BillBrasky
Joined: Feb 15, 2005
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 Posted:
Nov 02, 2014 - 22:05 |
 
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That's really not fine with changes in box.
The scheduler makes the box... |
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Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
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| Posted:
Nov 02, 2014 - 22:10 |
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| Calcium wrote: | | WHAT? Do you deliberately avoid the word that is cunningly positioned before 'BOWL' ??? Balle2000, you need to get a serious grip (or go play Madden on the Xbox/PS) |
Although your reply-before-understanding is somewhat amusing, and in case it isn't clear for anyone reading: the must-clawpomb focus in box causes tunnel-vision leading coaches to forget that CAS and KOs are just a means towards an end: winning by touchdowns. |
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Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
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Nov 02, 2014 - 22:15 |
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| DukeTyrion wrote: | | What I am not fine with is the changes to the scheduler to make Chaos, Nurgle and CD's primarily play each other |
Can you please stop with this misleading non-sense? The current proposal is to increase the suitability rating for any over-represented races. This is so people don't have to play the same race over and over and over. It's not race specific. Christer has stated this several times. |
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JimmyFantastic
Joined: Feb 06, 2007
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Nov 02, 2014 - 22:18 |
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It's never not gonna be those three.
Although you may have pulled the wool over Christer's eyes, I see what your game is. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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Nov 02, 2014 - 22:35 |
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Can we get the stats on what percentage of games are played at a high TV gap and/or at low suitability? Really, that question needs to be answered before going on. Are we looking at a problem that really needs to be addressed? If we're getting a reasonably large percentage of low-suitability or high-∆TV matches now, maybe a fix is in order, and if we're not, maybe it's not. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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Nov 03, 2014 - 00:17 |
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I am seeing
total games:3018
Over 250TV difference: 155 5.1% Big team wins: 81 Small team wins: 47
Over 350TV difference: 71 2.4% Big team wins: 36 Small team wins: 22
In ranked it's
total games:5923
Over 250TV difference: 402 6.8% Big team wins: 225 Small team wins: 109
Over 350TV difference: 212 3.6% Big team wins: 125 Small team wins: 54
Though that includes all the young team/low TV matches. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2014 - 00:21 |
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| Balle2000 wrote: | | DukeTyrion wrote: | | What I am not fine with is the changes to the scheduler to make Chaos, Nurgle and CD's primarily play each other |
Can you please stop with this misleading non-sense? The current proposal is to increase the suitability rating for any over-represented races. This is so people don't have to play the same race over and over and over. It's not race specific. Christer has stated this several times. |
As it stands that is exactly what it means. 
Could be bad news for humans though. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2014 - 00:32 |
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| BillBrasky wrote: |
Any change is strongly advised against from my stand-point. |
You seem to be under the impression my drunk friend that changes means getting rid of the box or merging the box.
Let me assure you that is not the case.
If fact I would be so bold to say that if any changes did happen on the scheduler that you would not even feel its impact at all.
SO
Follow me to the next bar and I will buy you a few rounds as these rabble rousers on this thread hash it out. In the morning once you shake off the hang over nothing will have changed.
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xnoelx
Joined: Jun 05, 2012
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Nov 03, 2014 - 00:34 |
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So, while the decision about what numbers are acceptable is obviously down to big C, that seems like a) a very reasonable level of TV gap games. Only 1 in 20 over 250 TV. And, more importantly, b) a very respectable win rate for underdogs. 37%, increasing to 39% as the gap widens. By my reckoning (assuming a linear relationship, rather than any kind of curve), if we made all games have a 900 TV difference, that would increase to 50%, and B would be perfect. Right?
Edit: Those percentages were with draws ignored. With draws, at 250+ TV, the percentages for higher TV win/draw/lower TV win are 52/18/30%.
And at 350+ TV, 51/18/31%. Still an improvement as the TV gap increases. |
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PainState
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
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Nov 03, 2014 - 00:41 |
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| JimmyFantastic wrote: | | I agree that the scheduler is way to hard on old rebuilding teams, very hard to get a fair matchup. At least woodies have some kind of a shot with those tv differences but it's really disheartening for normal teams. |
All the boxes issues would go away if it could manage to get 6 or 8 or 10 coaches activating.
Iam not saying that changing the scheduler is a bad thing. What Iam saying is that a change is not needed IF you get more coaches activating.
So how is that accomplished, NO CLUE.
Thus this discussion seems to rotate around keeping coaches who play in the box content to not leave the Div for good.
Since the merge of Box to Ranked is off the table. I quess that means merging Ranked into Box is off the table.
Where are those elusive 2-4 more coaches on avg. per activation hiding? |
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uuni
Joined: Mar 12, 2010
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Nov 03, 2014 - 00:43 |
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| JackassRampant wrote: | | Can we get the stats on what percentage of games are played at a high TV gap and/or at low suitability? Really, that question needs to be answered before going on. Are we looking at a problem that really needs to be addressed? If we're getting a reasonably large percentage of low-suitability or high-∆TV matches now, maybe a fix is in order, and if we're not, maybe it's not. |
Per Koadah's stats, less than 10% of matches in Blackbox include a team with TV of at least 1800k. (5024 / 51278). Really few people seem to play at high TV and participate in things like Box Big games.
Over half (52%) of the games in Blackbox are played at most tv 1400k. Median team on Blackbox plays 5 games in their career. Less than 24% of teams play more than 15 games during their career.
More durable teams may of course play more games. By approximating the number of games of 16+game teams to be their median of 28, one would get an estimate of number of matches of 16+ pool to be about (28-15)*6000 = 78000. This would imply that BillBrasky's WMD's make about 3% of all 16+ games.
I guess it is about 1:30 to have WMD's your 16+ opponent then, just by their sheer number of games. Personally, I think it is excellent courtesy for BillBrasky to offer such an amount of games to us. There is not a match for you if there is no opponent to play the match with.
There are about 100 Blackbox games per day, about 1 game per every draw. I would venture a guess that less than 60 persons play half of the matches in the Blackbox, maybe even less than 40 persons.
To recap on "If we're getting a reasonably large percentage of...", I think we are not getting a large percentage of such games. |
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uuni
Joined: Mar 12, 2010
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2014 - 00:48 |
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| koadah wrote: | I am seeing
total games:3018
Over 250TV difference: 155 5.1% Big team wins: 81 Small team wins: 47
Over 350TV difference: 71 2.4% Big team wins: 36 Small team wins: 22
In ranked it's
total games:5923
Over 250TV difference: 402 6.8% Big team wins: 225 Small team wins: 109
Over 350TV difference: 212 3.6% Big team wins: 125 Small team wins: 54
Though that includes all the young team/low TV matches. |
Nice data! If you happen to include such filter to your stat page, that is excellent! Thank you for your stats! |
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Balle2000
Joined: Sep 25, 2008
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Nov 03, 2014 - 00:53 |
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| koadah wrote: | As it stands that is exactly what it means.
Could be bad news for humans though. |
How is playing humans bad news for humans? If anything the HLP might become even more interesting with more head-to-heads.
And the scheduler tweak is proposed exactly so to change this "eternal unchangeable fact of the blackbox 3 primordial races", so the initial remark was off point. |
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Dunenzed
Joined: Oct 28, 2011
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2014 - 00:59 |
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| Balle2000 wrote: | | koadah wrote: | As it stands that is exactly what it means.
Could be bad news for humans though. |
How is playing humans bad news for humans? If anything the HLP might become even more interesting with more head-to-heads.
And the scheduler tweak is proposed exactly so to change this "eternal unchangeable fact of the blackbox 3 primordial races", so the initial remark was off point. |
Well, if the top three have a positive matching bias, humans could also end up playing the other 2 most popular races more - so if these are nurgle and chaos, then humans get more of those games as well.
Great stats koadah! |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 03, 2014 - 01:02 |
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| Balle2000 wrote: | | koadah wrote: | As it stands that is exactly what it means.
Could be bad news for humans though. |
How is playing humans bad news for humans? If anything the HLP might become even more interesting with more head-to-heads.
And the scheduler tweak is proposed exactly so to change this "eternal unchangeable fact of the blackbox 3 primordial races", so the initial remark was off point. |
Maybe I'm misunderstanding it. If it is not hardcoded to the evil 3 then humans as one of the most played races would get more games vs the other most played races.
Or is it only the top 3? |
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