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2011-02-03 01:22:16
27 votes, rating 5.1
27 votes, rating 5.1
Actual racial distribution in blackbox
Tonight, I recorded all the scheduled games from 18.15 to 0.30 (BBtime) to see what race are really played in the black box, and I compared it to the racial distribution displayed on the Blackbox page. Nearly 400 teams were scheduled. I computed the percentage of each race within the existing teams (active team with more than 5 games) and the teams played tonight.
I expected that the "physical" teams are played more often that the racial distribution indicates. To my great surprise, the record shows the contrary.
Teams that are less played than expected are:
1) Dwarf -2.7%
2) Khemri -2.4%
3) Undead -1.9%
Teams that are more played than expected are:
1) Wood elf +2.9%
2) Chaos pack +2.8%
3) Orcs +1.9%
EDIT: This numbers are the difference: (percentage of the the race among existing teams) minus (percentage of the the race among teams played yesterday evening). Here are the statistics at least for this 6 races:
I expected that the "physical" teams are played more often that the racial distribution indicates. To my great surprise, the record shows the contrary.
Teams that are less played than expected are:
1) Dwarf -2.7%
2) Khemri -2.4%
3) Undead -1.9%
Teams that are more played than expected are:
1) Wood elf +2.9%
2) Chaos pack +2.8%
3) Orcs +1.9%
EDIT: This numbers are the difference: (percentage of the the race among existing teams) minus (percentage of the the race among teams played yesterday evening). Here are the statistics at least for this 6 races:
Existing % Played % %difference
Dwarf 105 8.8 23 6.1 -2.7
Orc 98 8.2 39 10.3 +1.9
Undead 63 5.3 12 3.2 -1.9
Chaos Pact 49 4.1 26 6.9 +2.8
Wood Elf 44 3.7 25 6.6 +2.9
Khemri 42 3.5 5 1.3 -2.4
Comments
Posted by Macavity on 2011-02-03 03:08:50
Chaos Pact was expected. Lower Dwarves is comforting.
Posted by Grod on 2011-02-03 06:44:54
The Box distribution stats only show teams which have played at least 5 games. This naturally skews the statistics to indicate more bashy teams, as they are less likely to have retired in their first 5 games, and ignores all those Elf-1-game-wonders.
Posted by Ballcrusher on 2011-02-03 07:51:05
I'm more surprised that the percentages are so low. The blackbox page gives a pretty accurate picture if a single nights games doesn't differ with more than max. 3 %
Posted by Grod on 2011-02-03 08:11:40
I think those are percentage changes of the total?
In which case, for example, supposing Black Box Central says Wood Elves are 3% of the total, a +3% change means that they were actually playing double the amount.
The average percentage should be about 4% ... right?
In which case, for example, supposing Black Box Central says Wood Elves are 3% of the total, a +3% change means that they were actually playing double the amount.
The average percentage should be about 4% ... right?
Posted by Bardazur on 2011-02-03 08:46:38
Yes, what I indicage is (percentage of the the race among existing teams) minus (percentage of the the race among teams played yesterday evening).
I have a full chart, with all the teams but I don't know how to display this with BBcode.
I edit to show at least the statistics concerning the 6 races.
I have a full chart, with all the teams but I don't know how to display this with BBcode.
I edit to show at least the statistics concerning the 6 races.
Posted by Burnalot on 2011-02-03 09:43:42
http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=blackbox
No point computing stuff like that in my opoinion. The BlackBox Central racial distribution tells it all. People have no guts, period.
No point computing stuff like that in my opoinion. The BlackBox Central racial distribution tells it all. People have no guts, period.
Posted by Grod on 2011-02-03 11:11:01
Yes it does Burnalot. The point is that people are STARTING lots of Elf teams. In fact, the statistics above suggest there are more Wood Elf teams activating than Dwarf teams!
The point is that unless the team has already played 5 games, it doesn't count. Further, once a team has made it to 5 games, it doesn't matter how much they activate, they only count once.
So there are lots of Elf teams activating at lower TV, but they are getting retired before the 5th game, so they aren't counting. Or, possibly, older elf teams that are very active, but only counting once.
So for example, a Wood Elf team that plays 4 games, and then retires, does not count to the racial distribution statistics at all, while an old Dwarf team that plays just once, does count. This leads to a very obvious bias in the statistics.
The point is that unless the team has already played 5 games, it doesn't count. Further, once a team has made it to 5 games, it doesn't matter how much they activate, they only count once.
So there are lots of Elf teams activating at lower TV, but they are getting retired before the 5th game, so they aren't counting. Or, possibly, older elf teams that are very active, but only counting once.
So for example, a Wood Elf team that plays 4 games, and then retires, does not count to the racial distribution statistics at all, while an old Dwarf team that plays just once, does count. This leads to a very obvious bias in the statistics.
Posted by Macavity on 2011-02-03 15:46:17
I have guts.... My undead don't! Seriously, though, other than a depressed-creation Nurgle team I've yet to play with, my box teams are pretty un-bashy with no sign of retirement in site.
Lots of bash = lots of claw
Lots of Claw = Skills wasted against 'lighter' teams = lighter teams rise in popularity! People like to win, just wait them out.
Lots of bash = lots of claw
Lots of Claw = Skills wasted against 'lighter' teams = lighter teams rise in popularity! People like to win, just wait them out.
Posted by Timlagor on 2011-02-04 16:02:58
So a whole day has passed and no one has told us these are statistically significant! Bring on the mathmos!
Dwarves are up to 110 now ;)
I'm surprised to see chaod dwarf not top though from the number I've seen playing: I imagin this is because it's like dwarves but with claw (even though it's not very like dwarves)
So if I want the Box to seem less bashy what I need to do is activate all my non-bashy teams once a month ...then I can play dwarves the rest of the time!
Dwarves are up to 110 now ;)
I'm surprised to see chaod dwarf not top though from the number I've seen playing: I imagin this is because it's like dwarves but with claw (even though it's not very like dwarves)
So if I want the Box to seem less bashy what I need to do is activate all my non-bashy teams once a month ...then I can play dwarves the rest of the time!