PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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1: People WAY smarter than me at maths, and that have sacrificed much social credit and life opportunities for that knowledge, say the RNG is fine, better than fine in fact, and i trust them. Maths is all these people have, and if they are cool with the RNG as laid out by Christer extensively, and involving all sorts of exotic words that look real and probably are, then I am too. Like Wifi and women, i have to take a lot on trust and just believe.
2: As long as you and I use the same RNG, who cares?
3: We remember the bad stuff. That's humans. Its to stop us eating bad things and touching bad things, and helped us spread our genes. (or God made us that way, she just wanted to, ymmv)
4: You are not as good at BB as you think you are, almost no one is. We often look for reasons outside of us. Its not her, its you. Wash more, and pay her compliments.
5: You are not as good at probabilities as you think you are. Im 110% sure of this one. Things we think of as unlikely are often far more likely than we think they are. And when you add large sample sizes, unlikely becomes inevitable.
6: You cheat. More than likely. A recent study showed: one in ten Brits searching 'How to cheat in Monopoly' (it's a listicle, i'm not citing it in a link,but could) And don't get me started on RL BB and how people roll their dice, let people have do overs, change their plans, unroll dice and just blatant cheat. You might even cheat unknowingly, by doing 'that special thing' or rolling 'the lucky way' that maybe has gained you a 2% in not rerolling skulls to skulls. But you cheat. Probably.
7: Someone is the unluckiest coach on FUMBBL today. Someone is the unluckiest BB coach ever. Maybe it is you! So? Them's the breaks. Buckle up, coach better, and mitigate the risk.
8: It's. A. Game. Chillax and enjoy. In the words of Elsa that will eternally slam through the mind of everyone with children the same age as mine....
'Let it Go' |
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Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
I am a barbarian here because i am not understood by anyone
Last edited by PurpleChest on %b %16, %2020 - %12:%Nov; edited 1 time in total |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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 Posted:
Nov 16, 2020 - 12:16 |
 
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Important thing: I didn't keep track of quad skulls because I thought the RNG was broken or it hated me, I just wanted to have an idea of the quad skull average, so I started to keep track of them 1 year ago, for the science's sake. |
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PurpleChest
Joined: Oct 25, 2003
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Important thing: My wife sensibly stocks up pre lockdown. A process made harder by the people panic buying, which she doesnt do. But has a scientific interest in. |
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Barbarus hic ego sum, quia non intelligor illis -Ovid
I am a barbarian here because i am not understood by anyone |
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koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
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| Posted:
Nov 16, 2020 - 12:33 |
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| PurpleChest wrote: | | Important thing: My wife sensibly stocks up pre lockdown. A process made harder by the people panic buying, which she doesnt do. But has a scientific interest in. |
I guess that people wouldn't need to panic buy if so many other people weren't panic buying :mrgeen:
Psst. Wanna buy some toilet paper?
Edit: Unused. Still in original pakaging. |
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O[L]C 2016 Swiss! - April ---- All Star Bowl - Teams of Stars - 2 more teams needed |
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garyt1
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
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Nov 17, 2020 - 02:42 |
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Ah, so this is the reason for those minmax zero reroll teams! :O |
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“A wise man can learn more from a foolish question than a fool can learn from a wise answer.” |
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MrCushtie
Joined: Aug 10, 2018
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2020 - 02:56 |
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Minmax zero reroll teams are because of panic buying toilet roll?
Makes sense to me!  |
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Grod
Joined: Sep 30, 2003
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Nov 17, 2020 - 04:51 |
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I just want to add that there is no proof whatsoever that the Admin client that certain FUMBBL players use has any affect on the RNG. Any anecdotal evidence to the contrary is largely hearsay and has generally been denied by the Fumbbl staff. |
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I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.
Oscar Wilde |
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argos_72
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2020 - 23:14 |
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| MattDakka wrote: | Hello!
Info about the RNG here: https://fumbbl.com/help:FFB_RNG
About getting 2 x double skulls often: some time ago I rolled 2 x double skulls in a game, then I rolled them again 1 day later, in another match (on 2/12/2019 and on 3/12/2019).
It can happen, but if you keep track of double skulls with a big sample size you will find that they happen as much as expected.
I use to keep track of them, this is why I know it. 
I rolled 13 quad skulls in the 813 games sample below:
[...]
average of 1 quad skull every 62,53 matches. |
Impressive analysis, indeed. 
Thanks to have shared.
This sounds totally reasonable.
I would expect quad skulls event also more frequent :if you consider an average of 60 double block dices rolls per match you should see one quad skull event in the range of 20-40 matches. If you consider also the quad skulls of your opponent you should see this event in average every 10-20 games played. We speak about probability so no certitude but this should be the average for all palyers I guess.
The funny thing is that I have seen this event twice in my last 5 matches: one against me and one time against my opponent.
This is very unlikely.
I will keep tracking of this! ciao! |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 17, 2020 - 23:26 |
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I only kept track of my own quad skulls in that sample.
About the average of blocks per game: I play quite often my agile teams and they don't throw many blocks, that could be a reason. Also, I try to set up 3d blocks whenever possible.
If you play often bash teams your own quad skull/matches average could vary. Ciao! |
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Angeblich
Joined: Aug 18, 2008
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Nov 18, 2020 - 13:38 |
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Just a little anecdote: At the World cup 2019 in Dornbirn, I had 7 consecutive GFI-fails in one game. With real dice, 2 or 3 of them rerolls.
Yes, I know, to have to use so many doesn't shine great light on my skills. Came out 1-1-7... |
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MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
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| Posted:
Nov 18, 2020 - 14:34 |
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Many real dice are not well balanced.
The GW ones can have small fusion flaws and bubbles you can't see altering slightly the chance of rolling some results.
Ideally you should use clear Casino dice but they are big and not suited to being rolled on a pitch cluttered by miniatures, they need some space to roll properly. |
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Mattius
Joined: Sep 03, 2006
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| Posted:
Nov 18, 2020 - 15:17 |
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| Angeblich wrote: | Just a little anecdote: At the World cup 2019 in Dornbirn, I had 7 consecutive GFI-fails in one game. With real dice, 2 or 3 of them rerolls.
Yes, I know, to have to use so many doesn't shine great light on my skills. Came out 1-1-7... |
Just to add to this, at the world cup I faced throw a rock 8 times in 9 games. 7 of them against me. In table top I always propose now that we use the same dice. This way no one can feel hard done by. |
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