Seppuku
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
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Sep 30, 2004 - 19:57 |
 
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| DropDeadFred wrote: | | actually Seppuku i prefer hamsters |
Noob...of course you do, it's a given. But you still like alternative hobbies when you run out of sellotape 
P.S. I hope everyone noticed the lack of complaining re: face like a chimps arse  |
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Life ain't scary...making a 2+ Dodge with my luck...THAT's scary... |
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sk8bcn
Joined: Apr 13, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 14:29 |
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Only make the safetiest moves and you will not even notice that you made nine six in a row.
That's why people think that much that their unlucky. a 6 on a 2+ or 3+ roll isn't noticed. A one a lot more.
Guess why so much coaches thinks the dice generator generated more 1's than 6's. That's something less noticed on tabletop (where you watch carrefully on your dice). Additionnaly you play so much more games on fumbbl so I think that people feeling unlucky overall aren't completely right. They FEEL unlucky. It depends on what side you take this all.
BUT I must admit one thing: The law of Great Numbers (Loi des grands nombres) says that with a lot of games you will eventually close to à 50/50 luck factor (and do not believe the luck rating on fumbbl, he's a lier). But I heard about some kind of law of the extrems that says if you're lucky you will keep beeing lucky and the same about extrems. And that put some trouble in my beliefs. And I do not talk about something like Murphys Law that stupid thing, no I talk about A Real Statistical Rule (Maths-probabilities and stats). So I don't know. If someone is more experienced than me in the domain he can try to give me an explenation.
nb: nothing philosophical but REAL MATHS and REAL STATS OR PROBAS. |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 15:44 |
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I don't know about the random generator in fumbbl, but think about this:
Probability says:
1- Toss a coin. Head? Then on the next toss you have a higher chance of getting Tails.
2- Toss a coin. Head? Again. Head? Again Head? Then you have much higher a chance of getting Tails.
3- Toss a coin a billion times. Always Head? Then you better bet on Head next time.
1) and 2) follow the normal statistic laws. The 3) states a different thing. It states that if you keep having results that are in contrast with the law of Great Numbers there is a high probability that there's a disturbing factor you are not aware of or that you can't measure. So you have to keep the strange results in mind and assume the law of Great Numbers won't work in that matter.
I am not english so maybe I was unclear. I am not a matemagician ( ) either, so maybe I am stating a huge mistake. But this makes sense to me. |
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Dementor
Joined: Apr 06, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 16:11 |
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| jan_mattys wrote: | Probability says:
1- Toss a coin. Head? Then on the next toss you have a higher chance of getting Tails.
2- Toss a coin. Head? Again. Head? Again Head? Then you have much higher a chance of getting Tails.
1) and 2) follow the normal statistic laws. |
Wrong! The chance of getting Head is (should) always be the same. The outcome of each coin toss is totally independent of each other and is 1/2 = 50% Head. The law of Great Numbers says that in the end (great numbers) you will roll very close to 50% Heads but NOT that the probability of Tails is bigger after you rolled Heads! |
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AlcingRagaholic
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 01, 2004 - 16:42 |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 16:51 |
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| Quote: | | Wrong! The chance of getting Head is (should) always be the same. The outcome of each coin toss is totally independent of each other and is 1/2 = 50% Head. The law of Great Numbers says that in the end (great numbers) you will roll very close to 50% Heads but NOT that the probability of Tails is bigger after you rolled Heads! |
False. The law of Combined Probability says that if you toss a coin ten times there is a curve of probability (Gauss): the highest chance ins 5 heads five tails, the lowest chance is 10 heads 0 tails. Which implies that after tossing nine heads you have two options:
1-toss the coin again and have head
2-toss the coin again and have tail
Case 1 produces 10 heads. Case 2 produces nine heads one tail.
Case 1 is statistically less probable than case two.
So, it's tha same to say that a tail in the tenth toss is more probable. |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 17:27 |
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This is why I stopped my study of astronomy at the undergrad level, instead of pursing a masters or PhD. All that quantum statistical mechanics can drive a man insane!
But from my old high school mathematics I remember: (boy, have we hijacked this thread or what!)
To calculate the probability of a sequence of events, determine the probability of each individual event and multiply. So you have 1/2 chance of getting heads every time you throw. Throw twice, the odds of two heads are 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4, so in a sense you could say after your first head that the chance of you getting heads again is less than tails, because after all, the whole sequence only has a 25% chance of success. But EACH FLIP by itself is still 50% chance either way. It all depends on whether you're looking at a sequence of events, or an individual event... |
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Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 17:30 |
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Well, we were obviously talking about a sequence, since BloodBowl is not a single die roll, but a serie of rolls which can result ina total mess turnover if one of them fails.
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Oct 01, 2004 - 17:32 |
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BTW: the interesting part in my original post was point 3... which no one did notice. 
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whitey
Joined: Sep 19, 2003
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Oct 02, 2004 - 01:38 |
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Nah, Jan_mattys, each toss should have a 50% chance of a head that is independant of the ones before it. The only reason that one head, one tail is more common than 2 heads is that there are two ways of getting it, ie Head then Tail or Tail then Head while only one way to get Head then Head. But if the first toss is a head, then the possibility of getting a tail followed by a head does not exist, so you can only get Head then Head or Head then Tail, which are equally likely. |
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Kommando
Joined: Dec 08, 2003
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Oct 02, 2004 - 01:39 |
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well, all 3 points are obviously wrong since the different rolls don't influence each other, assuming that the probability is 50/50. IN ADVANCE a 50 % average is more likely, but even if you roll head 9 times the tenth one won't automatically be tails (or any more likely). common sense really, the coins have no memory (now quantum stuff, they do have memory |
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JanMattys
Joined: Feb 29, 2004
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Oct 02, 2004 - 01:53 |
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Well, coins maybe have no memory, but I have.
And if I roll 10 ones in a row I will swarm the forums crying "The number generator is not random" a billion times.
Be warned you Nuffle.
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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well speaking only of your game against me:
Setting up 7 undead on the LOS when i am recieving and playing CD -suicidal.
Not standing guys up before attempting 1 die blocks- suicidal.
leaving 3 players on the wrong side of the pitch without moving them for 6 turns when defending - suicidal.
Dodging with a mummy while 3 guys prone and several innactive players unmoved - suicidal.
Dodging with a mummy even without the above - suicidal.
Picking up/moving the ball without any thought to what will happen if the dice rolls go against you - suicidal.
The die may be messing with you, but you sure arn't helping yourself much.
Sad to see you go as you seemd a nice guy, and if blaming the dice makes you feel better then i can only agree it is clearly all their fault.
But you could always try:
Learning from your mistakes.
Spectating better players and learning from them.
Playing other races and finding a style that suits you.
Or not. Either way, good luck. |
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CorporateSlave3
Joined: Feb 07, 2004
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Oct 02, 2004 - 04:53 |
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| Dementor wrote: |
Wrong! The chance of getting Head is (should) always be the same. The outcome of each coin toss is totally independent of each other and is 1/2 = 50% Head. The law of Great Numbers says that in the end (great numbers) you will roll very close to 50% Heads but NOT that the probability of Tails is bigger after you rolled Heads! |
Actually, in physical studies of coin tossing, it was found that Heads had a greater chance of coming up than tails, although only a small one, something like 51%-49%. It was also found that in about 5 out of 100 coin 'flips' the coin appears to flip over and over but actually stays the same side up and merely gyrates around a lot in the air.
Dunno what that has to do with anything, but it's late and I'm bored. |
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