Primarch
Joined: Dec 14, 2003
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 Posted:
May 18, 2024 - 03:25 |
 
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I know getting diced is a thing in Blood Bowl, lol. Having said that, one of you mathmagicians, what are the odds of 3 straight Blitzes for your opponent on the kickoff table? I'm just curious. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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May 18, 2024 - 03:52 |
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1/1728. 3 chances to roll a 10 on 2d6, out of 36, is 1 in 12. Cube that, 1 in 1728. |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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Nelphine
Joined: Apr 01, 2011
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May 18, 2024 - 05:04 |
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which means it happens a little less than once a week  |
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Carthage
Joined: Mar 18, 2021
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May 18, 2024 - 06:21 |
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Technically the odds that it happened to you is 100% since it happened  |
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MerryZ
Joined: Nov 28, 2005
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May 18, 2024 - 08:41 |
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Ive had 4 blitzes in one game.
Rats were really happy. |
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Kaptain Awasoam, Dicer of All Men and Women and Children and Puppies. |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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May 18, 2024 - 09:49 |
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dementor42
Joined: Oct 27, 2017
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May 18, 2024 - 09:59 |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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May 18, 2024 - 10:19 |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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May 18, 2024 - 10:55 |
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If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way. |
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tussock
Joined: May 29, 2011
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May 18, 2024 - 10:59 |
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If they score from the blitz!, they get another blitz!, score from that for the 3rd.
Also it's really only 1 in 144, as the first one is 100% gunna happen at some point.
Every gross of blitz! kickoffs is a triple, if they happen early enough to get the other two. |
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Primarch
Joined: Dec 14, 2003
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May 18, 2024 - 14:44 |
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| Carthage wrote: | | Technically the odds that it happened to you is 100% since it happened |
Lol! True I guess! |
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Primarch
Joined: Dec 14, 2003
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May 18, 2024 - 14:49 |
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| MattDakka wrote: | | If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way. |
While in general I understand this concept.
I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.
He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.
I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered. |
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JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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May 18, 2024 - 15:16 |
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| Primarch wrote: | | MattDakka wrote: | | If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way. |
While in general I understand this concept.
I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.
He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.
I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered. |
Oh, yeah, no worries. It's good that the game Nuffle decided you were definitely going to lose was one you were probably going to lose anyway. Laugh it off and count your blessings. |
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Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
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Primarch
Joined: Dec 14, 2003
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May 18, 2024 - 15:25 |
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| JackassRampant wrote: | | Primarch wrote: | | MattDakka wrote: | | If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way. |
While in general I understand this concept.
I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.
He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.
He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.
I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered. |
Oh, yeah, no worries. It's good that the game Nuffle decided you were definitely going to lose was one you were probably going to lose anyway. Laugh it off and count your blessings. |
Yep, that's about how I figured it. What's even funnier, is that after the 2nd blitz, when he went to kickoff for the 3rd straight time, I literally said in the chat, "what are the odds of a 3rd straight blitz?" or something similar. Lol! |
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RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
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May 18, 2024 - 19:25 |
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you cannot receive the ball in this way vs DE with stunty team is a pre-suicide
the SFplayers (starplayer and PumpVagon) should be put in the corridors closer to center, then 2 other snots to the external part of the corridor (red circles) and the 2 swarm (light blue circle) where the ball appears (or one in front the other)
If Blitz! arrive (9% probability on the kick off table) he will not try "all-in" if you set up in protection mode and probably could not easily pass . If blitz! doesn't arrive you have possibility to group (blitzing with the pump vagon maybe)
Probability of a single Blitz! event in kick off table is 9%. If you receive 4 times the probability to suffer at least one Blitz! is closer to 25% and it is sufficient to get one successful Blitz! to lose the game- especially when you play Snots vs fast teams as if things start going bad there is the snow ball effect ... and game is lost
I would not focus on the probability to had 3 times Blitz! in 4 kick off (which is i think below 1% i think) but the probability to get ONE blitz! in one kick off which is 9% and is not terrible low... every 5-6 kick off can happen.
Than losing a game 4-0 3-0 2-0 does not change anything except your opponent gained an avalance of Spps
however don't be discouraged 25% of this game is decided at the dice (which is a lot) but you should not try to win by hoping for the dice and OVER ALL don't focus on the fact you lose because the dice.
Then of course everybody can be diced, but the theory of the big numbers say that in average dice are always fair: so very likely somewhere in your future next games you will be very lucky in the kick off table!:
so it's time to dare!
ciao! And good luck! |
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To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac |
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