Thagrot_Stunticrusha
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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 Posted:
Jun 03, 2003 - 07:28 |
 
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An observation I have made, and a very frustrating one at that. In the last two games I played, four times in a row (3 times in the first game and 1 time in the second) when I tried using a Team Re-Roll to re-roll the result of the block dice I got exactly the same result. I mean exactly as in the exact same order. We are talking here on all four occasions having three block dice and on all four occassions a re-roll not changing the outcome. Also in that second game my opponent rolled double skulls, used a re-roll and got double skulls again. Not so unlikely on its own perhaps, but taken with my re-rolls something to consider.
The laws of probability should make such an occurance as mine pretty well impossible (or at least so improbable as to almost never occur). I'd like to know if anyone else has seen this occur and whether it could potentially be a bug. I'd also like to know how the dice rolls are randomised within the software as there are inherent problems in my mind with computers producing true randomisation. |
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BunnyPuncher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 07:52 |
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This a non-scientific observation, but yes you do tend to re-roll double skulls / single skulls damn near every time. Could be just my perception, and i think it is, but it certainly feels that way. |
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Janzki
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 08:55 |
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This has been discussed before. IMHO, your skulls are just bad luck.
What comes to generating random numbers, try searching an earlier thread here.
-Janzki |
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Covertfun
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 09:11 |
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chance of rolling double skulls twice in a row is
1:1296
.... |
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EvolveToAnarchism
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 09:20 |
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| Covertfun wrote: | chance of rolling double skulls twice in a row is
1:1296
.... |
Chance of you remembering those 1295 times you didn't roll double skulls twice in a row= 0%.
As Always,
Evolve To Anarchism
Stunty A.N.A.R.C.H.I.S.T. |
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Thagrot_Stunticrusha
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 09:23 |
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There is no such thing as luck - there is merely the law of probability.
The chance of rolling three double skulls (or any combination of skull and both down results as they are both a 1 in 6 chance) is 0.46% - less than half a percent. Now what is the chance that you will roll the EXACT same result - exactly the same order - with a Re-Roll? Should be 0.002% by my calculations. Now what is the chance that four times in a row you'll get exactly the same improbable result? Sorry but it just doesn't add up. |
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Samuli
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 10:46 |
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Just tested that both standalone and though proxy. Both times the rerolls worked. Client version was 5.8. |
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Sinner
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 11:51 |
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It happened to me too that i rerolled a double skull into a double skull, but then it doesn´t happen very often.
As a medi skilled coach i do about 5 double dice blocks a turn in about 12 rounds a game, which makes 60 blocks. My opponents do the same, so we have about 120 double dice blocks a game (+-20). So it will happen every 10th game that you or your opponent rerolls a double skull into the same result. And for every game you don´t have those rerolled double skulls the probability rises.
It´s the same with 2+ dodges elves so often fail... nobody complains about not failing those rolls about 20 times in a row, but when they fail they curse their luck. You often tend to forget the rolls that worked, because a double skull has "only" a chance of 1/36, but it does happen and when it happens once it can happen twice 
Another point is that even the block dice are rolled as numbers, so with your probability calculation you have to take picking up, throwing, catching, dodging, etc. into account too... or you would only view a small part of the dice universe
Cheers |
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Sinner
Darkie's Dreams - successfully cherrypicking any race, any coach, any rating, any number of DP since 20/09/2003 ... and still winning! |
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shabs
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 12:31 |
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at the end of the day, it is purely random. As someone said, you dont usually remeber all the previous successes, but when failure happens, you notice...its a common human mind thing...take this...ok.depends on where you are in the world as to whether this will work..but...
has anyone seen the new RAV 4 by toyota??..sucks..they should have kept the old shape....
now, what should happen now, is that by mentioning the new rav 4, you will all start to notice them more..its not because there are more about, its just because you have become sort of actively aware about it, and actively seek it out.
Now, some days however..my luck is just total ass munching crap...and i get 1's at the start of every round...but thats just pure random luck...some days i have hideous luck, some days i have AMAZING luck...its just dice...just dice with it
Shabs |
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SkiJunkie
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 17:13 |
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A few patches ago I added the number output to the dice roll in the messages window (and the log). Looks something like this "- 5 - 1 -". These are the numbers coming straight off the random number generator. If these numbers match what is in the dice display then there is no bug. It is just the "luck" of the random number generator.
So many people bring this up but so few bother to go through their log file and see, is it a bug...or is it just the way the numbers are coming off the random generator?
Info on the random number generator in java that is used in jbb.
The class uses a 48-bit seed, which is modified using a linear congruential formula. (See Donald Knuth, The Art of Computer Programming, Volume 2, Section 3.2.1.)
Computer generated "random" number are not perfect, but from what I've read this is about as close as you can get. |
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--SkiJunkie
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Mirror - http://javabbowl.no-ip.org
Mirror - http://home.austin.rr.com/javabbowl |
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peikko
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 20:27 |
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It aint bad luck when you get double skulls, its just Nuffle playing with you!
Oh, one thing I would like to know if d6 random is balanced as it is that with normal dices there is more probablity to roll 6 than 1? |
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gophur
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 20:40 |
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| Sinner wrote: | As a medi skilled coach i do about 5 double dice blocks a turn in about 12 rounds a game, which makes 60 blocks. My opponents do the same, so we have about 120 double dice blocks a game (+-20). So it will happen every 10th game that you or your opponent rerolls a double skull into the same result. And for every game you don´t have those rerolled double skulls the probability rises.
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actually the probability that you will quad skull remains the same no matter how many times you try. Think of it like this. Flip a coin and 50% heads and 50% tails.
it comes up heads.
flip it again and it is still 50% either way and so on. Now where probability of one or the other comes into play is that I will get a heads result atleast once in these next 10 flips. There you will have a much greater chance than 50% because you are looking at a set of random events where each single flip no matter the previous result will still only be 50%.
wheeee |
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gophur
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 20:41 |
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| peikko wrote: | It aint bad luck when you get double skulls, its just Nuffle playing with you!
Oh, one thing I would like to know if d6 random is balanced as it is that with normal dices there is more probablity to roll 6 than 1? |
no it is a 1 in 6 chance every time you roll no matter how many times you roll...you still have a 1 in 6 chance |
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Trappy
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 20:52 |
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| Quote: |
no it is a 1 in 6 chance every time you roll no matter how many times you roll...you still have a 1 in 6 chance
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On a single d6 there is more chance of getting a 6 than a one. The 6 side has five more holes in it making it considerably lighter, therefore the 1 side has more chance of landing down as it is heavier ;oD
p.s. I'm taking the piss! (just in case). |
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BunnyPuncher
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
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Jun 03, 2003 - 20:57 |
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Like I said in my post.. it's perception... and the wonderful thing about statistics is.. while they estimate probabilty.. they do not impact what happens. What happened in your first roll has nil impact on what yer reroll will be. And the other thing about stats is you cant analyze a small number of events.
With that in mind, I would please ask my players to stop rolling bones everytime they step out of tackle zones  |
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