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2011-02-13 21:19:49
33 votes, rating 5.2
33 votes, rating 5.2
LRB6 - Fouling and Dirty Player
Many coaches think that Dirty player is useless in the LRB6 ruleset, because even if you are sure to break the armor, the odds of being expelled are 11 out of 36, while the odds of a casuality are only 10 out of 36 (6 out of 36 without DP skill).
However, we can foul a valuable player with a useless zombie/lineman, and even if the victim is only KO'ed, it's better than nothing. So I did the math and computed the expected value of a foul. Intuitively, the expected value give the "average result" of a roll. But to compute it, we must give a "value" to each outcome of the roll. To compute this value, I consider the "value" of the player (its value in the team value) with the following assumptions.
Let f be the value af the fouler,and v be the value of the victim. If the fouler is expelled from the game, the valued result of the foul is -f. If the victim suffers a casuality, the valued result is +v. If the fictim is stunned; it is +v/16 because there are 16 turns in a regular game. If the victim is KO'ed, I consider that the valued result is +v/4 (i.e. the victim cannot play 1/4 of the game). Both results can be combined; for example if the victim is KO'ed and the fouler is out, the valued result is v/4-f.
If the expected value is positive, it means that it is worth fouling. We can express this by a coefficient c such that if v> c*f, the foul is probably a good thing to do.
Here are the results of the computation, depending on the armor of the victim. The "armor" may be down to 1 because of the assist, in other words if you foul an AV8 victim with 2 assists, it is like fouling an AV6 victim.
How to read the results: for example, if you foul an AV9 player with a DP + 1 assist, the coefficient is 1.56. It means that if the value of the victim is 1.56 times the value of the fouler or more, it is worth fouling, from a mathematical point of view.
Of course, this mathematical computation does not reflect the tactical interest of a foul, but it demonstrate that:
1) it is worth fouling a star player with a zombie, even with a few assists
2) DP skill is still quite useful
However, we can foul a valuable player with a useless zombie/lineman, and even if the victim is only KO'ed, it's better than nothing. So I did the math and computed the expected value of a foul. Intuitively, the expected value give the "average result" of a roll. But to compute it, we must give a "value" to each outcome of the roll. To compute this value, I consider the "value" of the player (its value in the team value) with the following assumptions.
Let f be the value af the fouler,and v be the value of the victim. If the fouler is expelled from the game, the valued result of the foul is -f. If the victim suffers a casuality, the valued result is +v. If the fictim is stunned; it is +v/16 because there are 16 turns in a regular game. If the victim is KO'ed, I consider that the valued result is +v/4 (i.e. the victim cannot play 1/4 of the game). Both results can be combined; for example if the victim is KO'ed and the fouler is out, the valued result is v/4-f.
If the expected value is positive, it means that it is worth fouling. We can express this by a coefficient c such that if v> c*f, the foul is probably a good thing to do.
Here are the results of the computation, depending on the armor of the victim. The "armor" may be down to 1 because of the assist, in other words if you foul an AV8 victim with 2 assists, it is like fouling an AV6 victim.
With no skill
armor 10 coeff 7.95
armor 9 coeff 4.18
armor 8 coeff 2.76
armor 7 coeff 2.01
armor 6 coeff 1.61
armor 5 coeff 1.40
armor 4 coeff 1.30
armor 3 coeff 1.22
armor 2 coeff 1.18
armor 1 coeff 1.15
With Dirty Player skill
armor 10 coeff 3.44
armor 9 coeff 2.19
armor 8 coeff 1.56
armor 7 coeff 1.23
armor 6 coeff 1.04
armor 5 coeff 0.94
armor 4 coeff 0.87
armor 3 coeff 0.84
armor 2 coeff 0.81
armor 1 coeff 0.80
How to read the results: for example, if you foul an AV9 player with a DP + 1 assist, the coefficient is 1.56. It means that if the value of the victim is 1.56 times the value of the fouler or more, it is worth fouling, from a mathematical point of view.
Of course, this mathematical computation does not reflect the tactical interest of a foul, but it demonstrate that:
1) it is worth fouling a star player with a zombie, even with a few assists
2) DP skill is still quite useful
Comments
Posted by uuni on 2011-02-13 22:06:45
I like your way of thinking in the matter.
If we want to go to the details, one vector of attack could be found in the valuation of knock-out in the calculations. In the calculations, a knock-out is valued as a 1/4 of removing a player. While I feel that this valuation is probably quite near to accurate, it also may not be.
The amount of kick-offs varies from 2 to goals+2. The possibility of a knocked-out player to recover is from 3/6 to 5/6 varied by the number of Bloodweiser Babes. Sometimes also a casualty comes back to the game thanks to the apothecary; many coaches for instance use the apo on the first SI, making half of the first SIs then less harmful for the fouled team than KOs.
These factors may affect the calculations. How do you feel about them?
There has been some discussion about matters close to your point in the forum. One interesting piece of discussion can be found at [url]http://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=18824&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=[/url]. I found also that quite interesting.
I really like very much your type of economical thinking. I agree with you, that the current type of DP is not for nil. I also believe in your opinions about fouling star players with zombies.
If we want to go to the details, one vector of attack could be found in the valuation of knock-out in the calculations. In the calculations, a knock-out is valued as a 1/4 of removing a player. While I feel that this valuation is probably quite near to accurate, it also may not be.
The amount of kick-offs varies from 2 to goals+2. The possibility of a knocked-out player to recover is from 3/6 to 5/6 varied by the number of Bloodweiser Babes. Sometimes also a casualty comes back to the game thanks to the apothecary; many coaches for instance use the apo on the first SI, making half of the first SIs then less harmful for the fouled team than KOs.
These factors may affect the calculations. How do you feel about them?
There has been some discussion about matters close to your point in the forum. One interesting piece of discussion can be found at [url]http://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=18824&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=[/url]. I found also that quite interesting.
I really like very much your type of economical thinking. I agree with you, that the current type of DP is not for nil. I also believe in your opinions about fouling star players with zombies.
Posted by KJG on 2011-02-13 22:51:58
Nice work!
Posted by KJG on 2011-02-13 22:55:17
Btw, I think people's reaction to the nerfed dp is obviously based on their experience with the old dp, which was far too almighty, if you ask me. The current rules mean that if you have an opportunity, you sometimes foul and sometimes you don't, and it usually doesn't decide the fate of the match. This is the way it should be, fouling shouldn't be the most important aspect of a match, like it used to be.
Posted by Bardazur on 2011-02-14 00:00:15
@uuni : thank you for the link to the forum discussion. I came back recently to Fumbbl, and I did not read old forum topics. I should also take sneaky git into account.
Concerning the KO value, I agree that fixing it to v/4 is arbitrary. In mind my, these results does not say precisely when to foul, and when to not foul (tactical considerations are much more important). however, they allow us to measure the advantage of DP skill compared to a fouling without it. And even if changing the value of KO'ed and cas would change the results a bit, it won't change the fact that fouling a skilful positional player with a DP lineman is worth it most of the time;
Concerning the KO value, I agree that fixing it to v/4 is arbitrary. In mind my, these results does not say precisely when to foul, and when to not foul (tactical considerations are much more important). however, they allow us to measure the advantage of DP skill compared to a fouling without it. And even if changing the value of KO'ed and cas would change the results a bit, it won't change the fact that fouling a skilful positional player with a DP lineman is worth it most of the time;
Posted by Timlagor on 2011-02-14 01:02:35
Don't overlook the 'stealth nerf' to Dp and fouling in general that teh fouler no longer adds one to the Armour roll ..at least I think that's a change...
Posted by PainState on 2011-02-14 01:23:21
Is this starting to turn into a therapy session that DP can still make an opponeet not Pileon/MB every single turn?
Posted by Balle2000 on 2011-02-14 01:51:12
this is simply great work! my norse linemen just got homework...
Posted by SavageJ on 2011-02-14 06:21:13
Regen on the victim should also be considered.
Posted by RC on 2011-02-14 11:45:09
Sometimes its worth fouling a downed wolf just to get a stunn :)