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Primarch



Joined: Dec 14, 2003

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 03:25 Reply with quote Back to top

I know getting diced is a thing in Blood Bowl, lol. Having said that, one of you mathmagicians, what are the odds of 3 straight Blitzes for your opponent on the kickoff table? I'm just curious.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 03:52 Reply with quote Back to top

1/1728. 3 chances to roll a 10 on 2d6, out of 36, is 1 in 12. Cube that, 1 in 1728.

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Nelphine



Joined: Apr 01, 2011

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 05:04 Reply with quote Back to top

which means it happens a little less than once a week Razz
Carthage



Joined: Mar 18, 2021

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 06:21 Reply with quote Back to top

Technically the odds that it happened to you is 100% since it happened Smile
MerryZ



Joined: Nov 28, 2005

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 08:41 Reply with quote Back to top

Ive had 4 blitzes in one game.

Rats were really happy.

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koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 09:49 Reply with quote Back to top

I'm pretty sure that 3 blitzes happened in a Major final. It might not have been in a row though.

That was back when you could move all players.

Anyone remember?
Hoping that it was not so long ago that there is no replay.

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dementor42



Joined: Oct 27, 2017

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 09:59 Reply with quote Back to top

Math? Math!
koadah



Joined: Mar 30, 2005

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 10:19 Reply with quote Back to top

Maths?

Probability?

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MattDakka



Joined: Oct 09, 2007

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 10:55 Reply with quote Back to top

If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way.
tussock



Joined: May 29, 2011

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 10:59 Reply with quote Back to top

If they score from the blitz!, they get another blitz!, score from that for the 3rd.

Also it's really only 1 in 144, as the first one is 100% gunna happen at some point.

Every gross of blitz! kickoffs is a triple, if they happen early enough to get the other two.

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Primarch



Joined: Dec 14, 2003

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 14:44 Reply with quote Back to top

Carthage wrote:
Technically the odds that it happened to you is 100% since it happened Smile


Lol! True I guess!
Primarch



Joined: Dec 14, 2003

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 14:49 Reply with quote Back to top

MattDakka wrote:
If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way.


While in general I understand this concept.

I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.

He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.

I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered.
JackassRampant



Joined: Feb 26, 2011

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 15:16 Reply with quote Back to top

Primarch wrote:
MattDakka wrote:
If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way.


While in general I understand this concept.

I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.

He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.

I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered.
Oh, yeah, no worries. It's good that the game Nuffle decided you were definitely going to lose was one you were probably going to lose anyway. Laugh it off and count your blessings.

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Primarch



Joined: Dec 14, 2003

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 15:25 Reply with quote Back to top

JackassRampant wrote:
Primarch wrote:
MattDakka wrote:
If you are suffering 3 Blitzes maybe you are not stalling enough, by the way.


While in general I understand this concept.

I kickoff to him, he scores, no chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me, Blitz. Since I was Snots and trying to learn how to really play them against DE, he scores again. No chance for me to stall.

He kickoff to me at 2nd half, team badly beat up at this point, he rolls Blitz again, scores again.

He kickoff to me, down to 4-6 players or something, IIRC of course, he rolls Blitz yet again. I think of 5 kickoffs, I got to go first on 1 or 2 of them, and by then, he was up big and I had almost no team left so I was just wanting it be over, lol.

I do get it though, and I would have stalled some if I had the chance when it mattered.
Oh, yeah, no worries. It's good that the game Nuffle decided you were definitely going to lose was one you were probably going to lose anyway. Laugh it off and count your blessings.


Yep, that's about how I figured it. What's even funnier, is that after the 2nd blitz, when he went to kickoff for the 3rd straight time, I literally said in the chat, "what are the odds of a 3rd straight blitz?" or something similar. Lol!
RDaneel



Joined: Feb 24, 2023

Post   Posted: May 18, 2024 - 19:25 Reply with quote Back to top

you cannot receive the ball in this way vs DE with stunty team is a pre-suicide
Image

the SFplayers (starplayer and PumpVagon) should be put in the corridors closer to center, then 2 other snots to the external part of the corridor (red circles) and the 2 swarm (light blue circle) where the ball appears (or one in front the other)

If Blitz! arrive (9% probability on the kick off table) he will not try "all-in" if you set up in protection mode and probably could not easily pass . If blitz! doesn't arrive you have possibility to group (blitzing with the pump vagon maybe)

Probability of a single Blitz! event in kick off table is 9%. If you receive 4 times the probability to suffer at least one Blitz! is closer to 25% and it is sufficient to get one successful Blitz! to lose the game- especially when you play Snots vs fast teams as if things start going bad there is the snow ball effect ... and game is lost

I would not focus on the probability to had 3 times Blitz! in 4 kick off (which is i think below 1% i think) but the probability to get ONE blitz! in one kick off which is 9% and is not terrible low... every 5-6 kick off can happen.

Than losing a game 4-0 3-0 2-0 does not change anything except your opponent gained an avalance of Spps Smile

however don't be discouraged 25% of this game is decided at the dice (which is a lot) but you should not try to win by hoping for the dice and OVER ALL don't focus on the fact you lose because the dice.

Then of course everybody can be diced, but the theory of the big numbers say that in average dice are always fair: so very likely somewhere in your future next games you will be very lucky in the kick off table!:
so it's time to dare!
ciao! And good luck!

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