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2009-05-07 15:23:55
26 votes, rating 3.4
26 votes, rating 3.4
Risk Statistics of a Turnover
Over at TBB, I found the following percentages:
http://www.talkbloodbowl.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=24038
Assuming that you have a Team Re-Roll available, your chance of turn over is...
1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.00%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 0.08%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 0.14%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 1.23%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 2.78%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 2.78%
7) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 7.40%
8 ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 9.36%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 11.1%
11) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 16.67%
12) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 17.72%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 25.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 25.93%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 30.86%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 38.89%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 44.44%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 49.52%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 50.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 63.89%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 69.44%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 66.67%
Without a Team Re-roll available your chance of turn over is...
1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.46%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 2.78%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 3.70%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 11.11%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 16.67%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 16.67%
7) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 30.60%
8 ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 30.60%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 33.33%
11) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 42.10%
12) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 44.40%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 50.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 55.56%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 66.67%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 66.67%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 75.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 83.33%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 83.33%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 88.89%
http://www.talkbloodbowl.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=24038
Assuming that you have a Team Re-Roll available, your chance of turn over is...
1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.00%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 0.08%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 0.14%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 1.23%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 2.78%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 2.78%
7) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 7.40%
8 ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 9.36%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 11.1%
11) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 16.67%
12) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 17.72%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 25.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 25.93%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 30.86%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 38.89%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 44.44%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 49.52%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 50.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 63.89%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 69.44%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 66.67%
Without a Team Re-roll available your chance of turn over is...
1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.46%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 2.78%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 3.70%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 11.11%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 16.67%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 16.67%
7) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 30.60%
8 ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 30.60%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 33.33%
11) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 42.10%
12) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 44.40%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 50.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 55.56%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 66.67%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 66.67%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 75.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 83.33%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 83.33%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 88.89%
Comments
Posted by Stinkytroll on 2009-05-07 15:38:26
I think Han Solo said it best when he said "Never tell me the odds!"
Posted by maysrill on 2009-05-07 15:45:45
Your 3db with reroll percentage needs a 3rd decimal place. It's not a 0% chance, since I've seen it happen (once) from a 1st person perspective.
Generally speaking, this is stuff every experienced coach should already have a good grasp of, even if it's not to two decimal places. Knowing that AG2 dodges, while not something to strive for, are not guaranteed turnovers is sometimes the difference in a game. Those longbeards and BoBs aren't totally immobile :)
Generally speaking, this is stuff every experienced coach should already have a good grasp of, even if it's not to two decimal places. Knowing that AG2 dodges, while not something to strive for, are not guaranteed turnovers is sometimes the difference in a game. Those longbeards and BoBs aren't totally immobile :)
Posted by RC on 2009-05-07 15:51:54
True never tell me the odds, If I know how easy it is to not roll a one.. guess what I roll a one. And if I miss a diving tackle or dodge in a tz with a mummy.. guess what.. automatic 6 on the dodge .
Posted by xcver on 2009-05-07 16:23:45
19) and 20) seem wrong with a reroll. I would expect that to be 62,5% for 19) and 72,22% for 20)
didn't check any other stuff too boring
didn't check any other stuff too boring
Posted by RealMadns on 2009-05-07 19:04:24
No, they are correct.
The calculatios are as follows:
19:
0.5*0.5 = 0.25 (chance of making it without using the rr)
0.5*0.5*0.5= 0.125 (rr on the 1st roll)
0.5*0.5*0.5= 0.125 (rr on the 2nd roll)
Total chance of succes (0.25+0.125+0.125) = 0.50
Chance of failure (1 - 0.50) = 0.50 = 50%
20:
0.33*0.5 = 0.1667 (no rr)
0.66*0.33*0.5= 0.1111 (rr on the 1st)
0.33*0.5*0.5= 0.0833 (rr on the 2nd)
Total chance of succes (0.1667+0.1111+0.0833)=0.3611
Cance of Failure (1 - 0.3611) = 0,6389 = 63.89%
The calculatios are as follows:
19:
0.5*0.5 = 0.25 (chance of making it without using the rr)
0.5*0.5*0.5= 0.125 (rr on the 1st roll)
0.5*0.5*0.5= 0.125 (rr on the 2nd roll)
Total chance of succes (0.25+0.125+0.125) = 0.50
Chance of failure (1 - 0.50) = 0.50 = 50%
20:
0.33*0.5 = 0.1667 (no rr)
0.66*0.33*0.5= 0.1111 (rr on the 1st)
0.33*0.5*0.5= 0.0833 (rr on the 2nd)
Total chance of succes (0.1667+0.1111+0.0833)=0.3611
Cance of Failure (1 - 0.3611) = 0,6389 = 63.89%
Posted by Laura on 2009-05-07 22:43:38
8 ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 9.36%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%
This it kinda low, (with RR).. so 9/10 times you will get away with it :)
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%
This it kinda low, (with RR).. so 9/10 times you will get away with it :)
Posted by Belca on 2009-05-08 11:29:37
@Laura:
And those made it right into your profile :)
And those made it right into your profile :)