BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Oct 26, 2004 - 16:08 |
 
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| DaBoss wrote: | | [...Are you telling me it should be a common occurance to have high RIPs early on and that "average" can only happen over time? If so how much time is needed to average out? |
A statistically high number of RIPs should be just as common of an occurrence as a statistically low number of RIPs and each result is more heavily weighted when you have less games - therefore a single unlucky game can blow your average after 5 games and would hardly change the percentages after 50.
If there was an exact amount of time over which it evened out, then it wouldn't be random, how would it?
More accurately, over time, the likelihood of evening out increases. Is that better?
It looks like you're just unlucky, simply put. 64 games is not nearly enough to formulate any sort of solid statistical analysis. Think more like thousands or millions (or more). Remember , the closer you get to infinity, the more accurate your results. Unfortunately infinity happens to be really really big... |
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Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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tza
Joined: Aug 25, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 26, 2004 - 16:39 |
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played 3 games with my woodies before tossing 'em..
first match decent game, nothing there. 1x BH suffered.
second game 3x RIP
3'rd match only BH's again.
no SI's, but alot of RIPs, especially after 2'nd match..
Was just the team that came to mind when reading that post heh |
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Arlecchino
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
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Oct 26, 2004 - 17:05 |
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88 (86/52/31 - 26/35/20)
Stats of my 55games necro team. |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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Oct 26, 2004 - 17:27 |
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To get a proper feel, look at teams having played a lot of games and/or had a lot of cas inflicted/suffered. My most experienced human team (av 8, so average) has caused/endured:
106/57/38-104/61/27
over the course of 86 games. That comes out to 53%/28%/19% suffered (just about right on) and causing 54%/32%/14%, againg very close to the statistical average. Granted, it "feels" like I've suffered more RIPs of late, but that's b/c it's happening to players with several skills who've been around for 50 games. That always sticks out in your mind more than losing a rookie after his third game.
But let's check out the ultimate in cas generation, the Deathgerbil's Revenge squad...784/481/264 - 287/173/107 are the cas numbers over 286 games for these bad boys. This comes out to...
51%/32%/17% - 51%/31%/19%
Again, looks pretty statistically good to me. To repeat, once you've caused/suffered close to 100 cas or more you can start to do statistics on a percentage (literally meaning "per 100") basis. Until then, just consider yourself unlucky with that team, doesn't mean the race is cursed for you. My skaven teams suffered huge cas in the first two times I created a team with them, yet my third attempt has out-cas'd their opposition. Just keep plugging away; the truly great teams in fumbbl history didn't get that way their first time out for their coach, but are the second-third-fourth-more renditions of teams, until the right combination of coaching experience with luck combines for a dynamite team. |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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Renno
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
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Oct 26, 2004 - 18:11 |
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| BadMrMojo wrote: | | DaBoss wrote: | | [...Are you telling me it should be a common occurance to have high RIPs early on and that "average" can only happen over time? If so how much time is needed to average out? |
A statistically high number of RIPs should be just as common of an occurrence as a statistically low number of RIPs and each result is more heavily weighted when you have less games - therefore a single unlucky game can blow your average after 5 games and would hardly change the percentages after 50.
If there was an exact amount of time over which it evened out, then it wouldn't be random, how would it?
More accurately, over time, the likelihood of evening out increases. Is that better?
It looks like you're just unlucky, simply put. 64 games is not nearly enough to formulate any sort of solid statistical analysis. Think more like thousands or millions (or more). Remember , the closer you get to infinity, the more accurate your results. Unfortunately infinity happens to be really really big... |
Flip a quarter enough and rather then landing on heads or tails it will eventually land on its side.
This doesn't make it normal.
Anything can happen overtime. Using infinity is stretching don't you think?
I've played more then 400+ games on Fumbbl and I love it but come on now.. I could come in here with 600, 1000, 1200, 1800 games and you'd tell me I havn't played enough and it would average out over time.
Infinity eh? |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 26, 2004 - 19:19 |
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| DaBoss wrote: | ...Flip a quarter enough and rather then landing on heads or tails it will eventually land on its side.
This doesn't make it normal. |
The single incident is abnormal but the string of a huge number of rolls which result in one such incident is normal. Referring only to the one time that it did land on its side is an example of anectdotal evidence.
| Quote: | ...I've played more then 400+ games on Fumbbl ... 600, 1000, 1200, 1800 games ... it would average out over time.
Infinity eh? |
Well, close. It would be more likely to average out and that likelihood would increase the more you played. If you had a large group of coaches with a large number of games each, you'd still probably get a few unlucky souls who consistently defied the odds with bad CAS ratios. You'd have the same probability of having lucky coaches with good CAS ratios. Neither is guaranteed, however. They're just likelihoods, not absolutes (until you get to an infinite number of rolls, which is, of course, impossible).
Claiming that playing 600 games earns you a guaranteed average CAS ratio is patently false. It's the same as saying that a 2+ roll with a reroll means you are guaranteed to make it because the odds are in your favor. Extrapolating that over whatever number of games and rolls that you choose is simply a matter of degrees. The core argument still stands. |
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Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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The_Beard
Joined: Oct 07, 2004
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Oct 26, 2004 - 20:02 |
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when they are ,aking polls in denmark. they use about 800 people. randomly selected from all over the country. that way you get a good estimate of what the hole of denmark would vote. within a 5% margin.
flixes Ambassadors of Light has at this time recived/caused 164/93/39 - 174/153/62 cas.
total 685 cas.
bh=338=49,3%
si=246=35,9%
rip=101=14,7%
now those stats are well within the 5% margin for error. so the cas dice isen't curropt.
now daboss you posted your faction teams had 39bh31si25rip.
total 95 cas
bh=39=41,0%
si=31=32,6%
rip=25=26,3%
now that is fare from within the 5% margin used at 800 colletion. so all this tells you is that your looking at to short a horizont. but as you can see 186 matches seems to be a good benchmark. or rather 685 cas.
edited: fixed some grama. |
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Rimmer
Joined: Aug 19, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 26, 2004 - 20:43 |
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Sigh...
For it to be right (average) you have to take every injury roll in the entire world in account. So of course some teams will have high RIP rate and some will have a low one.
If you run a computer program to randomize numbers 1 thru 6 you will have slight deveations even if you roll some 100'000 "rolls". |
_________________
As always one is always 100% sure about the truth until one learns that it isn´t the truth. Then one is 100% sure that it isn´t the truth. |
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Delta
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 26, 2004 - 21:43 |
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I recently rearranged my computer room. Since I moved the monitor closer to the window I have noticed a large increase in the number of RIPS.
Should I move it back? Is the light affecting the client? Perhaps if I close the curtains? |
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Cain is for Charlie and Delta is for Cain |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 26, 2004 - 21:52 |
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Well:
- The light is simply electro-magnetic radiation.
- It will heat up the objects it comes in contact with by transferring its momentum into said object.
- Heating an object up means making its subatomic particles vibrate faster.
- Your computer's system clock is basically a crystal that vibrates.
- By heating that crystal, you're changing the way its subatomic components vibrate and therefore changing the system clock.
- The system clock is used in calculating the seed for the PRNG.
- Therefore the arrangement of your room and your feng shui determines your die rolls!
Always remember: For good luck, put your computer along the north wall and hang something red on the south wall to focus chi into good rolls! |
_________________
Ta-Ouch! of BloodBowl
Condensed Guide for Newbies |
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AFK_Eagle
Joined: Mar 12, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 27, 2004 - 00:24 |
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Let's see...north wall, got it...red south, got it...focus chi...CHI??? I thought it was SHE!!! No wonder the odds haven't been going well of late...  |
_________________
Listen to Eagle! Eagle is good, Eagle is wise!
Founder of the E.L.F.--These elves will play anybody! |
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BadMrMojo
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Oct 27, 2004 - 03:44 |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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There are currently a total of 1,048,935 casualties reported in all matches. These are distributed as follows:
BH: 526,022 (50.15%)
SI: 349,477 (33.32%)
RIP: 173,436 RIP (16.53%)
Given the proximity to the theoretical 50%, 33.33% and 16.67% I really don't see a reason to worry about the randomizer... Regardless of the effects that chi, feng shui and/or karma has on the rolls  |
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SkiJunkie
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2004 - 07:37 |
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tassel
Joined: May 04, 2004
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| Posted:
Oct 28, 2004 - 08:25 |
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My Orcs have funny stats with cas: (17/6/10 - 16/1/5)
I mean, who likes the niggles anyway? BH or RIP I always say. |
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