RDaneel
Joined: Feb 24, 2023
|
  Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 13:23 |
 
|
I had a funny discussion in a specs chat which i want to share with you.
We were spectating a game Orcs vs Norse, Norse started the 1st drive receiving
Then we arrive at Turn 8 1st half.
Norse earlier had lost the ball had both valkiries out , APO used and 2 CAS suffered, where Orc suffered 1 only KO and was keeping the ball stolen in a previous turn: very bad situation for Norse's coach.
An Orc blitzer keeping the ball was at 7 squares from the TD and to score should make 1 rush.
Orcs used ALL rerolls and could make several blocks before scoring but already removed 4 players as I mentioned before.
Personally (but this is my way to play which can be wrong) in such situations i try immediatly to score.
A very famous coach during a final of a tournament in which I did all these blocks with 1 rr only before try to make a challenging TD ( 3+ 4+ i think) which would have allowed to win the tournament said to me “you have done a lot of unnecessary blocks risking to waste your unique reroll before try to score ” . At the time I was offended but maybe he was right (today this coach is rated top 10 on this site so maybe a little more experience than I have)
it is as it is returning to the Norse-vs-Orc match I commented in chat that make all these blocks without reroll was maybe risky.
Then One spec, let's call him "Specs1" told me the following
<Specs1> he wants to see a 1 before trying the rush
<me> why?
<Specs1> RNG
<Specs1> because [RNG] it's pseudo-random, not truly random  [...] you can even check pseudo-random there is a seed used to generate the numbers
<me> are you mathematician?
<specs1> no, but I experienced Cyanide pseudo-random seed
<specs1> the only difference is that here the seed is server-side and not hosted by one of the coaches
<specs1> people try to roll a 1 on AV rolls before trying a rush with 0 rrs
<specs1> in real random after a 1 there is the same chance of another 1 occurring
<specs1> in pseudo-random no, because there is a seed and a sequence
<specs1> feel free to search for pseudo-random generator and seed on wikipedia or in another place
<specs1> in Cyanide a guy found a way to read the seed
<specs1> because it was hosted by one of the coaches
<specs1> if you can read the seed you can predict the dice, here this is not possible because the seed is hosted on the server (not visibile to any coach)
<specs1> but on Cyanide the seed was hosted by one of the computers, thus, with a hack, it could be read and used to know the dice and [Name-of-the-hacker] made the hack, a guy from Canada
<specs1> and he made the hack to force Cyanide to change the way the seed was hosted or crypted
[... omissis...]
<specs1> the things I know is that RNG are not truly random and that the seed is not hosted by coaches
<specs1> thus can't be hacked
Now i am not a mathematician and i do not know which type of pseudo RNG is using FUMBBL but i am pretty sure that
making 3 more blocks to roll 2 or 3 armor dices waiting for some '1s' so then attempting the rush (telling himself: '1' came out is less likely to come out after), has mathematically negligible meaning
But since I am not a mathematician and did not develop the FUMBBL RNG myself I would appreciate it if some expert would confirm or not confirm these claims,
thanks |
_________________
To judge a man, one must at least know the secret of his thoughts, his misfortunes, his emotions, Balzac |
|
MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 13:31 |
|
|
Sp00keh
Joined: Dec 06, 2011
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 13:56 |
|
"using up your 1s" is ludicrous .. it's pure superstition and detrimental to risk management |
|
|
JackassRampant
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 13:58 |
|
Even if it were accurate (pretty sure it's not), it would have to be ironclad for the math to be favorable. |
_________________
Lude enixe, obliviscatur timor. |
|
Carthage
Joined: Mar 18, 2021
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 14:38 |
|
Christer RNG better than Cyanide RNG confirmed? |
|
|
koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 14:44 |
|
What a load of tin foil hat fake conspiracy news theory quackery.
Did you redact the name of the hacker yourself or did Fumbbl do that automatically? 
Anyway, that was BB1 when anyone could tweak their local database to make all their flings ST4 in multi-player. |
_________________
[SL] + Official Stunty teams. Progression KO. Old & new teams welcome. 29th May!
Last edited by koadah on %b %19, %2024 - %14:%May; edited 1 time in total |
|
Garion
Joined: Aug 19, 2009
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 14:44 |
|
Fumbbls rng re-seeds constantly. Which means searching for 1s is a waste of time. Firstly coz the next roll in the sequence could be a 1 anyway . Further - after rolling a 1 the seeding could re-seed to somewhere else in the sequence and mean they could land on a 1 again.
Cyanide original rng only seeded once then you got the rolls all predetermined from that point on and it didn't re-seed at any point in the sequence. They later fixed this |
_________________
 |
|
Nightbird
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 15:17 |
|
| koadah wrote: | What a load of tin foil hat fake conspiracy news theory quackery.
Did you redact the name of the hacker yourself or did Fumbbl do that automatically?
Anyway, that was BB1 when anyone could tweak their local database to make all their flings ST4 in multi-player. |
Thanks Koadah, that made my morning 
But can we please have the hack to make all flings ST4 
Heck I'll settle for ST3 |
_________________
"If most of us remain ignorant of ourselves, it's because self-knowledge is painful
& we prefer the pleasures of illusion." ~Aldous Huxley |
|
koadah
Joined: Mar 30, 2005
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 15:31 |
|
|
Malmir
Joined: May 20, 2008
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 16:26 |
|
Anyone who believes that rolling a 1 means the next roll is less likely to be a 1, just needs to watch me try and rr a gfi. |
|
|
MattDakka
Joined: Oct 09, 2007
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 17:03 |
|
You never fail a gfi in BB2020.  |
|
|
DauntlessFling
Joined: Feb 18, 2024
|
| Posted:
May 19, 2024 - 18:37 |
|
i believe it. I also believe skulls would have been a hard six and pows were ones, and other superstitious nonsense |
|
|
Dan123456
Joined: Nov 28, 2020
|
| Posted:
May 20, 2024 - 21:22 |
|
Haha this sounds suspiciously like my game... I recall exactly this moment, hoping he would continue to pummel away at me and maybe just maybe roll that quad skull or whatever before scoring. Anyway, I'm helpfully down to just 1x skilled Valkyrie now... trim that TV . |
|
|
Drrek
Joined: Jul 23, 2012
|
| Posted:
May 21, 2024 - 01:56 |
|
There's really no such thing as a "true" number randomizer, but in effect you can get so close that the distinction is meaningless.
Won't stop me from complaining that the RNG is out to get me, specifically. |
|
|
Amon242
Joined: Aug 02, 2003
|
| Posted:
May 21, 2024 - 04:36 |
|
Today on MegaCheatzzz Fumbbl Edition
-Pause blocking, how timing the RNG can improve your game
-Early GG, a prayer to Nuffle that he can't refuse
-Ready your team last, enrage your German opponent and ensure victory
-Foul without Dirty Player, cheat mode they don't tell you about |
|
|
|
|
RNG speculations
Search
