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2013-11-27 11:58:39
6 votes, rating 4.7
6 votes, rating 4.7
Analyze My Decision
In my last game I had a tough call to make. The decision I made didn't pay off, but I'm still pretty sure it was the right one. I've looked at an odds calculator but it was, let's just say inconclusive.
Right, the basics. I have the ball in the hands of my Blodging Skaven Thrower exactly 7 squares from the end zone, turn 7 second half, score tied at 1-1. My Thrower is being marked by A Block Guard Krox. I have a re-roll. Due to positioning of other players I can't get a 1d block on the Krox (not that I can see anyway).
My options are thus:
1) Dodge away (4+ with dodge) and score (75% success)
2) -2d Blitz on the Krox (with re-roll) and a single GFI to score.
According to the odds calculator if you count the push as a success the move is something like 68% success. But Both Down isn't a failure. Counting both down as a success improves the odds to over 90%, but Both Down isn't a success either. Instead both down affects nothing much, and still allows an attempt at option 1.
After much deliberation I attempted option 2. It didn't pay off. I rolled a skull and re-rolled a skull. I still think on balance it was probably the right choice.
Other options I didn't consider:
3) Leave the thrower standing still for a turn and let the Krox try and take him down. I didn't think I'd be in a better position next turn.
4) Any kind of passing play - quite risky for Underworld due to animosity and being in a TZ to boot.
There may be others I've missed.
So, what would you do?
Right, the basics. I have the ball in the hands of my Blodging Skaven Thrower exactly 7 squares from the end zone, turn 7 second half, score tied at 1-1. My Thrower is being marked by A Block Guard Krox. I have a re-roll. Due to positioning of other players I can't get a 1d block on the Krox (not that I can see anyway).
My options are thus:
1) Dodge away (4+ with dodge) and score (75% success)
2) -2d Blitz on the Krox (with re-roll) and a single GFI to score.
According to the odds calculator if you count the push as a success the move is something like 68% success. But Both Down isn't a failure. Counting both down as a success improves the odds to over 90%, but Both Down isn't a success either. Instead both down affects nothing much, and still allows an attempt at option 1.
After much deliberation I attempted option 2. It didn't pay off. I rolled a skull and re-rolled a skull. I still think on balance it was probably the right choice.
Other options I didn't consider:
3) Leave the thrower standing still for a turn and let the Krox try and take him down. I didn't think I'd be in a better position next turn.
4) Any kind of passing play - quite risky for Underworld due to animosity and being in a TZ to boot.
There may be others I've missed.
So, what would you do?
Comments
Posted by polemarch on 2013-11-27 12:08:57
On a skull re roll skull nothing would have worked anyway . Nuffle was against you!
Posted by Roland on 2013-11-27 12:11:15
gut says dodge
Posted by jamesfarrell129 on 2013-11-27 12:37:03
This has piqued my interest, being a stats geek... trying to run some maths while at work so I'll get back to you.
But the most important stat to remember is that a GFI into the endzone has approximately 75% chance of failure, so you should have gone for the dodge.
But the most important stat to remember is that a GFI into the endzone has approximately 75% chance of failure, so you should have gone for the dodge.
Posted by Cloggy on 2013-11-27 12:54:16
I think you make a mistake by counting the both down as a success. Getting a both down still leaves you needing the 4+ dodge, but now adds a GFI. That means it counts as less than neutral.
I don't do math much, but I think the dodge was the better play here.
I don't do math much, but I think the dodge was the better play here.
Posted by Roland on 2013-11-27 12:55:16
unlucky GFI turn 8 also...
turn 16 however, I would perhaps blocked the BC "The Heff" with your blitzer "chris" and the passed "Savio" with a goblin, but I understand the need for tackle here...
turn 16 however, I would perhaps blocked the BC "The Heff" with your blitzer "chris" and the passed "Savio" with a goblin, but I understand the need for tackle here...
Posted by SzieberthAdam on 2013-11-27 13:20:59
77,53% for (2) How?
P_-2D(no_skull) = 25/36
P_-2D(skull) = 1 - P_-2D(no_skull) = 11/36
P_-2D(least_push) = 16/36
P_-2D(nothing) = 1 - P_-2D(no_skull) - P_-2D(least_push) = 9/36
P_dodge = 1/2 * (1 + 1/2) = 3/4
P_gfi = 5/6
P_gfi_with_RR = P_gfi * (1 + 1/6) = 35/36
Now you have four scenarios (sum them for success):
1. Succesful pushback and score:
P_-2D(least_push) * P_gfi_with_RR = 35/81
2. Rerolled succesful pushback and score:
P_-2D(skull) * P_-2D(least_push) * P_gfi = 55/486
3. Nothing happens and dodge and score:
P_-2D(nothing) * P_dodge * P_gfi_with_RR = 35/192
4. Rerolled nothing happens and dodge and score:
P_-2D(skull) * P_-2D(nothing) * P_dodge * P_gfi = 55/1152
Note: 72.47% if you reroll no push result as you would do with a non-blocker.
P_-2D(no_skull) = 25/36
P_-2D(skull) = 1 - P_-2D(no_skull) = 11/36
P_-2D(least_push) = 16/36
P_-2D(nothing) = 1 - P_-2D(no_skull) - P_-2D(least_push) = 9/36
P_dodge = 1/2 * (1 + 1/2) = 3/4
P_gfi = 5/6
P_gfi_with_RR = P_gfi * (1 + 1/6) = 35/36
Now you have four scenarios (sum them for success):
1. Succesful pushback and score:
P_-2D(least_push) * P_gfi_with_RR = 35/81
2. Rerolled succesful pushback and score:
P_-2D(skull) * P_-2D(least_push) * P_gfi = 55/486
3. Nothing happens and dodge and score:
P_-2D(nothing) * P_dodge * P_gfi_with_RR = 35/192
4. Rerolled nothing happens and dodge and score:
P_-2D(skull) * P_-2D(nothing) * P_dodge * P_gfi = 55/1152
Note: 72.47% if you reroll no push result as you would do with a non-blocker.
Posted by Frankenstein on 2013-11-27 14:20:58
A -2d-block gives you an overall probability of 77.5%, if I haven't miscalculated (provided you don't reroll both down on the block).
Posted by Verminardo on 2013-11-27 14:32:19
It is very close at any rate. If you fail the Dodge, though, you get to make a normal armor roll. If you get Skulls on the -2db, you roll vs. MB. --> Preserve valuable player --> go for dodge. Imho.
Posted by mister__joshua on 2013-11-27 15:26:23
@SzieberthAdam: I'm going to believe that calculation, without checking it, because it makes my decision slightly more favourable. Still, that's tough arithmetic to do in a minute of game time :D
@Verminado: I didn't really consider that, which is a good point also. I had an Apoth spare though so he'd have undoubtedly tried to kill him either way :P
@Verminado: I didn't really consider that, which is a good point also. I had an Apoth spare though so he'd have undoubtedly tried to kill him either way :P
Posted by Naru1981 on 2013-11-27 16:53:21
why do people really care about the odds?
It's a game. Do the thing that would be funniest hahaha
if I knew I had 95% odds saying it will work and I failed I would be pissed to say the least.
however 95% odds saying I will fail, and it works out great for me, I would be laughing hard all the way to the TD line.
The reason I hate ppl doing these calculations each is due to a TT game I played. oppo was doing odds for EVERY BLOODY MOVE. (we had no turn time)
Just have fun instead of spending ages, (like you are now) trying to decide if you done the right thing.
It's a game. Do the thing that would be funniest hahaha
if I knew I had 95% odds saying it will work and I failed I would be pissed to say the least.
however 95% odds saying I will fail, and it works out great for me, I would be laughing hard all the way to the TD line.
The reason I hate ppl doing these calculations each is due to a TT game I played. oppo was doing odds for EVERY BLOODY MOVE. (we had no turn time)
Just have fun instead of spending ages, (like you are now) trying to decide if you done the right thing.
Posted by garyt1 on 2013-11-27 17:53:10
On the flip side of saying skulls will mean a mb hit there is also some chance of double pows (or dodge pows) and maybe a heroic cas on the Krox.
Posted by SzieberthAdam on 2013-11-27 18:01:10
@Stanley: Don't think I am doing this during a match! :) However, post calculations are good to make someone's intuition more sophisticated.
Posted by Eusebio on 2013-11-27 20:49:08
if you mark the crox with snoop one turn earlier you wouldnt have to make that that decision, also the fonz should have been marked and you get an easy td
Posted by uuni on 2013-11-27 20:53:50
I calculated following:
Successes:
push, gfi 0,37037037
push Xgfi, gfi 0,061728395
bdX, push, gfi 0,092592593
bdX, bd, dodge,gfi 0,0390625
skullX, push, gfi 0,113168724
skullX, bd, dodge, gfi 0,047743056
Fails:
push, gfiX, gfiX 0,012345679
bdX, push, gfiX 0,018518519
bdX, bd, dodge, gfiX 0,0078125
bdX, bd, dodgeX 0,015625
bdX, skullX 0,076388889
skullX, push, gfiX 0,022633745
skullX, bd, dodge, gfiX 0,009548611
skullX, bd, dodgeX 0,019097222
skullX, skullX 0,093364198
Successes total 0,724665638
Fails total 0,275334362
Successes + Fails 1,000000000
Dodge 4+ skill:
Successes total 0,75
Fails total 0,25
Dodge 4+ is better than blocking here.
***
There could be a scenario with goblin 1d blockings, but I think its less effective, as there are many 3+ rr dodges.
Successes:
push, gfi 0,37037037
push Xgfi, gfi 0,061728395
bdX, push, gfi 0,092592593
bdX, bd, dodge,gfi 0,0390625
skullX, push, gfi 0,113168724
skullX, bd, dodge, gfi 0,047743056
Fails:
push, gfiX, gfiX 0,012345679
bdX, push, gfiX 0,018518519
bdX, bd, dodge, gfiX 0,0078125
bdX, bd, dodgeX 0,015625
bdX, skullX 0,076388889
skullX, push, gfiX 0,022633745
skullX, bd, dodge, gfiX 0,009548611
skullX, bd, dodgeX 0,019097222
skullX, skullX 0,093364198
Successes total 0,724665638
Fails total 0,275334362
Successes + Fails 1,000000000
Dodge 4+ skill:
Successes total 0,75
Fails total 0,25
Dodge 4+ is better than blocking here.
***
There could be a scenario with goblin 1d blockings, but I think its less effective, as there are many 3+ rr dodges.
Posted by jdvmat on 2013-11-27 21:19:04
There is a chainpush (2 blocks of 2 dices each one with RR and push is success):
- Blitzer 2D-blitz the skink next to the gobbo to the southwest and positionate himself at the southeast of the new position of the skink.
- The free goblin moves now at the east of the saurus (southeast of the Kroxigor).
- The goblin at the north of the skink now 2D-block the skink to the southwest, so the goblin in that square pushes the kroxigor to the southwest.
- If the skink is down it's TD, if not you have 3+ dodge (only 1/9 chance of failure because the dodge skill).
- Blitzer 2D-blitz the skink next to the gobbo to the southwest and positionate himself at the southeast of the new position of the skink.
- The free goblin moves now at the east of the saurus (southeast of the Kroxigor).
- The goblin at the north of the skink now 2D-block the skink to the southwest, so the goblin in that square pushes the kroxigor to the southwest.
- If the skink is down it's TD, if not you have 3+ dodge (only 1/9 chance of failure because the dodge skill).
Posted by uuni on 2013-11-27 21:40:10
skink #10 has side step.
Posted by DeZigma on 2013-11-27 22:41:40
Hmmm...
Scenario 1: Dodge 4+ & RR = 75% to score TD --> max. 2 rolls!
Scenario 2: -2d Blitz/Dodge 4+/1x GFI & RR
MATRIX:
w/o RR --> in ...
[A] 30,6% (SK) = 100% no success (turnover by block)
[B] 25,0% (BD) = 58,3% no success
[C] 44,4% (PU) = 16,7% no success --> weighted success rate = 47,45%
using a RR by minimazing most no success means [A]--> results in following
[A] 9,3% (SK) = 100% no success (turnover by block)
[B] 32,6% (BD) = 58,3% no success
[C] 58,1% (PU) = 16,7% no success --> weighted success rate = 61,95%
For me clearly NO 1
Scenario 1: Dodge 4+ & RR = 75% to score TD --> max. 2 rolls!
Scenario 2: -2d Blitz/Dodge 4+/1x GFI & RR
MATRIX:
w/o RR --> in ...
[A] 30,6% (SK) = 100% no success (turnover by block)
[B] 25,0% (BD) = 58,3% no success
[C] 44,4% (PU) = 16,7% no success --> weighted success rate = 47,45%
using a RR by minimazing most no success means [A]--> results in following
[A] 9,3% (SK) = 100% no success (turnover by block)
[B] 32,6% (BD) = 58,3% no success
[C] 58,1% (PU) = 16,7% no success --> weighted success rate = 61,95%
For me clearly NO 1
Posted by Jeffro on 2013-11-27 23:09:37
In spite of all this math, here's what you missed:
You forgot to BELIEVE you would succeed.
;)
... that!.. is why you fail.
You forgot to BELIEVE you would succeed.
;)
... that!.. is why you fail.
Posted by pythrr on 2013-11-27 23:27:09
your mistake was thinking that this was a math decision.
you are a rat, he is a huge giant dinosaur.
run and dodge like a rat, you fool!
you are a rat, he is a huge giant dinosaur.
run and dodge like a rat, you fool!
Posted by DeZigma on 2013-11-27 23:49:42
Ahha as a mammalian he should have wait for a meteor!
Than he would have
- a kill,
- a wiped pitch
- and the TD.
Than he would have
- a kill,
- a wiped pitch
- and the TD.
Posted by bghandras on 2013-11-28 09:49:50
Did you consider the blitz, but not with the ball carrier? It saves from a dropped ball.
Posted by jamesfarrell129 on 2013-11-28 12:06:20
Another alternative: hand-off to the krox. He'd have never seen it coming. Then on your next turn, he'd have gone bone-head, you could have stolen the ball back and walked in with no dodges or GFIs needed.
I think my medication is kicking in...
I think my medication is kicking in...