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2013-05-19 18:14:51
29 votes, rating 3.3
29 votes, rating 3.3
A Losing Dodge?
It's been a marathon of GLT games today, but there was a moment in the game that Purplegoo lost to Reisender that's worth highlighting. It was a case where I think tactics supercede dice, because IMHO the dice required had already been rolled.
Let's preface it by saying that dice can win games. Great dice beats great tactics most of the time. When you get two top coaches playing, usually the one with the better dice will come out on top.
Purplegoo and Reisender are two top coaches. In a tournament game there is the pressure and time constraints to deal with. I've wilted many a time. This is not in any way a criticism of Goo.
On balance, it looked grim for Purplegoo. Lots of players out, a wizard failure, he was reduced to a hail mary blitz and a ballsy reroll (his last, mind) of a push and pow into a double dodge-pow turned the tie on it's head. He played his turn almost entirely brilliantly, right until the last moment.
To quote Goo: "I'm told there was some debate in spec chat as to whether the Dodge should have been attempted at all, but two cups of tea and some maths later, I'm still not sure that's the correct view."
This is where he was up to. The critical player skills are shown. The skaven blitzer in question is the one currently putting the moving catcher in a tackle zone. There is no other tackle for Reisender to call upon.
Goo then attempted to move the catcher 1 more space to mark the ball, and the dodge failed.
He later commented [paraphrased] that it was important to get markers on the ball.
I think Goo was playing on instinct here. The instinct is to mark the ball - after all, more markers makes for a harder pick up (there's no big hand on the field). I think his maths is instinct based too, but I think he's missing the point.
IMHO, Goo already has the important marker on the ball - the blodge side stepping diving tackler. Goo's main concern should be making sure that the ball and DTer can't easily be parted, because the DTer is the chief threat to retrieving the ball.
The main threat to the DTer is the ST4 tackler.
Given the position of the ball, if Goo leaves the catcher marking the ST4 tackler, it can't easily reach the DTer. The ball prevents the direct dodge, leaving either a 3+ 4+ or clearing a path which is nigh impossible since the other elf catcher was an ST4 side stepper. All the linerats were without skills, and the elves have the tactical advantage.
Let's forgive Goo the dodge fail. Assuming the dodge succeeds, I think he's in a worse position than when he's marking the ST4 tackler. There is now an easy route with a dodge to blitz the DTer for starters. Or there's the alternative which is blitzing the catcher into the ball, the scatter with a 5 in 8 chance of moving away from the DTer on the 1st scatter.
I think when the catcher was in the position marking the ST4 tackler, Reis probably had his butt clenched and his hands ready to receive a drooping head. As soon as the dodge made - and especially failed - he probably let out a large sigh of relief because until that point he had looked in dire trouble. Instead he 2+ dodges, blitzes the DTer, takes it down, and with gutter runners the rest is easy.
I think Goo is looking at the wrong maths. I'll take it a step further - I think if he does not make that dodge (success or fail), he is favourite to score from there and probably win the game.
Of course, dice win games. Reis could have 1D POWed the DTer with a rookie linerat. Or he could have rolled a string of 6s with a gutter runner to steal it regardless. Or [more likely] come up with a more inventive way to hit the DTer. However they were all options that required far more risk than the alternative which Goo opted for - dodge success or not - where the ST4 tackler is a 2+ dodge away from being free.
Instead, I think Goo rolled 1 die too many and sacrificed a very strong position which put Reisender in a pickle for one that was always leaving Reisender decent options.
And as a reward to the readers who got this far; Goo's reaction to my idea of a blog on this matter...
<Purplegoo> I think you're on drugs, frankly. But whatever you like :)
<Purplegoo> I think being tactically analyzed by Chainsaw would be a new low in anyone's life, let alone mine
<Purplegoo> I better retire
Nah, you better not. Just play me and give me a schooling instead! ;D
Let's preface it by saying that dice can win games. Great dice beats great tactics most of the time. When you get two top coaches playing, usually the one with the better dice will come out on top.
Purplegoo and Reisender are two top coaches. In a tournament game there is the pressure and time constraints to deal with. I've wilted many a time. This is not in any way a criticism of Goo.
On balance, it looked grim for Purplegoo. Lots of players out, a wizard failure, he was reduced to a hail mary blitz and a ballsy reroll (his last, mind) of a push and pow into a double dodge-pow turned the tie on it's head. He played his turn almost entirely brilliantly, right until the last moment.
To quote Goo: "I'm told there was some debate in spec chat as to whether the Dodge should have been attempted at all, but two cups of tea and some maths later, I'm still not sure that's the correct view."
This is where he was up to. The critical player skills are shown. The skaven blitzer in question is the one currently putting the moving catcher in a tackle zone. There is no other tackle for Reisender to call upon.
Goo then attempted to move the catcher 1 more space to mark the ball, and the dodge failed.
He later commented [paraphrased] that it was important to get markers on the ball.
I think Goo was playing on instinct here. The instinct is to mark the ball - after all, more markers makes for a harder pick up (there's no big hand on the field). I think his maths is instinct based too, but I think he's missing the point.
IMHO, Goo already has the important marker on the ball - the blodge side stepping diving tackler. Goo's main concern should be making sure that the ball and DTer can't easily be parted, because the DTer is the chief threat to retrieving the ball.
The main threat to the DTer is the ST4 tackler.
Given the position of the ball, if Goo leaves the catcher marking the ST4 tackler, it can't easily reach the DTer. The ball prevents the direct dodge, leaving either a 3+ 4+ or clearing a path which is nigh impossible since the other elf catcher was an ST4 side stepper. All the linerats were without skills, and the elves have the tactical advantage.
Let's forgive Goo the dodge fail. Assuming the dodge succeeds, I think he's in a worse position than when he's marking the ST4 tackler. There is now an easy route with a dodge to blitz the DTer for starters. Or there's the alternative which is blitzing the catcher into the ball, the scatter with a 5 in 8 chance of moving away from the DTer on the 1st scatter.
I think when the catcher was in the position marking the ST4 tackler, Reis probably had his butt clenched and his hands ready to receive a drooping head. As soon as the dodge made - and especially failed - he probably let out a large sigh of relief because until that point he had looked in dire trouble. Instead he 2+ dodges, blitzes the DTer, takes it down, and with gutter runners the rest is easy.
I think Goo is looking at the wrong maths. I'll take it a step further - I think if he does not make that dodge (success or fail), he is favourite to score from there and probably win the game.
Of course, dice win games. Reis could have 1D POWed the DTer with a rookie linerat. Or he could have rolled a string of 6s with a gutter runner to steal it regardless. Or [more likely] come up with a more inventive way to hit the DTer. However they were all options that required far more risk than the alternative which Goo opted for - dodge success or not - where the ST4 tackler is a 2+ dodge away from being free.
Instead, I think Goo rolled 1 die too many and sacrificed a very strong position which put Reisender in a pickle for one that was always leaving Reisender decent options.
And as a reward to the readers who got this far; Goo's reaction to my idea of a blog on this matter...
<Purplegoo> I think you're on drugs, frankly. But whatever you like :)
<Purplegoo> I think being tactically analyzed by Chainsaw would be a new low in anyone's life, let alone mine
<Purplegoo> I better retire
Nah, you better not. Just play me and give me a schooling instead! ;D
Comments
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 18:49:28
Sorry to those that read it whilst I made further edits.
Posted by Purplegoo on 2013-05-19 19:09:29
I have no idea why this is interesting or worthy of your 'analysis'. I'm loathe to go into it very deeply, lest I become the latest subject of the Chainsaw publicity drive with an extended load of old rubbish in the comments section, but I humbly submit that your thoughts are erroneous. If you studied it properly, perhaps with a calculator and a fresh pair of eyes, you would come to a different conclusion, or at least you would submit that there is more than one way of looking at it. You have missed the point of the situation, and the possible outcomes, quite heavily above.
Nonetheless, I was behind all game, and this was simply gloss on what was a lost situation.
I shall not be commenting further and giving the troll oxygen. Especially one that can't read a situation properly!
Nonetheless, I was behind all game, and this was simply gloss on what was a lost situation.
I shall not be commenting further and giving the troll oxygen. Especially one that can't read a situation properly!
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 19:28:30
Thanks for the objective riposte.
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 19:48:35
OK... the maths.
1. You had a 1/6 or ~16.7% chance of being in a terrible position.
2a. 2+ for 2D on the DTer = ~75%
2b. (success in #1) 2+ 2+ for 2D on the DTer = ~68.5%
(free linerat to assist, 2+ dodge, 2+ gfi)
So the most favourable outcome leaves, assuming no crazy scatter, a 3+ pick up and 2+ dodge. Basically you're leaving it odds on for Reisender to cover the ball, successful dodge or not, or at best handing it to the Gods on the scatter.
Leave the catcher where he is? How do you get the tackler free? Now you've already improved the situation by giving Reis a puzzle to solve. The maths on that depends on what he'd do, but none of it is simple and all of it requires a ton more dice (and thus reduced odds). None of his gutters can get to the ball without 3+ dodges. He has to block the catcher and bring it down then a 3+ dodge just to get 2D on the DTer with a non-tackler. Or he has to 1D and put faith in the scatter. Or something else. It's a lot more complicated and a lot more likely to end in a positive situation where you have a few good odds rolls to score the next turn.
AMIWRONG?
1. You had a 1/6 or ~16.7% chance of being in a terrible position.
2a. 2+ for 2D on the DTer = ~75%
2b. (success in #1) 2+ 2+ for 2D on the DTer = ~68.5%
(free linerat to assist, 2+ dodge, 2+ gfi)
So the most favourable outcome leaves, assuming no crazy scatter, a 3+ pick up and 2+ dodge. Basically you're leaving it odds on for Reisender to cover the ball, successful dodge or not, or at best handing it to the Gods on the scatter.
Leave the catcher where he is? How do you get the tackler free? Now you've already improved the situation by giving Reis a puzzle to solve. The maths on that depends on what he'd do, but none of it is simple and all of it requires a ton more dice (and thus reduced odds). None of his gutters can get to the ball without 3+ dodges. He has to block the catcher and bring it down then a 3+ dodge just to get 2D on the DTer with a non-tackler. Or he has to 1D and put faith in the scatter. Or something else. It's a lot more complicated and a lot more likely to end in a positive situation where you have a few good odds rolls to score the next turn.
AMIWRONG?
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 19:58:17
There's also a big psychological difference between him opting to scatter by blitzing a player into the ball (which is basically conceding he can't get good odds on the ball recovery as is) and you opting to scatter by side stepping into it (a desperation defensive move).
Imagine he opts for the 3+ pick up and has to reroll it (a 1/3 chance of that occurring) then has to make a 4+ dodge without a reroll, how nervy is that?
Assuming other rolls go fine, he's left with a 3+ dodge with dodge, 3+ pick up, 4+ dodge with a gutter runner - which is a 54% chance assuming neither of the lineman had tackle. So now you're almost 50/50 on to literally have an incredibly good shot at a T6 score.
I don't like flipping coins, not at a critical moment like that. Do you think Reisender would?
Imagine he opts for the 3+ pick up and has to reroll it (a 1/3 chance of that occurring) then has to make a 4+ dodge without a reroll, how nervy is that?
Assuming other rolls go fine, he's left with a 3+ dodge with dodge, 3+ pick up, 4+ dodge with a gutter runner - which is a 54% chance assuming neither of the lineman had tackle. So now you're almost 50/50 on to literally have an incredibly good shot at a T6 score.
I don't like flipping coins, not at a critical moment like that. Do you think Reisender would?
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 19:59:06
T6 score or stall, I mean.
Posted by GAZZATROT on 2013-05-19 20:03:49
This kind of sums up why I don't tell anyone I play Blood Bowl.
Posted by easilyamused on 2013-05-19 20:32:18
Interesting read but 1 question?
Why did you feel the need to make this blog?
All well and good in hindsight but who really looks into every possble move to this extent during a match? Especially a major, or even has the time?
Why did you feel the need to make this blog?
All well and good in hindsight but who really looks into every possble move to this extent during a match? Especially a major, or even has the time?
Posted by Jeffro on 2013-05-19 20:37:02
No fecking pie?!?... what am I even here for then?..
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-19 20:46:46
@easilyamused
I just felt this was a pivotal moment. Goo had been gubered by dice and [rightfully] struggled because of it. However the dice turned to gold briefly and gave him a chance. (A story familiar to most matches.) Literally this 1 move at the end of the turn would either finesse the breakthrough (and really put Reisender in a tight spot) or be the final nail in the coffin barring freak dice.
There's frequently moments like this in a game, but rarely ones that pivot on such a small (1 square) difference at the end of a turn.
I just felt this was a pivotal moment. Goo had been gubered by dice and [rightfully] struggled because of it. However the dice turned to gold briefly and gave him a chance. (A story familiar to most matches.) Literally this 1 move at the end of the turn would either finesse the breakthrough (and really put Reisender in a tight spot) or be the final nail in the coffin barring freak dice.
There's frequently moments like this in a game, but rarely ones that pivot on such a small (1 square) difference at the end of a turn.
Posted by DaveH on 2013-05-19 20:47:49
Am I allowed to rate GAZZATROT's comment a 6?
Posted by jamesfarrell129 on 2013-05-19 22:07:29
Rated 6 for over-commenting on your own blog.
Why a 6? Why not...
Why a 6? Why not...
Posted by Mr_Foulscumm on 2013-05-20 00:31:07
Is it just me, or does this blog come across kind of douchey?
Posted by Nelphine on 2013-05-20 02:10:41
so chainsaw thinks marking the tackler is a good idea.
ok.
I blitz with the tackler, taking down your marking catcher. I then put myself on the corner Goo was trying to go. (chance of success: 75% without a re-roll; assuming i get 2 pushes, i still have a 83% of success without a re-roll, and I only have a 1/216 failure rate.)
Now, my S4 tackler is adjacent to the ball. My gutter makes a 3+ dodge with re-roll (8/9) makes a 3+ pick up (probably succeeding) and hands off to the S4 blitzer (3+). With a re-roll for the pick up/hand off, I have a 52/81 odds of success.
Now, I'm not saying that that's anything close to reisender's best option; now am I saying that the high elves couldn't recover from it even if the S4 guy got the ball. But that puts a gutter on the blodge/ss/dt that Chainsaw is so concerned about, and leaves 4 more rats with movement possibilities to mark the catcher, and block any other elf from getting remotely close to the ball, and it puts the free linerat in scoring range if the high elves can't get the ball next turn (since Reisender has so many re-rolls, scoring with a linerat is actually a possibility). And even if he doesn't successfully mark the catcher, at best that means a 1 die blitz on the S4, and no one good to pick it up again (we're talking less than 50% of successfully knocking him over, which doesn't do much about actually getting it.)
On the other side of things, the linemen could move up near the ss dt, the wrestle GR blitzes (8/9 to dodge, 65/81 to knockdown), the other GR grabs ball (8/9 1 dodge, 50/54 second dodge, 47/54 third dodge, 5/6 pick up).
That is not particularly bad odds either, and leaves the blodge GR surrounded by rats and none of the HEs have tackle.
Personally, I don't think the HE's had a good play here. The rats just had too many ways to reacquire the ball and get it downfield, and Goo failing that dodge simply made it happen faster.
ok.
I blitz with the tackler, taking down your marking catcher. I then put myself on the corner Goo was trying to go. (chance of success: 75% without a re-roll; assuming i get 2 pushes, i still have a 83% of success without a re-roll, and I only have a 1/216 failure rate.)
Now, my S4 tackler is adjacent to the ball. My gutter makes a 3+ dodge with re-roll (8/9) makes a 3+ pick up (probably succeeding) and hands off to the S4 blitzer (3+). With a re-roll for the pick up/hand off, I have a 52/81 odds of success.
Now, I'm not saying that that's anything close to reisender's best option; now am I saying that the high elves couldn't recover from it even if the S4 guy got the ball. But that puts a gutter on the blodge/ss/dt that Chainsaw is so concerned about, and leaves 4 more rats with movement possibilities to mark the catcher, and block any other elf from getting remotely close to the ball, and it puts the free linerat in scoring range if the high elves can't get the ball next turn (since Reisender has so many re-rolls, scoring with a linerat is actually a possibility). And even if he doesn't successfully mark the catcher, at best that means a 1 die blitz on the S4, and no one good to pick it up again (we're talking less than 50% of successfully knocking him over, which doesn't do much about actually getting it.)
On the other side of things, the linemen could move up near the ss dt, the wrestle GR blitzes (8/9 to dodge, 65/81 to knockdown), the other GR grabs ball (8/9 1 dodge, 50/54 second dodge, 47/54 third dodge, 5/6 pick up).
That is not particularly bad odds either, and leaves the blodge GR surrounded by rats and none of the HEs have tackle.
Personally, I don't think the HE's had a good play here. The rats just had too many ways to reacquire the ball and get it downfield, and Goo failing that dodge simply made it happen faster.
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-20 09:34:04
You could be right Nelphine.
@Fouly; if that's how it comes across, my bad.
@Fouly; if that's how it comes across, my bad.
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-20 09:43:01
@jamesfarrell; in a PM goo indicated there wasn't enough maths backing the opinions.
Posted by The_Murker on 2013-05-20 13:00:54
I don't know what's douchy about anything.. maybe some personal history, or chat back story we all don't know about. Maybe without the coach names this would be more acceptable to some, but who really cares.
If we had more oppertunities like this to look at key moments in games we all might learn this game faster, and raise the level of play further.
I hear someone talking quite often about how the level of play use to be better. This is the kind of thing that accelerates peoples learning.. analysing the game when not involved.
It improves your game, and learning something when off-line and putting it in your memory bank so you don't have to analyse it a lot when you see it again later makes your play FASTER. And speed is something many people complain about.
Thanks for the oppertunity to look at a situation chainsaw.
If we had more oppertunities like this to look at key moments in games we all might learn this game faster, and raise the level of play further.
I hear someone talking quite often about how the level of play use to be better. This is the kind of thing that accelerates peoples learning.. analysing the game when not involved.
It improves your game, and learning something when off-line and putting it in your memory bank so you don't have to analyse it a lot when you see it again later makes your play FASTER. And speed is something many people complain about.
Thanks for the oppertunity to look at a situation chainsaw.
Posted by The_Murker on 2013-05-20 16:44:25
Looking at the play.. if you leave the elf next to the ST4 tackle blitzer there is every expectation he gets taken out of the play next turn. And if he does, that leaves a 2d block with reroll on the side-stepper from the top free skaven. Not a great feeling.
If he had made the dodge, the skaven blitzer would have had to GFI just to get one defender off the ball, then dodges and a pickup after.
For the sake of one 2+ dodge, the skaven would have had to roll alot of dice.
Without the dodge, the skaven only have to make one 8/9 dodge to go for a 2d POW on the super elf. Both kinda suck, but the 1 in 6 gamble seems worth it.
If he had made the dodge, the skaven blitzer would have had to GFI just to get one defender off the ball, then dodges and a pickup after.
For the sake of one 2+ dodge, the skaven would have had to roll alot of dice.
Without the dodge, the skaven only have to make one 8/9 dodge to go for a 2d POW on the super elf. Both kinda suck, but the 1 in 6 gamble seems worth it.
Posted by Reisender on 2013-05-20 18:14:15
Chainsaw "There's also a big psychological difference..."
Sledge: They tried to play on my subconscious, but they forgot one important thing ...
Captain Trunk: What's that?
Sledge: I don't have a subconscious.
On Pgoos move: i dont think it was a mistake, however i am not sure how i would have played it. You forget there´s the chance to make the roll and get the ball....
On the other hand: I think i commited a bigger mistake by letting Purplegoo score so easily in that match (wasn´t too easy rolls, by i had been beating on the elves in a way i could have forced much harder dice.... just by placing 1 gutter runner differently in that turn (not marking his linemen but closiong in on the catcher, too)
Sledge: They tried to play on my subconscious, but they forgot one important thing ...
Captain Trunk: What's that?
Sledge: I don't have a subconscious.
On Pgoos move: i dont think it was a mistake, however i am not sure how i would have played it. You forget there´s the chance to make the roll and get the ball....
On the other hand: I think i commited a bigger mistake by letting Purplegoo score so easily in that match (wasn´t too easy rolls, by i had been beating on the elves in a way i could have forced much harder dice.... just by placing 1 gutter runner differently in that turn (not marking his linemen but closiong in on the catcher, too)
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-05-21 14:34:17
It's definitely not as clear cut as I have made it out to be in the blog post. However, I still think he was in a better position before the dodge. I can't see a way out that doesn't involve 3+ dodging for you Reisender, which at that stage of the game is going to be nervy.