Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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 Posted:
Apr 28, 2023 - 15:41 |
 
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https://fumbbl.com/p/rosterstats this page shows overall winrate down the right hand column, and it's colour coded. so just use that?
GREEN - 60%+ Amazons, Underworld
LIGHT GREEN - 55-60% Undead, Orcs
YELLOW - 45-55% Skaven, Snotlings, Dwarf, Humans, Chaos Dwarf, Khemri, Dark Elves, Norse, Necro, Lizards, High Elves, Elven Union, Wood Elves, OWA
ORANGE - 40-45% Chaos, Imp Nobs, Black Orcs, Nurgle, Renegades, Halflings, Khorne
RED - 40%- Ogres, Goblins, Vamps |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Apr 28, 2023 - 15:45 |
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hmm.. is there a different colour than the light green? that's mostly unreadable for me. but i like the others
ok editted colours in. let me know your thoughts
also, you'll notice i'm not using the overall win rate from that page. i'm using how good teams are against the expected good teams to determine the tiers.
noticeably, OWA are down below chaos - they somehow play an absurd percentage of games against weaker teams, and have an artificially inflated overall win rate
but in general, these tiers are what you can 'expect' to achieve, if you join a league or something where everyone is expected to strive to win and chooses their roster accordingly, instead of throwing you into an open league where you might reasonably expect to play all races in some significant fashion |
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Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
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Apr 28, 2023 - 16:53 |
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Yea the light green sucks but I colour matched to the roster stats page
Excluding some data will skew the results, and I’m not sure I understand the reasons for doing it
Similarly, if you think OWA data is not right, and want to correct that, any method of correcting will also skew the results
There’s no non-artificial way of fixing that, it’s always gonna have flaws
So do you instead need to accept that there just isn’t enough quantity of data for it to level out yet? |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Apr 28, 2023 - 17:12 |
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Sure, but I'm not excluding data.
I'm refining it to make it more relevant to league play.
And while OWA is the most impacted,I'm specifically not targeting them, I'm doing the same thing for all rosters. Nor am I doing it because I think the OWA result is wrong in overall wins, im doing it because I dont think overall wins are relevant to league play.
I only highlighted OWA because they're the biggest change as a result of that refinement. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Jul 27, 2023 - 14:00 |
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Updated July 27 2023.
Skaven, High Elf, OWA, and Nobility all moved up an half tier.
There are now
4 teams in tier 0/0.5
10 teams in tier 1/1.5
10 teams in tier 2/2.5
4 teams in tier 3/3.5
Black orcs are trying very hard to drop to tier 3, but havent succeeded yet. (They are the current team closest to changing an half tier) |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Jul 27, 2023 - 19:47 |
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Are you sure that OWA bump isn't just noise? I have a hard time imagining them in green. |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Jul 27, 2023 - 20:02 |
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My take.
Obviously problematic: Amazons, Underworld.
Conditionally problematic: Snotling.
Upper end of fine: Undead, Orcs, Skaven, Chaos Dwarf.
Fine: Dwarf, Human, Khemri, Dark Elf, High Elf, Necromantic, Norse.
Conditionally fine: Elven Union, Lizards, Chaos Chosen.
Viable: OWA, Wood Elves, ImpNobs, Khorne, Renegades.
Conditionally viable: Nurgle, Halflings.
Bad: Black Orcs (least bad), Vampires (next least), Ogres, Goblins. |
_________________
Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Jul 27, 2023 - 21:00 |
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OWA are still tier 2, just not 2.5 any more.
This isn't my take, as I'd shift several of these around, this is based on stats against the teams with a 47-54% (ie, competetive) teams. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Oct 22, 2023 - 04:30 |
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I'll be updating this to reflect the vampire changes when it appears that the new roster has properly changed the win rates of the team. Unless anyone thinks earlier is better, it will probably be in the new year. |
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Carthage
Joined: Mar 18, 2021
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Oct 22, 2023 - 05:41 |
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The 100% are not bad any more. Probably in 2 or 2.5 at low TV and climbs from there. Looking forward to seeing if the math justifies my opinion |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Dec 20, 2023 - 18:09 |
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updated as of december 20 2023
4 teams tier 0/0.5
10 teams tier 1/1.5
11 teams tier 2/2.5
3 teams tier 3.5 (NO teams tier 3) |
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NerdBird
Joined: Apr 08, 2014
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Dec 20, 2023 - 18:22 |
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| Nelphine wrote: | updated as of december 20 2023
4 teams tier 0/0.5
10 teams tier 1/1.5
11 teams tier 2/2.5
3 teams tier 3.5 (NO teams tier 3) |
Is there anywhere that lists the number of active teams in each tier and the amount of games played for each tier? It seems like the amount of undead/necro/tomb kings is off the charts. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Dec 20, 2023 - 18:29 |
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Christer would have that information somewhere |
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NerdBird
Joined: Apr 08, 2014
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Dec 20, 2023 - 19:13 |
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| Nelphine wrote: | | Christer would have that information somewhere |
I am just wondering how the racial mix affects win percentages? Not just in the head to head but the following games after suffering losses or not. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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Dec 20, 2023 - 19:30 |
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broadly, for most teams, that shouldn't significantly impact the stats. there's some concern it impacts elves, but i haven't seen clear examples of that being a systemic problem yet. It's definitely a concern for a given TEAM, but not for all teams of a given ROSTER.
in other words, while one particular coach can get shattered, its rare enough that the roster's performance itself doesn't seem to be significantly impacted beyond what is shown in these stats. |
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