Posted by m0gw41 on 2017-05-02 16:27:44

With no gfis needed:
18.5% for pick up, catch, pass, land (3+, 3+, 2+, 4+)
43.2% with rr

Modify with gfis using:
http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/

Working out the maths with ball and throw scatter will be tough but I am sure someone can do it!

Posted by ben_awesome on 2017-05-02 16:54:18

I know that and is multiplication and or is additive but if you take each roll as a standalone e.g.
75% * 75% * 83% * 50% for success
25% or 25% or 17% or 50% for failure

just goes to show that maybe its not as improbable as the maths makes you think.

Posted by ArrestedDevelopment on 2017-05-02 17:48:22

The problem with those calculations is they don't account for both scatter and opponent placement.

You can place to maximise chances of the fling landing in a tz, and the scatter can both end or maximise the ttm chance.

Posted by licker on 2017-05-02 19:10:30

He did say there was a touchback, so no pick up or catch.

After that, you do need to figure out scatter and how that affects gfis.

You'd have to have more information about opponents set up to determine if the landing roll needs to also be given the same treatment.

Also if the halfling is on the los so the tree can roll vs. take root to move forward one space.

But as a really generic question, sure, it's just the landing roll and a couple gfis. Pretty easy in the abstract there. You do need more information to give a more exact answer, or you can write up your own assumptions about how a blizzard or various screens affect everything.

Posted by JimmyFantastic on 2017-05-02 19:58:23

Yeah really complex to work out overall. Was hoping someone had done it all before but some decent stuff here, thanks guys.

Posted by thoralf on 2017-05-02 20:03:13

Substract for Blitz and Perfect Defense.

I thought Jimmy knew all the answers.

Posted by garyt1 on 2017-05-02 22:41:55

Scatter would be extremely complicated to work out as you would have to calculate the rolls required at every possible land location within range of your target square. but I think it should slightly reduce the chance overall as going nearer the endzone will just marginally improve the chances by removing gfis while scattering nearer the LOS makes the score impossible from that point.

Posted by m0gw41 on 2017-05-03 00:25:53

I think I've done it with the scatter. I think it's 118/512 to land in a position needing two gfis, 117/512 to land needing 1 gfi and 71/512 needing no gfis. The rest out of range. This means assuming the landing is good it's about 50:50 to make it from there. So with a touch back and no TZs you can assume 2+ pass 4+ land and 4+ for scatter and gfis if needed. About 21% without rr, 45% with rr. Feels about right, anyone wanna check my maths?

Posted by pokrjax on 2017-05-03 02:02:37

8x8x8=512

...that's as far as I got

Posted by paradocks on 2017-05-03 03:22:28

I'd be interested to know if someone thinks they've figured out the 100% most optimal way to place a side of 9 halflings and 2 trees to complete a TTM, or even the 100% most optimal defense against it with a side of 11 st3 players

Posted by PainState on 2017-05-03 16:49:51

There is no such thing as optimal....On a TTM attempt it is possible that the tree misses the throw and the fling flies 3 squares closer to the endzone than anticipated.

Thus there is no optimal set up to prevent a TTM, just a best defense if the ODDS do not go sideways and haywire and blow up your plan.


The odds for a TTM attempt with ball out of bounds and you just chunk the fling....around 20% is my best quess if you have a reroll...no reroll...it is around 5%

Posted by PainState on 2017-05-03 16:54:03

According to my stat calculator.

If the defense sets up in the traditional end line defense one off the end line.

Ball goes OB. Fling gets chunked.

4+ for accurate throw
4+ for landing
3X 3+ dodges to score

7.2% with out reroll
22.2% with reroll

NOW

A long list of variables that is to many to count..........

5% with out reroll
20% with reroll

Yep, looks good on the odds.

Posted by Dalfort on 2017-05-03 23:21:05

All TTM throws are inaccurate, thus the throw roll is only 2+ to avoid a fumble. I am more inclined to believe the actual figure is closer to the 45-50% mentioned above.

Of course it would be even higher if Sure Feet gave Right Sruff a Landing RR...

Posted by PainState on 2017-05-04 17:28:48

Well if the throw is always inaccurate and thus a 2+ roll on the toss.

Same example I laid out before.

2+ on Throw
4+ on landing
3 X 3+ Dodges.

12.346% with out reroll
32.922% with reroll

Throw in all the random variables.....

5% with out reroll
20% with reroll