little say.
I dont care if I roll 13 double white skulls in a game
I dont care if I roll ALL POW´s in a game
I just want to see more players in RIP when I pile 8 players around them and foul them - I truly feel sad when the resulty is only a stun |
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MorbidDeath
Joined: Mar 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 19:02 |
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For anyone that did not realize - I was being absolutly serious.
lol |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 19:04 |
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| HoboJed wrote: | | Zippy_Wonderdog wrote: | Well whoopee do you just contradicted yourself my point was that over a given length of time you should get a variation in the results not 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 etc.
That isn't random thats just bullshit and the longer it goes on the more improbable it becomes. |
Did you know that the probability of rolling 13 1s in a row is only 1 in 10,085,472? "ONLY 1 in 10,085,472?!!?" I hear you cry! Well lets assume that you roll 1000 dice in one game, well that means that there were 988 rows of 13 dice in each game, which means that you should expect a row of 13 1s about once every 10208 games. So if each game has a 1/10208 chance of it happening, that number isn't quite as big any more! "It's still quite big though" you may argue... "I haven't played 10208 games"!!!
Well the useful "Did you know?" message is currently telling me that there have been 272998 matches on fumbbl! That means a row of 13 1s is likely to have happened approximatly 27 times in fumbbl's history (possibly more, possibly less). So why oh why couldn't one of those 27 times have been your match? |
No it happend to me too. I rolled:
1,3,6,5,6,3,1,1,2,4,4,2,6.
This happens with a probability of 1/10208 so about once every 10208 games. Wow I should remeber this game with emotion.
But I still think
something is defenaltly wrong with the dice generator. I can't have rolled that suite of dices. |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 19:07 |
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we will see it on our game morbid. I will false the generator to fill then Dead box mwahahahahhahahahhaa |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 22:06 |
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| MorbidDeath wrote: | Well folks. Many people have had their say about a long term topic which has pooped up in various forms throughout the fourm pages.
So I will add my little say.
I dont care if I roll 13 double white skulls in a game
I dont care if I roll ALL POW´s in a game
I just want to see more players in RIP when I pile 8 players around them and foul them - I truly feel sad when the resulty is only a stun |
You're my kinda guy.... When do we play? |
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MrMojo
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 22:12 |
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| sk8bcn wrote: | | something is defenaltly wrong with the dice generator. I can't have rolled that suite of dices. |
Yes you could. Dice are as random as it gets and I've rolled some weird results with real dice in my time.
If you think youre cd-player is random, when you select shuffle, you're so wrong. Random is something else. And as far as I've concerned, the dice generator is random enough. |
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eWok
Joined: Nov 02, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 06, 2004 - 22:56 |
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Yes, dice-generator is random.
Its based upon the CPU clock or something... didnt read all of the posts in the topic, maybe someone said something about it. But has MrMojo says, its really a good random and its better then the real dices, since no special twist when throwing or no "lucky dices" are involved.
For rolling something like 6 ones in a row, happens, happended to me. Getting all my players injuried and me not passing armors... happened.
But me rolling 6 sixes ina row... happened too! Me taking out a bit part of the opponent team without getting a single player even BH... happened too.
You dont put any energy on criticism when you are winning. You dont think about it. You are feeling some euphoria, why the hell would you question the fact you just rolled 3 sixes for dodging with 3 TZ's!!! But when the tide turns and your opponent scores 2 lucky touchdowns for the win, and you fail a GFI to blitz the carrier who just scored the winner... man... dices are really fscked up and man... you werent lucky all game long.
Here is a little question for you: You never rolled 2-3 6's in a row??? Never ever??? You sure about it??? Oh! You rolled some... why then saying you roll only ones then...
Nuff said... luck is only in nuffle's hands. Dont critic the dice system. You cant win all the time. Just make sure you take the easiest actions first, and use a good strat to position your players on the board... then, hope for enough luck to beat the opponent...
You cant stand the luck involved in Blood Bowl??? Go play chess or checkers!!!  |
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Mezir
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2004 - 01:03 |
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| MrMojo wrote: | | sk8bcn wrote: | | something is defenaltly wrong with the dice generator. I can't have rolled that suite of dices. |
Yes you could. Dice are as random as it gets and I've rolled some weird results with real dice in my time. |
Er, I think sk8bcn was arguing for the randomness of the dice roller, so unless you're being ironic about an ironic statement... |
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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day; set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life. |
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Azurus
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2004 - 01:05 |
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| Mezir wrote: | | MrMojo wrote: | | sk8bcn wrote: | | something is defenaltly wrong with the dice generator. I can't have rolled that suite of dices. |
Yes you could. Dice are as random as it gets and I've rolled some weird results with real dice in my time. |
Er, I think sk8bcn was arguing for the randomness of the dice roller, so unless you're being ironic about an ironic statement... |
No Mez, don't stop him!
If we confuse them enough they might stop with this nonsense! |
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Glomp
Joined: Jan 04, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2004 - 01:09 |
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Yellow sheep bounce west now? |
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Forum terrorist. |
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Zy-Nox
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2004 - 01:39 |
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just for a laugh it was rumoured you could b=never roll tripple/ double skulls on table top if using the black and white dice mix ( ie two black one white or vice versa) well i did loads  but not much as using two white or two black weird huh =] |
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annachie
Joined: Jul 27, 2004
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| Posted:
Nov 07, 2004 - 01:52 |
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For the fun of it, I just roughly parsed an Ogre - Ogre game for Bone Head rolls. (Both players thought Bone Head dominated too much)
Combined, 24 fails out of 108 rolls or 22.2% Which I suppose isn't too bad. Should be 16.67% on average.
So why, when we failed 6 Bone Heads in a row, were 4 of them my 4 active Ogres?
Complain as I do, and I do, it aint too bad.
From the 4 games my Ogre team have played in the Ogre league, I have combined Bone Head rates of, in no particular order, 22.22%, 13.73%, 19.2%, and 18.49% or 18.5% over the 4 games. (86/465) |
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