Frankenstein
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 18:51 |
 
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The current STR-formula has pushed me on the top of fumbbl. Quite amusing, since I don't care much about coach ranking (though that reputation is kinda cool, especially if I compare my actually rather wanting skills with that of far superior players like evo and christer).
Especially the part of the STR-formula which inappropriately considers the actual number of players is utter crap from my experience (not buying new players pays off, they aren't worth additional 25 STR, Lineelves aren't even worth the ordinary 7 STR).
I'd suggest a K.I.S.S. (keep it straight and simple) approach:
Basically, stick with the ordinary LRB-TR, but:
- do not count cash.
- count RRs at their full price, half the value of AC's and CL's.
- do not count mng-players.
- devalue niggling players by 10% for each niggle (after all there is a reason if they are not retired, probably since they are stronger than ordinary players).
- ignore AG, STR, MA, AV decreases.
This formula would seem fair and simple to me. And there would be no need for secrecy about the formula.
Anyhow: Do not take the number of actual players into account. That's entirly detached from reality. You can believe me as far as this point is concerned, since this is the only reason why I lead the league in coach-ranking. I accidentally exploited this achilles heel of the STR-formula. |
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Azurus
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 19:29 |
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I don't think the formula needs changing quite that much, but you're right, there shouldn't be minuses on str if you have less than 11 players. Since the current formula seems to be based on the players positions and skills, a 10 (or less) man team will already have a lower str.
I just got my first realatively high tr (190-some) team, and the str system means very little any more. I've had 7-8 players in some of my recent games, and gooten surprisingly easy victories. The reason for this is that my Dark Elves with 10 healthy, experienced players, have the same str as a chaos team with 14 players, but which has played only half as many games. The elves will win such a game nine times out of ten. Presumably this is the sort of experience Mirascael has had with his wood elves (it gets even worse when one-turners enter the picture).
The str system is fine for new-ish teams, but falls apart later on. It does need a bit of tweaking.
Can't agree with not counting -MA/ST/AG/AV though, it can ruin a player who you sometimes can't afford to retire. I think you should devalue a player by 10% for this too. (it seems to work on a straight number of points knocked off right now.
Anyway, Mirascael's main point stands, there should be no modifications to str based upon the number of players available, this will sort itself out through the player's own values. |
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Barash
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 20:48 |
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I fully agree with Mirascael, else only very experianced elf teams will dominate the whole league... if you are intrested in the coach ranking that is.. |
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Barash |
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Frankenstein
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 21:46 |
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| Azurus wrote: | | Can't agree with not counting -MA/ST/AG/AV though, it can ruin a player who you sometimes can't afford to retire. I think you should devalue a player by 10% for this too. (it seems to work on a straight number of points knocked off right now. |
The reasoning is that some players don't suffer from such decreases at all (e.g. Mummy or Saurus with AG-1 has no effect whereas it means an auto-retirement on a Wardancer or Catcher) and MA-1 or AV-1 is often a minor issue (or STR-1 on a one-turner). To create a formula which takes into account all these aspects would be far too complicated, therefore I'd neglect these decreases entirely. And it would be really unfair to devalue a high-end mummy for an AG-decrease. |
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Mr-Klipp
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 22:41 |
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Take a look at this pageAbout the above, a formula that takes all of that into account has already been created. Quite some time ago, and the formula being used is a variation on that. As for the accuracy, the STR system is supposed to show one thing and one thing only. How likely you are to win the next match. On average, the stats show that it is doing that job very well. Take a look at this page:
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats&op=rankings
As for modifiers for certain numbers of players, this may need to be adjusted, but there is sound reasoning behind it. Basically, if you are unable to field 11 players and the opponent is, ever with tr otherwise being equal, you will most likely be at a disadvantage. Sure, you might have great elves who can run around and score with ease with few players. But, the fact that you have fewer players will make it easier for the opponent to score, as well as make it easier for them to gang up on your players to remove more and gain an even greater advantage. I honestly don't see how you can fail to see the game value of having enough players to feild a full 11. |
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Frankenstein
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 21, 2003 - 23:17 |
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| Mr-Klipp wrote: | Take a look at this pageAbout the above, a formula that takes all of that into account has already been created. Quite some time ago, and the formula being used is a variation on that. As for the accuracy, the STR system is supposed to show one thing and one thing only. How likely you are to win the next match. On average, the stats show that it is doing that job very well. Take a look at this page:
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=stats&op=rankings |
1 Mirascael 202.89
2 Ruthless 181.96
3 Malthor 179.74
The incredible lead of mine is by no means justified and doesn't correlate with my coaching skills at all. Thus, something must indeed be very wrong with the current STR-formula.
| Quote: | | As for modifiers for certain numbers of players, this may need to be adjusted, but there is sound reasoning behind it. Basically, if you are unable to field 11 players and the opponent is, ever with tr otherwise being equal, you will most likely be at a disadvantage. Sure, you might have great elves who can run around and score with ease with few players. But, the fact that you have fewer players will make it easier for the opponent to score, as well as make it easier for them to gang up on your players to remove more and gain an even greater advantage. I honestly don't see how you can fail to see the game value of having enough players to feild a full 11. |
Each single player you acquire has already a proper value. If one new lineelf for my Woodies raises the STR of the Ashenvale Protectors by 25% reality has simply been abandoned. As I said, the 70k=7STR is already more than he is worth and I will simply not acquire more players as long as this formula is kept such as it is. If you really believe that one skillless Linelf makes any difference at all, I'd suggest you try such a team as mine. You'll be amazed how worthless such a dude is. Even the raise of 7 STR isn't worth it. I honestly don't see how you can fail to acknowledge evo's and my experience in this matter! 
Apart from that, most of the players know that the formula is broken and I only get (and look for) opponents which have a STR about 50-100% higher than the Protectors' STR. Yet, they still manage to win more than 50% of those games. |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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I'm sure you noticed I changed the strength system a bit to target this problem.
The ashenvale protectors which is the team which seems to be the one in question here is now strength 147.
Regarding the effect of playing with low number of players... You have to realize that the strength formula is something that is applied to all types of teams. As such, it needs to be an "average". While an 8th player might not do much of a difference on a wood elf team, it's a completely different matter on a chaos team for instance. So, the strength system will have to come up with a decent approximation.
I am always open to listen to what people say regarding the strength system and will tweak it if I agree on the critisism and am able to find a way to implement it without breaking things too much. Some of the weights that are in use in the strength system are pretty much my own guesses. I simply didn't think people would happily continue playing with a 7 player team which is why the strength effects of this were off.
Anyhow.. Play with the new system for a while and let me know how it works.
-- Christer |
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Zhluhur
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 22, 2003 - 10:19 |
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Wow cool... is this page accessable on a normal way? I never saw it before! I realy love statictis.  |
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Mr-Klipp
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 22, 2003 - 10:37 |
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Click the stats link in the red bar near the top of the page. All kinds of great data there. |
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The Finishing Touch |
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Zhluhur
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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May 22, 2003 - 14:04 |
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I just found it... thx... I must have had tomatoes on my eyes |
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yenlowan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 24, 2003 - 07:44 |
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hi
the other day i played a khemri team with similar str rating as me
on 2 of his mummies alone he had more spp than my entire team. yet his STR rating was only 140ish. his LRB TR was 211
he had no players niggling and only 1 player with negative stats and only 2 blank skeletons
the mummies each had 50+spp and only one had 22ish
my team was rotters with 2 niggling players (blank beast of nurgle , blank beastman) missing the game
i had 2 blank fresh beast man and only 1 rotter had any skills the rest being blank gimps with 2 - 4 spp each
how is it possible that my relatively fresh rotter team with 14 players , 2 of which were MNG niggling players be anywhere close to the same str rating as this super veteran 13 man team.
and he had 4 rerolls to my 2
how is this possible
the only way i can see how is that SPPs are being severely undervalued in this calculation and MNG players are not contributing enough of a negative mod |
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Mr-Klipp
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 24, 2003 - 08:26 |
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The value of MNG players is completly removed from STR, as they are completly left out of the game. Where there any stat reducing injuries on the other team? |
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Gitzbang
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 24, 2003 - 10:26 |
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Khemri profit a lot from the STR-Formula as it stands. The low Agility will keep their Strengths down, even if the team itself is tough and hard hitting. |
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Christer
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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I have said this several times before...
Strength isn't a measure of how much damage a team can do. It's a measure of if the team can win or not.
Winning, as you surely know, involve making touchdowns. Khemri with their ag 2 have a difficult time handling the ball. Also, their low movement makes it even harder to win.
Yes, they have a low strength value, but in my opinion they should.
-- Christer |
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yenlowan
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 24, 2003 - 18:04 |
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how can you say they cant win
3 of his mummies had piling on
meaning up to 3 successful blocks a turn are guaranteed to break armour
assuming they block every other turn due to the piling on , and only half of those dice are successful thats still 11 players eating dirt or worse. and tell me what team cannot win if 11 or their opponents players are incapacitated?
only elves can feasibly expect to be beyond arms reach of these teams and even then not totally without risk
wouldnt you say SPP (in the form of skills) contributes hell of a lot more to the outcome than any raw stat? an AG 2 player with sure hands has about equal the chance of picking up the ball as a AG 3
if AG is the main concern of the str rating then so what does the rating tell us? in theory high AG teams are more likely to win. absolutely nothing in practice. elves may have a collective AG of 64+ but that means nothing when khemri cage the ball on their drive.
even if you manage to hold the ball and run away from them till the absolute last minute on their drives you are gonna get absolutely punished
if you want to make AG a concern then fine but you shouldnt undervalue stats like STR because while it doesnt contribute to ball handling directly it does contribute alot to the game |
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Gnomes are trash
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