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2014-03-18 17:39:10
3 votes, rating 3.7
3 votes, rating 3.7
UI first round
https://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=match&id=3547549
In this game. I bet my game and lost that my opponent with wrestle. strip ball and tackle frenzy.
against my blodge WW.
He throws two dice up hill. rolls amazingly and knocks me down and scores the spine crushing third TD.
Now if you do the math how bad was what I gave up? 2d uphill.
To me that fails roughly 33% of the time (either die a skull)
33% of the time it is a both down where he has to wrestle and I keep the ball in 1-2 tzs.
The remaining amount of the time he knocks me down and has better than average odds of getting the ball tackle zone free. (albeit if he rolls double push he has to 2db uphill me again even with the ball free.
Is my math relatively correct or did I bet my game on a stupid idea?
In this game. I bet my game and lost that my opponent with wrestle. strip ball and tackle frenzy.
against my blodge WW.
He throws two dice up hill. rolls amazingly and knocks me down and scores the spine crushing third TD.
Now if you do the math how bad was what I gave up? 2d uphill.
To me that fails roughly 33% of the time (either die a skull)
33% of the time it is a both down where he has to wrestle and I keep the ball in 1-2 tzs.
The remaining amount of the time he knocks me down and has better than average odds of getting the ball tackle zone free. (albeit if he rolls double push he has to 2db uphill me again even with the ball free.
Is my math relatively correct or did I bet my game on a stupid idea?
Comments
Posted by gamelsetlmatch on 2014-03-18 18:00:03
Wrestle, Tackle, Strip ball...
These skills vs a player with no sure hands...the only dice result that makes it a failed hit is a skull, which can be re-rolled. I am sure there are all kinds of 'percentages' but that skill combo, from what I have seen is pretty reliable. I would expect it to work wayyyy more than for it to fail.
These skills vs a player with no sure hands...the only dice result that makes it a failed hit is a skull, which can be re-rolled. I am sure there are all kinds of 'percentages' but that skill combo, from what I have seen is pretty reliable. I would expect it to work wayyyy more than for it to fail.
Posted by thebursar on 2014-03-18 18:08:54
Seeing as it was our match, i felt I would comment. As I see it you had no real hiding place for the bc. You parked the wolf between two guard golems, so -2d was my only option. but it was turn 6 of the 2nd half and I was 2-1 up, so I was pretty happy with any result but skulls. Worst case scenario would have been a ball in 2 tz's, but with it landing in 1 I could secure it too.
My wrestle,tackle, strip ball, frenzy player had (as I see it) a 11/36 chance to fail, which I could reroll as well (the real % is a bit higher because I could always skull the second block), but decent enough that I felt it was worth it to at least pop the ball and force you in to another pickup.
Getting pow/powpush on the first block was perhaps lucky, but not the only result I would have been happy with.
My wrestle,tackle, strip ball, frenzy player had (as I see it) a 11/36 chance to fail, which I could reroll as well (the real % is a bit higher because I could always skull the second block), but decent enough that I felt it was worth it to at least pop the ball and force you in to another pickup.
Getting pow/powpush on the first block was perhaps lucky, but not the only result I would have been happy with.
Posted by Verminardo on 2014-03-18 18:09:15
http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/
-2D Block will produce none-skull result 69.444% of the time. With a team re-roll the odds are 90.664%.
Chance for actual knockdown with Wrestle/Tackle is 25% and 43.75% with re-roll.
-2D Block will produce none-skull result 69.444% of the time. With a team re-roll the odds are 90.664%.
Chance for actual knockdown with Wrestle/Tackle is 25% and 43.75% with re-roll.
Posted by Acheron143 on 2014-03-18 18:15:31
Sadly I think my best choice where I was at was what I took. short of parking him on my goal line and further botching my chances of tying.
I thought my odds would be better than 31% or 10% with an opponents RR. Learning can still happen in the BB world. I don't normally play this high a TV.
I thought my odds would be better than 31% or 10% with an opponents RR. Learning can still happen in the BB world. I don't normally play this high a TV.
Posted by happygrue on 2014-03-18 18:19:26
@Acheron143: What it boils down to is that lacking Sure Hands there really hurt. If you had sure hands he had a 25% chance to take you down with a -2d (and ~30% to go down himself with a skull). Without sure hands, he gets ~70% to get the ball loose and still ~30% to go down himself (not including any frenzy).
Posted by Ehlers on 2014-03-18 18:31:38
Well he had a re-roll and that would lead it to 90% chance of getting the ball free if I am not mistaken.
On the first block, he has 25% of getting you down (if not taken skull and push into it), then with his frenzy he gets another block where he just need not to roll a skull. The 2nd block has a success of 69,4% if I am not mistaken.
I actually dont know if you get 2push the first time and then double skulls 2nd time would lead to still the ball popped, but a turnover. Maybe someone can answer?
3 rolls:
So on 3 rolls you have roughly 33% to succeed
He has 1roll: 25%, 2roll 69,4% and re-rolling the dice would lead to 90%.
So I dont really see he rolls amazingly at all. You gambled big time with only 33% in your favor.
On the first block, he has 25% of getting you down (if not taken skull and push into it), then with his frenzy he gets another block where he just need not to roll a skull. The 2nd block has a success of 69,4% if I am not mistaken.
I actually dont know if you get 2push the first time and then double skulls 2nd time would lead to still the ball popped, but a turnover. Maybe someone can answer?
3 rolls:
So on 3 rolls you have roughly 33% to succeed
He has 1roll: 25%, 2roll 69,4% and re-rolling the dice would lead to 90%.
So I dont really see he rolls amazingly at all. You gambled big time with only 33% in your favor.
Posted by Garion on 2014-03-18 21:33:18
Bad play by you I'm afraid. Half dice block will work 90% of the time with rr. You need to carry the ball with sure hands all the time and never allow hits on your ball carrier. But you live and you learn. In future you won't make the same mistake again :)
Posted by Verminardo on 2014-03-18 23:08:06
Well, having watched the replay, dude, why didn't you just keep the ball with your Sure Hands Ghoul OR set up with your AG5 as Quarterback? Why did you do a vanity Pass in such a crucial moment?
And the next turn, you also didn't think ahead. Yes, you got the Side Stepper off the ball, but you committed three players who were in a useless position afterwards. You had AG5, a reroll, and Dodge vs. no Tackle, for Nuffle's sake! You could have simply picked up the ball out of that tackle zone and dodged back out, at a 1/36 chance to fail, each!
At the point where you caught the bounce you indeed didn't have any sensible options to build a cage and move towards scoring any more. I guess it would still have been better to sweep to your left flank as far as possible but your chance of scoring was slim.
And the next turn, you also didn't think ahead. Yes, you got the Side Stepper off the ball, but you committed three players who were in a useless position afterwards. You had AG5, a reroll, and Dodge vs. no Tackle, for Nuffle's sake! You could have simply picked up the ball out of that tackle zone and dodged back out, at a 1/36 chance to fail, each!
At the point where you caught the bounce you indeed didn't have any sensible options to build a cage and move towards scoring any more. I guess it would still have been better to sweep to your left flank as far as possible but your chance of scoring was slim.
Posted by the_Sage on 2014-03-19 22:44:19
Yeah Ehlers, the ball is popped on the first push. The ball is dropped and resolved before the second (frenzy block). You could even hit a wrestler, catch the ball as it's stripped, then get wrestled down on frenzy while holding the ball, thus suffering a turnover. =D