Posted by WhatBall on 2012-06-23 06:19:09

Latu, have you been possessed by Spiro? QC will bounce back in the CFFL and all will be good again. I promise. :D

Posted by Nekran on 2012-06-23 06:43:17

Precisely figuring out those no-cas-odds is a bit too much work to my liking, but I have a dark elf team that didn't suffer a singel cas in its first 3 games, 128 blocks against all in all. So it's probably not that crazy.

Also why do you think the randomness generator is broken sometimes? Seems like a weird thing to think.

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-06-23 07:52:10

27 knock downs (that didnt break armour), 8 KOs, 9 stuns

ill work the odds after i finish watching this episode of lie to me

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-06-23 09:03:00

44 knockdowns out of 62 blocks is totally reasonable given the proliferation of block and dodge, so we we'll skip that step. In fact given the lack of tackle, 44 knockdowns is probably 5-8 above average.

So already Nurgle is beating the odds.

Now breaking armour 17 out of 44 times; given that 1 mighty blow was really stupid, and only one mighty blow had block, and claw/piling on wasn't really allowed to play a part due to lack of block/tackle, and the tackler (with no mighty blow) did a lot of blitzing, we can assume the majority of blocks did not have mighty blow. So let's call it 9 knockdowns with mighty blow; with these 9, we expect 5 armour breaks. With the other 35 knockdowns we expect 16 armour breaks. Total expected armour breaks: 21. Actual: 17.

But if we compare with the expected knockdowns of 39 (7 mighty blow), we find that only based on 62 blocks, with the mighty blow spread as given, we expected PRECISELY 17 armour breaks.

So now, Nurgle has broken armour almost exactly the expected number of times given 62 blocks and the skills they had, although they were lucky to get an extra 5 knockdowns on top.

So Nurgle is STILL beating the odds.

Next, 9 stuns. 17 armour breaks, 4 from mighty blow; assume 1 mighy blow armour break uses the +1 to break the armour. So 3 broke armour and had the +1 for the cas roll; and a total of 14 broke armour with no modifier on the cas roll. We expect 9 stuns. Which is EXACTLY what we got.

So Nurgle is still slightly ahead due to a few extra knockdowns.

Next, KO's. 8 armour breaks which are not stuns. Assume that 1 broken armour that is not a stun has a +1 modifier from mighy blow. We expect that we will get 5 KO's; and there is an 8% chance of not getting any cas at all.

So Nurgle was a little unlucky in cas; but they were a little lucky in knockdowns.

You did not have a particularly unlucky game Iatulike. Get more tackle/MB. When you have 4 mighty blow/tackle/block S4 players, and one of them has frenzy, and you have a 5th mighty blow S5 player, and you play against wood elves AND you have 2 4+ player gang fouls, AND the tree is tied up with other players than the 5 mentioned the whole game, and you STILL get 0 casualties and only 4 KO's, then come and complain about luck.

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-06-23 09:10:30

Bah apparently I misread; it was 72 blocks not 62.

10 extra blocks turns into 7 extra knockdowns (so nurgle was 2 below average), turns into 3 extra armour breaks (nurgle is 3 below average) turns into 2 extra KO's and stuns (nurgle actually had 1 too FEW stuns), and 6 expected KOs, which is 4 expected casualties; and only a 2% chance of no cas at all. Still, thats more almost 25 times as double skull reroll double skull.

You can complain a little more, but still... that was not a noteworthy unlucky game.

Posted by Nelphine on 2012-06-23 09:11:12

*25 times as likely

Posted by blader4411 on 2012-06-23 09:58:06

What's that phrase again?
"The better you play, the luckier you are"?

Don't rage on a blog, go read a playbook or something.

Posted by Starfire on 2012-06-23 10:28:18

First Off, I had only 2 block OR dodge (yes I was the opo)
Nurgle had one tackle, but only two dodge to worry about.
Overall, i've played Woodies with more dodge/block and suffered cas.
Overall, I'm still shocked by the lack of real pain.


On a side note, I have a blog with exactly the same name :).

Posted by Reisender on 2012-06-23 11:11:48

voted 6 for "the randomness generator is SOMETIMES broken"

is it broken when it rolls triple skull? i am sure a good randomness generator should not allow such events to happen...