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argos_72



Joined: Mar 02, 2007

Post   Posted: Sep 30, 2021 - 12:18 Reply with quote Back to top

Where this was already discussed in this post
https://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=29347&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

i still have some question on the Coach Ranking calculation after one match so sorry if i create a new specific post.

I think the formula of the new ranking is explained here
https://fumbbl.com/help:Ranking

what I do not fully understand is how to calculate dT (so who is S1 and S2) , r and K.

Example you are Coach 1 and want to calculate your win probability (let's consider it is a mirror match in Competitive)
Coach 1: CR 165, TV = 1000
Coach 2: CR 155, TV = 1050
dR = 155-165 = -10
dT = 100 * [s1/min(s1,s2) - s2/min(s1,s2)]
= 100 * [1000/1000 - 1050/1000] = 100*[1- 1.05] = 100 * (-0.05) = -5
so P = 1/(1 + 10 exp (-10/40 -5/70)
= 1/1,477 = 67%

So the weight of the CR is much more important that a 50k tV gap (after inducements): is my understanding correct?

Finally I would be curious to understand better these factors of the formula

1)
r:
racial modifier: there is a link but not clear.
I presume this means that if you play CD vs Amazons you has more probability to win...?

2)
K division specific
How will work that Competitive and Box that will be merged together?

thanks for clarification!!
Christer



Joined: Aug 02, 2003

Post   Posted: Sep 30, 2021 - 12:47
FUMBBL Staff
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First off, the help page is slightly out of date. The roster factor (r) has been removed as it proved to be detrimental the way it was implemented.

K is for the most part set to 2, except there is a K inflation that happens when there is an underdog victory between two coaches in different ranking brackets. If an "Experienced" coach wins a game against a "Legend", K is higher than normal and the CR transfer will be greater. This essentially makes it less CR profitable to "cherry pick" weaker coaches, because it affects the risk/reward and makes you need more wins per loss to maintain the same CR.

I have not fully decided how to deal with the separation of rankings when the new blackbox system opens up in the C division, and am not yet ready to announce anything about this.
argos_72



Joined: Mar 02, 2007

Post   Posted: Sep 30, 2021 - 14:20 Reply with quote Back to top

Thanks a lot Christer for the super-fast answer!
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